Lemming Tracks: 'And We're All Gonna Die!' or, not

The Lemming explained the sort of 'apathy' you'll find in this blog. It's not that the Lemming doesn't care about stuff. The Lemming just doesn't care about the 'right' stuff. Like how hopelessly awful everything always is.

Remember how the oceans would be dead by 1980? But it didn't matter, because the coming ice age would wipe out civilization?

Then there was the horrible death by starvation of all humanity that happened last year. Or would have, if the Lemming's deliberately screwball logic had been valid.

That particular doomsday prediction showed up in another blog by the Lemming:

Homo Sapiens, Statistics, and Silly Assumptions

"7,000,000,000 People, More or Less: Why I'm Not Alarmed"
A Catholic Citizen in America (October 31, 2011)

"Depending on who you listen to, the 7,000,000,000th member of humanity was born at two minutes past midnight today. Or, not. Since we don't have absolutely accurate, up-to-date, and verifiable statistics for everyone, that 'seven billionth' person is an educated guess.¹

"Still, 7,000,000,000 is a whole lot more folks than live here in Sauk Centre, Minnesota. Or in Minnesota's Minneapolis-Saint Paul metropolitan area, for that matter.

"I did a little checking, and found out that everybody's going to die horribly in maybe a month or so: If I make a few assumptions. Here's the data I started with. To the best of my knowledge, it's accurate:²..."

The data is accurate enough. What the Lemming did with the data in that post was anything-but.

Next time you read about 'sustainable' something: think about assumptions that may have been made.

Here's what the Lemming came up with, in October of last year:

"'Absolute maximum sustainable human population' for Earth, under ideal conditions, using:"

• All land, including Antarctica
  • 8,364,000
• All land, and water
  • 28,135,000
• Current world population (estimate)
  • 7,000,000,000

" 'Obviously,' we're doomed!"
(A Catholic Citizen in America)

That's because today, humanity's population is somewhere between a few hundred and a thousand times over Earth's 'sustainable' 'carrying capacity' for our species.

And has been for some time now.

What's Wrong With This Picture?

What the Lemming did was take quite real data about how much land it takes to support one human being. Assuming that the human being:

• Is a large omnivore
  • True, as far as that goes
• Has decided to stick with hunting and gathering
  • True, for a miniscule fraction of humanity
  • Nearly all human beings use agriculture
    • Directly or indirectly
    • And have, for the last 10,000 years

The problem today isn't producing enough food: it's getting the food to folks who need it.

Real Problems, Weird Solutions

This isn't a perfect world. Not even close. One of the problems is that some folks are living in really terrible conditions - because other folks aren't behaving like good neighbors. That's an enormous oversimplification, but the Lemming's already got a long post here.

The solutions - in the Lemming's considered opinion - involve short-term and long-term goals. In the short term, getting food and medical supplies to folks who need them is important: even if their 'betters' don't want to cooperate. In the long term, there isn't a social or economic system on the planet that couldn't use improvement.

And, in some cases, radical change.

None of the solutions, again in the Lemming's considered opinion, should involve making sure that people with darker-than-European skin stop having 'too many' babies. And that's another topic, for another blog. (A Catholic Citizen in America (May 6, 2010))

Related posts:

• Homo sapiens (and otherwise)
  • "Shirley Booth Didn't Kill Lincoln at a Ford Dealership?"
    (January 3, 2011)
  • "Lemming Tracks: Ice Age, Global Warming, Climate Change, and Living Scared"
    (November 19, 2010)
  • "Neanderthals, Teeth, Us, and an Ongoing Puzzle"
    (June 25, 2010)
  • "Tanning Beds, Addiction, and Pale Mutants"
    (April 21, 2010)
  • "Homo Erectus, Kitchens, and Human (Pre)History"
    (December 21, 2009)
• Getting a grip
  • " The Catholic Church, a Changing World, and New Forms of Political Participation "
    A Catholic Citizen in America (March 12, 2012)
  • "Upset Applecarts: A Hopeful Sign"
    A Catholic Citizen in America (March 5, 2012)
  • "Horses, Gothic Cathedrals, and a Faith That Matters"
    A Catholic Citizen in America (July 9, 2011)
    Particularly
    • "Horses and the End of Civilization, ca. 1900
  • "Minnesota Bishops, Immigrants, Papers and Justice"
    A Catholic Citizen in America (June 30, 2010)
  • "Sustainable African Development: And Swift's Modest Proposal"
    A Catholic Citizen in America (May 6, 2010)

Here Comes Another Martian Conspiracy Theory

Move over, face on Mars, there's a new conspiracy theory coming - maybe.

"Armchair Astronomer Finds 'Evidence' of Life on Mars"
FoxNews.com (June 6, 2011)



"NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab is investigating a California armchair astronomer's claim that a white, fuzzy image on the red planet's surface might be evidence of life.

"David Martines' YouTube video is heading for viral status after he uploaded a flyby of Google Earth's Mars explorer zooming in on a white, cylindrical object.

"The object, according to Martines, is 'about 700 feet long and 150 feet wide.' He's calling it 'Bio Station Alpha, because I'm just assuming that something lives in it or has lived in it.'

"His video was uploaded May 28, and has already been watched nearly 750,000 times.

"A spokesman for NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab told FoxNews.com it was investigating the wild claims, speculating that 'Bio Station Alpha' would most likely be determined to be a glitch in the digital imaging or an unusual feature on the surface of the planet -- and not a Martian base....

"...But who's responsible? Martines says it's unlikely to be NASA.

" 'I don't know if they could pull off such a project without all the people seeing all the material going up there,' he said. 'I sort of doubt NASA has anything to do with this. I don't know if NASA even knows about this.'

"Google's imagery comes from many different locations, a company spokeswoman said, and glitches and errors can be introduced in many ways...."

The FoxNews.com article mentions the old "face on Mars" thing - which can be taken as proof they FoxNews.com is part of the conspiracy. The Lemming doesn't think there's a conspiracy to be part of - so the Lemming's in on it, too: using the same (logic? reasoning?).

NASA and the Amateur Astronomers

NASA is taking a look at the 'bio station' claim - which the Lemming thinks makes good sense. If the fuzzy white streak isn't an image processing glitch, something isn't the same color as the surrounding terrain.

The area that's getting attention is near one of the Martian poles - where carbon dioxide is part of the polar ice cap. The odds are pretty good that if there really is a feature on Mars where that image shows a streak, it's probably at least partly dry ice. In the Lemming's opinion.

Whatever that whitish mark is, the Lemming doesn't think it's something artificial on Mars. At least, that's among the much-less-likely explanations, in the Lemming's opinion.

This wouldn't be the first time folks were convinced they saw engineering projects on the red planet. By the way, one of the more likely explanations for the enduring canals of Mars is that they're the result of intelligent life - on our end of the telescope. (March 14, 2009)

The Lemming isn't cautious about assuming that the mark on Mars isn't artificial because an "armchair astronomer" noticed it. Amateur astronomers are just as serious as their paid counterparts - the difference is that they observe even when they're not getting grant money. That's a little unfair - but the Lemming thinks "armchair astronomer" may not be the best choice of words. The skyandtelescope.com magazine is a pretty good place to start looking at what astronomers, amateur and otherwise, are doing.

NASA has taken note of what amateurs noticed in the wealth of data sent back by probes before: like the Martian cave discovered by a seventh grade class. (June 22, 2010)

Space Aliens On Mars? That'd be Great, But - - -

The Lemming would love for "Bio Station Alpha" to really be something built by space aliens - or Martians. It's supposed to be at 71 49'19.73"N 29 33'06.53"W on Mars, by the way.

Assuming that it's space alien technology requires quite a few assumptions - including that there are space aliens to put it there. Other explanations require not quite so many assumptions, so the Lemming's not expecting this to be a "First Encounters" situation.

If the Lemming were writing a story, that bright streak wouldn't be any of the possibilities that Mr. Martines mentioned:

"...'It could be a powerstation or it could be a biological containment or it could be a glorified garage -- hope it's not a weapon.'

" 'Whoever put it up there had a purpose I'm sure. I couldn't imagine what the purpose was. I couldn't imagine why anybody would want to live on Mars.'..."

An (extremely unlikely) explanation is that it's a spaceship. One whose pilot almost managed to land safely on Mars. Recently. Within the last year or so. It was a hard landing, which explains why the fuselage is bent and even broken in a few places. Since there don't seem to be signs of activity around it, there probably weren't survivors. Although that short feature coming out from the fuselage, on the viewer's right, about a quarter of the way from the lower end, might be a deployed exit chute.

Does the Lemming think this is possible? Yes, barely.

Does the Lemming think it's likely that there's a crashed spaceship on Mars, that it's not one of ours, and that the pilot might have gotten a distress call out before going down? In the Lemming's considered opinion, that's a great deal less likely than the Lemming winning the lottery.

Still, it could make a dandy story.

Somewhat-related posts:

• "Beware Warmonger Imperialist Space Aliens!?"
  (January 11, 2011)
• "Gliese 581g, Alien Angst, and the Lemming"
  (October 4, 2010)
• "Nuclear Weapons, Space Aliens, Conspiracy Theories, and Getting a Grip"
  (September 24, 2010)
• " 'All We Want is Peace and Quiet' - Another Look at the Mind of the Alien"
  Drifting at the Edge of Time and Space (December 9, 2009)
• "DNA - A Universal Pattern? Could Be"
  (April 8, 2009)

---

Other posts, about

• "Mars, Mostly"

Related posts, at

• "A Serious Search for Other Worlds, Life, and - Maybe - Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence"

Language - Not Hard-Wired After All, (Not Very, Anyway)

The Lemming's going heavy on the excerpts in this post - mostly because this is a fascinating article. In the Lemming's opinion.

Your experience may vary.

What jumped out at the Lemming in this Wired Science article was that the old assumption - that human beings are more-or-less hard-wired for language - doesn't, quite, hold up when languages are run through a massive statistical analysis.

On the other hand, there does seem to be a sort of 'preferred pattern.'

---

Thousands of Years, Thousands of Languages: Few Common Structures

"Evolution of Language Takes Unexpected Turn"
Brandon Keim, Wired Science, Wired (April 14, 2011)

"It's widely thought that human language evolved in universally similar ways, following trajectories common across place and culture, and possibly reflecting common linguistic structures in our brains. But a massive, millennium-spanning analysis of humanity's major language families suggests otherwise.

"Instead, language seems to have evolved along varied, complicated paths, guided less by neurological settings than cultural circumstance. If our minds do shape the evolution of language, it's likely at levels deeper and more nuanced than many researchers anticipated.

" 'It's terribly important to understand human cognition, and how the human mind is put together,' said Michael Dunn, an evolutionary linguist at Germany's Max Planck Institute and co-author of the new study, published April 14 in Nature. The findings 'do not support simple ideas of the mind as a computer, with a language processor plugged in. They support much-more complex ideas of how language arises.'..."

---

"Human Mind?" or "Human Brain?"

The Lemming prefers to distinguish between the brain - the complicated network of neurons, blood vessels, and connective tissue about our eyes and ears - and the mind - the way that the we use the brain.

Then there are the folks who say that you're not really there - you just think you are, but actually it's just your brain fooling you into thinking you exist. The Lemming was never 'intelligent' enough to take that sort of thing seriously, though - besides, that's another topic.

Back to the article.

---

Hard-Wired for Language? It's Complicated

"...One school of thought, pioneered by linguist Noam Chomsky, holds that language is a product of dedicated mechanisms in the human brain. These can be imagined as a series of switches, each corresponding to particular forms of grammar and syntax and structure...."

"...Unlike earlier linguists, however, Dunn and Gray had access to powerful computational tools that, when set to work on sets of data, calculate the most likely relationships between the data. Such tools are well known in evolutionary biology, where they're used to create trees of descent from genetic readings, but they can be applied to most anything that changes over time, including language.

"In the new study, Dunn and Gray's team created evolutionary trees for eight word-order features in humanity's best-described language groups — Austronesian, Indo-European, Bantu and Uto-Aztecan. Together they contain more than one-third of humanity's 7,000 languages, and span thousands of years. If there are universal trends, say Dunn and Gray, they should be visible, with each language family evolving along similar lines.

"That's not what they found.

" 'Each language family is evolving according to its own set of rules. Some were similar, but none were the same,' said Dunn. 'There is much more diversity, in terms of evolutionary processes, than anybody ever expected.'


(Nature, via wired, used w/o permission)
"Comparison of trends in Austronesian and Indo-European languages (Nature)"

"In one representative example of divergence (diagram above), both Austronesian and Indo-European languages that linked prepositions and object-verb structures ('over the fence, ball kicked') tended to evolve preposition and verb-object structures ('over the fence, kicked ball.') That’s exactly what universalism would predict.

"But when Austronesian and Indo-European languages both started from postposition, verb-object arrangements ('the fence over, kicked ball'), they ended up in different places. Austronesian tended towards preposition, verb-object ('over the fence, kicked ball') but Indo-European tended towards postposition, object-verb ('the fence over, ball kicked.')..."

The researchers figure that random chance, "cultural circumstance," or maybe something else, has something to do with the differences between languages. The Lemming figures they're probably right - given the broad swath of possibilities cited.

A little more seriously: It's the Lemming's impressed that the researchers didn't take their conclusions beyond the data they'd collected - and their analysis of that data.

---

Hard-Wired for Language? What They Didn't Find

"...There is, however, still room for universals, said Pagel. After all, even if culture and circumstance shapes language evolution, it's still working with a limited set of possibilities. Of the six possible combinations of subject, verb and object, for example, just two - 'I kicked the ball' and 'I the ball kicked'- are found in more than 90 percent of all languages, with Yoda-style 'Kicked I the ball' exceedingly rare. People do seem to prefer some structures...."

"...People do seem to prefer some structures...?" Maybe not consciously - but the Lemming would be mightily surprised if the hardware in our heads didn't make it easier to put ideas in one order - and not so much in another.

As for metaphysical stuff like the meaning of life and all that? The Lemming doesn't expect to find such things answered in a statistical analysis of languages. What the Lemming expects from this study - and the more in-depth analyses planned by Dunn and his team - are insights into how people use language. And, maybe, how we organize information: how, in one sense of the word, we think.

That expectation comes from the Lemming's view of science. It's like the fellow said: the task of science "was and remains a patient yet passionate search for the truth about the cosmos, about nature and about the constitution of the human being."^sup And that is another topic, for another blog. (A Catholic Citizen in America (October 30, 2010))


Slightly-related posts:

• "What's With 'Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo.' "
  (April 7, 2011)
• "Friday, Rome, Language, and Boudicca of the Iceni"
  (October 29, 2010)
• "A New Language in India: New to Outsiders, That is"
  (October 7, 2010)
• "Babies and Language: What We Hear is What We Cry?"
  (November 8, 2009)
• "Language, Verbs, and How Our Brains Work"
  (October 17, 2007)

---

¹ From:

• "Address of His Holiness Benedict XVI to Participants in the Plenary Session of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences"
  Benedict XVI (October 28, 2010 )

Marathon Runners: Human and Otherwise

"The Animal Kingdom's Top Marathoners"
Brian Resnick, Popular Mechanics (undated)

"Compared to other land mammals, humans are remarkably good at running long distances. Our upright posture and ability to shed heat—through sweating—are what allow people to run more than 20 miles during a race. Very few other animals can sustain such distances, especially at the speeds that top human athletes perform. But there is plenty of competition out there—nature is full of species adapted for running distance. Here's a look at six of the best marathoners in the animal kingdom, from slowest to fastest...."

"More than 20 miles? Make that 100-plus. The Lemming will get back to that.

This six-part slide show starts with horses:

"...Through years of selective breeding, racehorses have gained a built-in biological mechanism for efficient blood—the kind that certain human athletes can only achieve by doping. 'When they start to exercise, their spleen will kick out a whole bunch of red bloods cells into their system, into their cardiovascular system to make the oxygen carrying capacity of their blood go up,' says Peter Weyand, professor of physiology and biomechanics at Southern Methodist University....

"For the last 30 years, the Welsh town of Llanwrtyd Wells has hoted [!] a 22-mile, man-versus-horse race. Humans have only won the race twice, but top runners usually only finish 10 minutes after the animals. Where horses exceed in oxygen efficiency, humans make up for in temperature regulation. In the beginning of the race the horses tend to have a 30 minute lead, but toward the end, that advantaged is cut to a couple of minutes. Over the course of the race, humans are more efficient at expelling heat—not to mention they aren't running with a rider on their back. On a hot day, humans can win much more easily."

Yeah: a rider would slow a horse down. In principle. The photo showed riderless horses - which raised the question of what motivated the horses to keep going.

My guess is that if Llanwrtyd Wells extended their race a few miles, the horses wouldn't do nearly as well. They're wonderful animals: but, well, they're just not human.

The Lemming did a little research, about a year ago. Among other things, I compared winning times for two races that covered about 100 miles: one run by humans, the other by horses. The top human runners did just slightly better than the horse.

There's more to those numbers, though. The horses ran along an idyllic course: "flat with grassy and gravel surface. No hills, shaded." The humans? Our species decided that it'd be interesting to run 100.2 miles in the "Sierra mountains of California. ... cold, heat, mountains...." And the top runners still beat the horses.

The Popular Mechanics slide show has one page for humans:

"...One major difference between humans and animals is that we don't have in-born endurance; we have to train. Peter Weyand says that compared to other animals, humans have a high energy cost of running—we spend more energy in each stride relative to our size...."

On the other hand, we're really good at dumping heat. There's an 'up' side to the way we sweat. And - as the article points out - we can want to go faster, farther.

Then there's the ostrich: an improbable-looking bird with legs whose length is mostly tendon. That tendon acts like a rubber band or - as the article put it - pogo stick, storing energy when that leg hits the ground and releasing it later in the stroke. No wonder ostriches can average 30 miles an hour over a 20-mile course.

As for deciding that it'd be a good idea to have a long-distance endurance race over terrain like California's Sierras? Well, maybe someday we'll discover that homo sapiens sapiens is - crazy. I've discussed this possibility in another post. (December 5, 2009)

Related post:

• "How Fast Can People Run? Depends on How Far"
  (September 15, 2009)

Social Media and - Old Web Habits?!

"Social Media Changes Old Web Habits"
PCWorld (August 2, 2010)

"Social media now consume 23 percent of our time online, stealing time away from e-mail, reading news, and spending time at portals such as Yahoo.com, according a recent Nielsen study.

"Social Media Changes Old Web HabitsThe study tracked the online activity of 200,000 American users from June 2009 to June 2010. Time invested on social networking sites grew nearly 50 percent -- from 16 percent to 23 percent -- and that social gaming surpassed e-mail to take the number two position. Americans now log an average of six hours per month twiddling thumbs on social networks.

"Though e-mail usage dropped on desktops -- declining to 8.3 percent from 12 percent -- it remains dominant on mobile devices, occupying 42 percent of our smartphone time in comparison to 37 percent last year...."

Once again, research demonstrates that change happens. Which keeps things interesting.

And here's something about my demographic, "Americans over 50:"

"...Social networkers aren't just teenyboppers anymore, either. Nielsen discovered that twice as many Americans over 50 visited social networks than kids under 18. That means your mom and dad aren't the only 'hip' parents out there with Facebook pages...."

I suppose I could contribute some of the conventional hand-wringing about 'really' communicating and how thing just aren't the way they used to be: but others are doing a fine job with that sort of thing. Besides, I like Information Age technology.

(On Twitter, I'm Aluwir.)

Related post:

• "The Web Rewires Your Brain: Ain't That Great?"
  (July 2, 2010)

Portland, Oregon: Watch Your (Cyber)Wallet

"What's the Riskiest City for Web Surfing?"
FOXNews (March 22, 2010)

"You probably won't be mugged in smaller cities like Portland, Ore., but you're more likely to have your cyberwallet picked.

"Those same factors that are likely to boost a city's civic pride -- prevalence of Wi-Fi hot spots, a cyber-savvy populace and so on -- also make citizens more likely to be at risk for cybercrime, finds a new study released Monday morning.

"The data comes from Symantec's Security Response group, which in conjunction with research firm Sperling's BestPlaces just released a list of the 10 riskiest online cities. In the study, the company compared the number of cyberattacks against several potential risk factors, including the prevalence and speed of Internet access, usage, how much citizens spend on computer gear, and how likely they are to shop online.

"Regardless of the size of the city, score high on those marks and the crooks will find you...."

I live in Minnesota, and one of the cities in this state made the top 10:

1. Seattle
2. Boston
3. Washington, D.C.
4. San Francisco
5. Raleigh, NC
6. Atlanta, GA
7. Minneapolis, MN
8. Denver, CO
9. Austin, TX
10. Portland, OR

There's a list to the top 50 American cities in this risk category in the article. If you didn't see your home state in the top 10, there's still hope. If that's the right word.

Finally, a sort of heads-up from the article. You probably already know this, but:

"...Cybercrime isn't made up of anonymous, blanket attacks any more. 'That's changed a lot in the past two years,' says [Norton Internet Safety Advocate Marian] Merritt, pointing out the increase in 'spear fishing,' where criminals target the high-profile (and wealthier) executives at organizations...."

Earthquakes, Nuclear Winter, the End of the World, and All That

"Big quake question: Are they getting worse?"
LiveScience, via MSNBC (February 27, 2010)

"Seismic shockers are to be expected, but planet seems to be more active"

"Chile is on a hotspot of sorts for earthquake activity. And so the 8.8-magnitude temblor that shook the region overnight was not a surprise, historically speaking. Nor was it outside the realm of normal, scientists say, even though it comes on the heels of other major earthquakes.

"One scientist, however, says that relative to the time period from the mid-1970s to the mid-1990s, Earth has been more active over the past 15 years or so...."

'And we're all gonna die?'

I don't doubt that there's more tectonic activity each year now, than in the mid-70s. That was then, this is now: and natural events do seem to go in cycles. We call the weather cycle that's associated with Earth's orbit "seasons." There may be patterns of earthquakes and volcanism that we don't know about yet.

But in answer to the 'screamer' headline on this topic in another source, "Is nature out of control?" - I rather doubt it.

On the other hand, if I had the ethical deficit it would take to do so: I could probably make quite a lot of money by writing a book about how the world was coming to an end. In about four or five years, to give people plenty of time to buy copies.

Maybe I'd take pronouncements of doom more seriously, if I hadn't seen so many come and go as the decades rolled by: and hadn't taken the trouble to sort out facts and assertions - and research the facts.

More about change and getting a grip, at:

• "Frail, Delicate Little Mother Nature?!"
  (December 20, 2009)
• "Global Warming, End Times - 'We're All Gonna Die' Over the Last 45 Years Or So (Who Knew?)
  A Catholic Citizen in America (October 3, 2009)
• "Cosmic Rays: Strongest in 50 Years"
  (September 30, 2009)
• "The Ice is Falling! Runaway Melt Mode"
  (September 23, 2009)
• "'Perfect Solar Storm' 150 Years Ago Today: Good News; Bad News"
  (September 2, 2009)
• "Emotions, the Frontal Cortex, The War on Terror, Anarchists, and the Illuminati"
  Another War-on-Terror Blog (December 23, 2008)
• "Change, American Culture, Trilobites, Humanity's History, and the Big Picture"
  (last updated February 28, 2010)

Tut's Curse: "Makes for a Great Story"

"King Tut’s Many Curses"
Discovery News (February 22, 2010)

"...'When Tut's tomb was discovered and opened in 1922, it was a major archaeological event. In order to keep the press at bay and yet allow them a sensational aspect with which to deal, the head of the excavation team, Howard Carter, put out a story that a curse had been placed upon anyone who violated the rest of the boy-king.' In fact, the tombs of all royalty—not just Tutankhamun's—were reputed to be cursed, as part of a folkloric effort to deter looters and grave robbers. Other royal tombs with exactly the same 'curse' had been opened without doom befalling their excavators, so there was no reason to think that it would be any different with King Tut. (Makes for a great story, though.)

"It is true that some people involved with the excavation (however peripherally) died shortly after the Tut's tomb was opened. The most famous victim of the curse was probably Lord Carnavon, who financed the work; he died the following year in Cairo. (Of course, his death is less mysterious when we learn that he suffered severe health problems before he even arrived in Egypt.)..."

The relatively short article points out that the timing of the 'mysterious' deaths doesn't bode well for the 'curse' hypothesis. People who should have been targeted lived an average of over 23 years after disturbing Tut's tomb.

Oh, well, ancient curses are a whole lot more exciting than actuarial tables for most of us: so my guess is that the Curse of Tut will live on as an urban legend for generations to come.

Haiti - 5 Superdomes of Rubble - Charities

"Rubble from Haiti quake could fill 5 Superdomes"
The Associated Press, via The Miami Herald (January 30, 2010)

"A U.S. official says the rubble remaining from destroyed buildings in Haiti's capital could easily fill to the top five football stadiums the size of New Orleans' Superdome...."

The "U.S. official" seems to be U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Col. Rick Kaiser. And he says that's using "conservative estimates."

Had Enough of the Haiti Disaster? So Have the Haitians

At least, I assume so. I suppose there may be some psychiatrically-challenged person in Haiti, who's sitting in a corner, giggling about all the death and destruction. Or, not.

The point of this post is to

1. Share an interesting factoid
2. Have an excuse to highlight a list of charitable organizations

Well, I've shared the factoid. Now, to highlight the list. You probably saw this at the top of the blog:

A list of charities you've probably heard about already, with links and some contact information:

• "Haiti: About the Earthquake, Relief, and Related Topics"

Also a list of posts in this, and two other blogs, about Haiti.

I know: you've heard it all before. But folks in Haiti will be working their way out of the mess left by the January 12 quake for a long time. They can use help.

Dead Fish Thinks! - or - fMRI Analytic Methods Need Evaluation

"Scanning Dead Salmon in fMRI Machine Highlights Risk of Red Herrings"
Wired Science, Wired (September 18, 2009)

""Neuroscientist Craig Bennett purchased a whole Atlantic salmon, took it to a lab at Dartmouth, and put it into an fMRI machine used to study the brain. The beautiful fish was to be the lab's test object as they worked out some new methods.

"So, as the fish sat in the scanner, they showed it 'a series of photographs depicting human individuals in social situations.' To maintain the rigor of the protocol (and perhaps because it was hilarious), the salmon, just like a human test subject, 'was asked to determine what emotion the individual in the photo must have been experiencing.'

"The salmon, as Bennett's poster on the test dryly notes, 'was not alive at the time of scanning.'..."

The salmon's brain, if you take the fMRI scan's results at face value, was thinking about the emotional state expressed by human faces.

No, Bennett is not trying to add dead fish to the list of "intelligent and self-aware beings" oppressed by humans. (June 25, 2008)

"...'By complete, random chance, we found some voxels that were significant that just happened to be in the fish’s brain,' Bennett said. 'And if I were a ridiculous researcher, I'd say, "A dead salmon perceiving humans can tell their emotional state."'

"The result is completely nuts — but that's actually exactly the point. Bennett, who is now a post-doc at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and his adviser, George Wolford, wrote up the work as a warning about the dangers of false positives in fMRI data. They wanted to call attention to ways the field could improve its statistical methods...." [emphasis mine]

The article explains what a "voxel" is. It also says that "Bennett's paper has been turned down by several publications." Can't say that I blame them: Who'd want to admit that accepted fMRI interpretation methods can show cognitive activity in a dead fish?

Bennett's poster might get the word out, though.

I rather hope that the imaging industry catches on, and uses the right statistical tools to analyze fMRI scans. It's a useful technology - but if you're not careful, it'll show that a dead fish is thinking about you.

Related posts:

• "Good News, Neural Devices Connect Brain, Computers: Bad News, Same Thing"
  (July 11, 2009)
• "Peta Protests on World of Warcraft - I am Not Making This Up"
  (April 17, 2009)
• "Depression, Brain Structure, and Heredity - More Data to Crunch"
  (April 14, 2009)
• " 'Stop the Oppression of Intelligent and Self-Aware Beings' - Who Could be Against That?!"
  (June 25, 2008)
• "Simian Suffrage Suffers: Judge Refuses Right to Sue"
  (January 18, 2008)
• "Language, Verbs, and How Our Brains Work"
  (October 17, 2007)

Happy Old Republican Men: Also Fish and Evolution

"Happiness Is ... Being Old, Male and Republican"
LiveScience.com (May 15, 2009)

"Americans grow happier as they age, surveys find. And a new Pew Research Center survey shows the tendency is holding up as the economy tanks.

"Happiness is a complex thing. Past studies have found that happiness is partly inherited, that Republicans are happier than Democrats, and that old men tend to be happier than old women.

"And even before the economy got nasty, seniors were found to be generally happier than Baby Boomers. Some of that owes to the American Dream being lived by past generations, while Boomers work two jobs and watch the dream wither...."

All in all, an interesting article. I'm 57, so I'm in the group "... age 50-64 who've 'seen their nest eggs shrink the most and their anxieties about retirement swell the most,'...."

I'm a trend-setter of sorts: I got laid off in the spring of 2006. Then, I was in and out of a hospital four times to get hips replaced and hands fixed. Aside from that, though, things have been pretty good.

LiveScience.com has a related article, "Key to Happiness: Location, Location, Location" (May 17, 2009), that takes a look at seaside property, happiness, fish, and evolution.

Minnesota Winters: Bitter Cold, Springlike Warmth, and Everything in Between

"Record Report"
Hennepin [Minnesota], Wunderground.com (January 31, 2009)

"Statement as of 7:40 PM CST on January 31, 2009

"... Record high temperature tied today at Minneapolis...

"The high temperature at Minneapolis international Airport reached a
balmy 46 degrees on this last day in January. This was enough
to tie the previous record set on the 31st of January 1995."

It was a warm day, here in central Minnesota. We've still got our snow, though. Down the road, in Glenwoood, the high was 42°F and the low 17°F: 25°F and 3°F are what's average.

Being near the center of the North American continent, our climate isn't boring. Today's record high over in Glenwood was 40°F, back in 1954: and the record low was -37°F, in 1951. (Wunderground.com)

The Web, Statistics, More Statistics, and Still More Statistics

"Sink or Swim? The Top Moving Sites Of 2007"
Compete (January 17, 2008)

"At Compete we frequently write about monthly traffic volume and site popularity, but the focus is usually on the ten or twenty sites that enjoy monthly visitors in the tens (or even hundreds) of millions. While it’s important to investigate these sites, massively popular domains like Google or Yahoo typically don’t change much in terms of domain-level traffic or rank. Right behind these behemoths, however, a large number of websites battle for the finite resource of consumer attention and the shifting dynamics of this group will ultimately define the future of the web.

"With 2008 now more than two weeks old, it’s a great time to look back at last year and see how the web has changed...."

There's a list of top 20 and bottom 20 growing/shrinking websites from the top 1,000 in terms of traffic. Then, there's some analysis, and finally an offer to get more data - for a price.

Firefox Download Day Approaches: Light Look at Statistics

"Firefox Download Day and a look at FF Loving Countries"
PLUGGED.IN (June 16, 2008)

"FireFox 3 will be released tomorrow (i.e June 17th) and the FF team is gearing up for making an entry in “Guinness Book of World Records” for the most downloaded software in 24 hours.

"As we approach the D-day (or F-day?), lets look at numbers pledged from different countries...."

With maps. There's an interesting question about geekiness on the page.

Lightning Strikes Wisconsin Teen, Mom Wins Lottery: Now, That's a Lucky Family!

"Girl, 16, Survives Lightning Strike, Family Wins Lottery the Next Day"
FOXNews (June 16, 2008)

"BLANCHARD, Mich. — No one quite understands the term "striking it lucky" better than 16-year-old BreAnna Helsel. The Michigan teen survived being struck by lightning and went on to win $20 in the lottery the next day...."

Getting struck by lightning is "lucky," in a way: The odds are about 3,000 to 1 that someone will get struck by lightning once in an eighty-year lifetime. Then there's Roy Sullivan. He got hit seven times, over a span of 35 years.

It's getting struck by lightning, and walking away with a few fingertips darker than the others, ajavascript:void(0)
Publish Postnd some muscle damage that's expected to heal.

Dutch Statisticians: Friday the 13th is - Lucky?!

" Dutch study shows Friday 13th not more unlucky"
Yahoo! News (June 12, 2008)

"AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Unlucky for some? Dutch statisticians have established that Friday 13th, a date regarded in many countries as inauspicious, is actually safer than an average Friday...."

That's it! No more Friday the 13th posts for at least a month.

That Dutch study was interesting, though.

Free Stats, Sort of: This Looks Interesting

"urlmetrix
"check of url popularity"

For Google, Alexa, Compete, Quantcast, Technorati. and others.

Looks like a pretty good one-stop check on a URLs rankings. The numbers I saw for mine were what I expected.

Bread Kills! Who Knew?

"Bread Kills!"

Funny!

From
"More than 98 percent of convicted felons are bread users."
and
"Fully HALF of all children who grow up in bread-consuming households score below average on standardized tests."
to
"Bread is baked at temperatures as high as 400 degrees Fahrenheit! That kind of heat can kill an adult in less than one minute."
and
"Most bread eaters are utterly unable to distinguish between significant scientific fact and meaningless statistical babbling."

- although I think the last one may be debatable.

Good for a laugh. And, might be a good anodyne for the next scare story you hear on the news. You know, the sort of thing where we're warned that nylon socks cause memory loss, or dental floss is a decapitation hazard.

Social Network, Blog, and Web Brand Statistics

"Top 10 Social Networks, Blogs & Web Brand Rankings for Dec. 2007"

Nielson Ratings, reported by "Marketing Charts," with comments.

I noticed that blogging is still a growing phenomenon.

Top 50 Website List, Probably

"Top-50 Websites - Ranked by Unique Visitors; Digg.com, Facebook, Flickr sky rocketing"

Written October 30, 2007.

Interesting bit of statistics. It would be more impressive if the author let us know where he got the information. (Maybe he did: but I looked and didn't find it.)