Mexico's Crystal Cave and Astrobiologist Boston

"Pictures: Return to the Crystal Caves"
Crystal Underworld, National Geographic (October 8, 2010)

"Encased in ice-cooled orange suits, scientists explore the Cave of Crystals, discovered a thousand feet (304 meters) below Naica (map), Mexico, in 2000...."


(Oscar Necoechea, Speleoresearch & Films/NGT, via National Geographic, used w/o permission)
Cave of Crystals under Naica, Mexico.

The article this photo page identifies those improbable-looking things as gypsum crystals. Among the largest in the world. Largest known, anyway.

Despite looking like ice crystals, the cave is hot - folks exploring it need refrigerated suits: ice packs and respirators keep the spelunkers and the air they breathe (comparatively) cool.

The photo looked a little familiar - the Lemming checked, and sure enough, there's a post in this blog with another picture of the same cave. (August 2, 2008)

The National Geographic article that's linked to the one with eleven photos of the Crystal Caves (including a full-size version of the one in this post) says that there's life down there:

"...Though the calling card of the horseshoe-shaped Cave of Crystals may be its massive mineral formations, some of its biggest surprises are literally microscopic.

"In 2008 a team of scientists, including New Mexico Tech's [astrobiologist and cave scientist Penelope ] Boston, investigated the cave and found microbial life living in tiny air pockets in the crystals.

"In December 2009 Boston returned to the cave with another team. From pools of water that hadn't been present during her first trip, the scientists collected bacteria as well as viruses that prey on the bacteria—something that was suspected but had not been confirmed on the first expedition...."
(National Geographic)

"Astrobiologist?!" Isn't that science-fiction stuff: "Beam me up Scotty" and all that? Not so much. And that's another topic.

Somewhat-related posts:

• "Camuy, Caves, and Karst"
  (October 21, 2010)
• "Another Martian Cave: Discovered by Seventh Graders"
  (June 22, 2010)
• "Cave Painting to Graffiti: Covered in One Blog Post"
  (April 22, 2009)
• "Beautiful, Strange, Caves Around the World"
  (August 2, 2008)
• "Big Blue Hole in Belize: Or, the Great Blue Hole"
  (March 25, 2009)

Rio Grand Valley: America's Almost-as-Grand Canyon

(From Andreas F. Borchert, via Wikimedia Commons, used without permission)

That's the Rio Grande Valley: Not quite as big as the Grand Canyon, nowhere near as well known, and spectacular in its own right.

Google has assembled a decent timeline for the Rio Grande Valley's history, from 1540 to 2007.

There's quite a bit of information about the Rio Grande River at "RIO GRANDE." (The Handbook of Texas Online)

To read some resources, the Rio Grande is a Texas river. For most of its length, it's the boundary between Texas and Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León (for nine miles), and Tamaulipas, but it starts in Colorado and runs through New Mexico on its way to the Gulf of Mexico.

Going past Albuquerque, New Mexico.

I found some spectacular photos at "Panoramic Pictures Sandia Mountains Rio Grande Albuquerque New Mexico." (unit16.net)

Hot Sand in Cancun: Beach Sand Stolen?

"Mexico shuts Cancun beach, alleges sand was stolen"
The Associated Press (July 30, 2009)

"Surprised tourists found their little piece of Cancun beach paradise ringed by crime-scene tape and gun-toting sailors on Thursday.

"Environmental enforcement officers backed by Mexican navy personnel closed off hundreds of feet (dozens of meters) of powder-white coastline in front of a hotel accused of illegally accumulating sand on its beach.

"Mexico spent $19 million to replace Cancun beaches washed away by Hurricane Wilma in 2005. But much of the sand pumped from the sea floor has since washed away, leading some property owners to build breakwaters in a bid to retain sand. The practice often merely shifts sand loss to beaches below the breakwaters.

" 'Today we made the decision to close this stretch of ill-gotten, illegally accumulated sand,' said Patricio Patron, Mexico's attorney general for environmental protection. 'This hotel was telling its tourists: "Come here, I have sand ... the other hotels don't, because I stole it." '..."

I've heard of beaches with hot sand: but not 'hot' this way.

The AP article gives a pretty good look at the reaction of tourists, but doesn't - in my opinion - explain why, by implication, a hotel building a breakwater to retain sand on its beach is 'stealing' sand. Maybe it's the sort of principle that applied in classrooms, where if a student brought something special in his or her lunch it was a case of "I hope you have enough for everybody."

'Artificial' beaches are pretty common a little north of here, in Minnesota's lake country. We've got sand-bottom lakes, where you can get a sandy beach by peeling back the sod. But, we've also got mud-bottom lakes where resort owners haul sand in - and can get a bit peeved if people carry it off the property.

So, there may very well be a legitimate complaint, down in Cancun. I just wish The Associated Press had given enough detail for us to understand it a bit more adequately.

Oh, well: On the 'up' side, there's a map and two photos.

Swine Flu / Influenza 2009 H1N1 - Edging off the Front Page, but Not a Dead Issue

"Swine flu kills 2nd person in U.S."
Reuters (May 5, 2009)

"A Texas woman with the new H1N1 swine flu died earlier this week, state health officials said on Tuesday, the second death outside of Mexico, where the epidemic appeared to be waning.

"The death of the woman, who was in her 30s and had health problems, followed that of a Mexican toddler visiting Texas. U.S. health officials have predicted that the virus would spread and inevitably kill some people, just as seasonal flu does.

"The World Health Organisation was monitoring the spread of the virus and said 21 countries have officially reported 1,490 cases...."

'It could be worse,' as we say in Minnesota. America has over 400 cases of swine flu / influenza A(H1N1) now - and this is the second death in this country. The toddler who was brought to a Texas hospital for treatment before dying was not a resident of the United States, so America has a roughly 1 in 400 death rate from this flu.

That's much less serious than the 1 in about 14 rate, early on in influenza A(H1N1)'s progress. The death rate in Mexico now is 29 deaths out of 822 cases, or a bit over 1 in 28 cases: half as bad as when this began, but still bad.

So far, there are 1,490 confirmed cases around the world: with no reported deaths outside Mexico or the United States. (More at "Influenza A(H1N1) - update 16" and "Influenza A(H1N1) - update 15" WHO (May 5, 2009).)

Any sort of influenza is at best unpleasant - and potentially lethal. But, there are common-sense ways to increase your chances of staying healthy. The CDC has a pretty good list on its "H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu)" page, where they post updates. Look for the "What You Can Do to Stay Healthy" heading.

I'm following their advice: I'm not in a panic over swine flu, but I'm not stupid, either.

Cytokine Storm Review

I've been over this before, but it bears repeating. This year's influenza A(H1N1), or swine flu (really a sort of hybrid avian/swine/human flu) is new. Aside from the 1,400 or so people who caught it and live, we don't have an immunity to it.

That makes something called a cytokine storm, a cool name for hypercytokinemia, possible in people who get infected. It seems to boil down to the immune system over-reacting, once it 'notices' that there's an infection. Think of a city's police force using tactical nukes to handle a riot. I wrote a little more about it, with links, on May 2, 2009.

What's interesting about the cytokine storm situation is that it hits healthy people with good, working, immune systems harder than the young, the elderly, and people with compromised immune systems.

Only a Few People Died, in Only Two Countries: Problem Over, Right?

I hope so, but WHO and national outfits like CDC would be irresponsible if they acted on that assumption.

"Swine flu," or influenza A(H1N1), is edging out of the top headlines. Which is good sense, I think. I doubt that there are many people now, who

1. Pay attention to the news and
2. Don't know about the new and improved 2009 "swine flu"

And, there's not much to report apart from the steady spread of the disease across the globe.

Meanwhile, Here in Central Minnesota - - -

Around here, Catholic churches have made the sign of peace a 'no contact' part of Mass, per the bishop's directions: an 'abundance of caution' thing, I think. And, Catholics have been told that if you're sick: stay home. The Sunday obligation is off if you've got health issues. Nothing new there, actually.

It's 'no visitors, period' at the local nursing home.

The Alexandria, Minnesota, Technical College hosted a community picnic & Cinco de Mayo celebration today: and they picked a great day for it. It's not so festive down in Mexico, though, I read.

In the news:

• " Texas officials report second U.S. swine flu death "
  CNN (May 5, 2009)
• "Bay Area schools reconsider swine flu closures"
  SFGATE / San Franciso Chronicle (May 5, 2009)
• "Mexico Returning to Normal After Flu Shutdown"
  FOXNews (May 5, 2009)
• " Swine flu casts a cloud over Cinco de Mayo"
  CNN (May 5, 2009)
• " Mexican citizens to return from China"
  CNN (May 5, 2009)
• "1 swine flu case leads to 340 quarantines in Hong Kong"
  CNN (May 4, 2009)

List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:

• "Swine Flu 2009"
  • "Swine flu 2009 posts"
  • "Background and more information"
    Including links to
    • "1918 Influenza Timeline"
    • "The Influenza Pandemic of 1918"
  • "WHO Alert Phases"
  • " 'Public Health Emergency' - What's That Mean? "

Swine Flu / Influenza A(H1N1) - Mexico Re-opening, WHO Cautious - I Doubt This is Over

Swine flu, influenza A(H1N1), is still showing up in more people in more places around the world - but not killing people. And, 'swine flu' is apparently waning in Mexico. As far as it goes, that's good news.

Kudos to the Mexican government, for having the good sense to shut down Mexico city - shops, soccer fans, Masses, and all - until they

1. Had some idea of what they were dealing with and
2. Could see that the disease had (apparently) peaked and was on the wane

People will be criticizing Calderon's government for generations for doing too much, doing to little, doing it to early, too late - or not doing something that will be "obvious" thirty years from now. That's the way things go.

I think that, ideally, the Mexican government would have noticed the first few cases a little earlier. That didn't happen - and once the existence of the disease was known, the Mexico's government seems to have skipped the step of denying that there's a problem, and jumped straight to setting up barriers to influenza A(H1N1)'s spread.

By that time, it was already in several other countries: but that's almost inevitable in a world with fast transportation and people who can afford to use it.

Meanwhile, it looks like Mexico City and the rest of Mexico are re-opening - and dealing with a massive international public relations problem. People in most countries seem to be aware that influenza A(H1N1) started (apparently) in Mexico - and are extraordinarily cautious about anybody with a Mexican passport. (Reuters, Independent Online)

Flue Alert Level Lowered: in Mexico

Mexico's lowered its national alert level. The Mexican epidemic is waning where it began: and the universities, cafes, museums and libraries that were closed will be opened again this week. (AP)

That's good news.

And, although influenza A(H1N1) is spreading around the world, it doesn't seem to be as lethal as the first cases in Mexico were.

That's more good news.

But, swine flu / influenza A(H1N1) is an influenza virus. They mutate readily and quickly: That's how we got influenza A(H1N1) in the first place.

Which is why the World Health Organization (WHO) is keeping the global alert level ("phase," actually) at 5: "Evidence of significant human-to-human transmission"

The 1918 Spanish Influenza Wasn't Much of a Problem - At First

" WHO alert over second attack"
Gulf Daily News (May 4, 2009) ("The Voice of Bahrain")

"MEXICO CITY: The World Health Organisation (WHO) chief warned yesterday that swine flu could return with a vengeance despite Mexico's President Felipe Calderon insisting his country has contained the epidemic. WHO chief Margaret Chan said that a second wave of the virus 'would be the biggest of all outbreaks the world has faced in the 21st century', confirming the total number of cases at 1,003 from 20 countries.

"Twenty-five people have died from swine flu, according to the WHO, all but one of them in Mexico. Twenty-one countries have confirmed cases of the virus which has affected more than 900 people.

"Calderon said Mexico had managed 'to contain the epidemic' and was now 'in a position to overcome' the influenza A (H1N1) virus.

"But Chan said the end of the flu season in the northern hemisphere meant that while any initial outbreak could be milder, a second wave could be more lethal...."

My oldest daughter told me that a number of students at the post-secondary school she's attending see the swine flu / influenza A(H1N1) as a joke. I think I can understand that, to some extent: during the last two decades, there hasn't been a disease that spread and disrupted life - not here, near the center of North America, at least. The last three big ones were during the 20th century:

• "Spanish flu"
  • 1918-1920
  • An H1N1 virus
• "Asian flu"
  • 1957-1958
  • An H2N2 virus
• "Hong Kong flu"
  • 1968-1969
  • An H3N2 virus
  (WHO)

I remember the last two, particularly the "Hong Kong flu," and know something about the 1918 pandemic.

That Gulf Daily News article is one of the relatively few I found that seem related to a Spanish-language article posted by a Madrid news outlet today: " 'Los virus de la gripe son tramposos, no hay que confiarse' ." (EL PAÍS (May 4, 2009) )

The headline translates, more or less, as "Influenza viruses are cheaters, we should not rely" - And yes, I know: that's not the best translation. I know a little Spanish - but for this I relied on Google Language Tools.

Part of the article is a Q & A (P. and R. in Spanish). One of the answers given by WHO's director-general, Dr. Margaret Chan, included this (translated):

"...If we take the pandemic of 1918 started as a very mild illness, and had a calm period in which it appeared had been withdrawn. But again, causing millions of deaths and disease. And this is something I want to emphasize: the influenza virus is very unpredictable, very tricky. We should not trust. In recent years we have made a lot of preparation. We are miles away from where we were five years ago, but we also need a great way to go." (EL PAÍS) ¹

That's 'way too long to be a good sound bite, and doesn't lend itself to catchy headlines - but I think that Dr. Chan has a good point. The odds are that this swine flu, influenza A(H1N1), isn't done with us quite yet.

The flu season is starting in the southern hemisphere, where a few cases have shown up. And it's not at all unimaginable that a few people in the northern hemisphere may catch influenza A(H1N1) - even if it's not the right season for doing it.

Dr. Chan is right: the 1918-1920 pandemic had a lull before it killed over 600,000 Americans - and maybe 40,000,000 people around the world.

This year's human/avian/swine flu variant, influenza A(H1N1), may turn out to be relatively innocuous. An American official has declared that it's more dangerous than ordinary influenza. That may continue to be true, and influenza A(H1N1) may not go on to infect large numbers of people.

That would be nice.

But I've noticed that viruses are notoriously inconsiderate of official pronouncements. I think that WHO's cautious 'keep a close eye on this' approach is prudent - and may save a great many lives.

In the news:

• "Flu-hit Mexico to resume business"
  Reuters (May 4, 2009)
• "When a pandemic isn't a pandemic"
  CNN (May 4, 2009)
• " WHO alert over second attack"
  Gulf Daily News (May 4, 2009) ("The Voice of Bahrain")
• "Mexico says flu ebbing, lowers alert level"
  The Associated Press (May 5, 2009)
• "China defends quarantine"
  Independent Online (May 4, 2009)
• "Swine flu confirmed in Orange, Riverside counties"
  Los Angeles Times (May 4, 2009)
• "Swine flu no worse than regular flu, Napolitano says"
  CNN (May 4, 2009)
• "Confirmed cases of H1N1 virus approach 1,000"
  CNN (May 4, 2009)
• "Influenza A(H1N1) - update 14"
  World Health Organization (WHO) (May 4, 2009)
• "Influenza A(H1N1) - update 13"
  World Health Organization (WHO) (May 4, 2009)
• " 'Los virus de la gripe son tramposos, no hay que confiarse' "
  ("Influenza viruses are cheaters, we should not rely" - more or less)
  EL PAÍS (May 4, 2009)

Background:

• "WHO ad hoc scientific teleconference on the current influenza A(H1N1) situation"
  World Health Organization (WHO) (April 29, 2009) (pdf)

List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:

• "Swine Flu 2009"
  • "Swine flu 2009 posts"
  • "Background and more information"
    Including links to
    • "1918 Influenza Timeline"
    • "The Influenza Pandemic of 1918"
  • "WHO Alert Phases"
  • " 'Public Health Emergency' - What's That Mean? "

---

¹ Quote from " 'Los virus de la gripe son tramposos, no hay que confiarse' " ("Influenza viruses are cheaters, we should not rely" - more or less) (EL PAÍS (May 4, 2009))

Original excerpt, one question and response:

"P. ¿Ni aventurarse a predecirlo?

"R. Ahora que ya estamos viendo un número de casos en México y en Estados Unidos, estamos enfrentándonos a muchos leves, algunos graves e incluso a unas cuantas muertes. Estamos en una fase muy temprana de esta nueva enfermedad, y por eso lo que digo es que nuestra obligación es mantener la atención, no perderle ojo y no dejar que se nos escape nada. Si tomamos la pandemia de 1918, empezó también como una enfermedad muy leve, y tuvo un periodo de calma en el que parecía que se había retirado. Pero volvió y causó millones de muertos y enfermos. Y esto es algo que quiero destacar: los virus de la gripe son muy impredecibles, muy tramposos. No debemos confiarnos. En los últimos años hemos hecho mucha preparación. Estamos a kilómetros a distancia de los que estábamos hace cinco años, pero también nos falta un gran trecho por recorrer."

Translation, using Google Language Tools:

"P. Not daring to predict it?

"R. Now that we are seeing a number of cases in Mexico and United States are facing many minor, some serious and even a few deaths. We are at a very early stage of this new disease, which is why I am saying is that our obligation is to keep the attention, not losing an eye and not let anything slip away. If we take the pandemic of 1918 started as a very mild illness, and had a calm period in which it appeared had been withdrawn. But again, causing millions of deaths and disease. And this is something I want to emphasize: the influenza virus is very unpredictable, very tricky. We should not trust. In recent years we have made a lot of preparation. We are miles away from where we were five years ago, but we also need a great way to go."

Swine Flu / Influenza 2009 H1N1 - Reason for Concern, Not Worry

Influenza 2009 H1N1 / swine flu is literally front-page news for the World Health Organization (WHO).

As of 06:00 UTC / GMT, 11 countries have officially-confirmed cases of influenza 2009 H1N1.

Country	# of known cases
Austria	1
Canada	34
Germany	3
Israel	2
Mexico	156
Netherlands	1
New Zealand	3
Spain	13
Switzerland	1
United Kingdom	8
United States	109

(source: WHO)

Also from WHO: "...There is also no risk of infection from this virus from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products. Individuals are advised to wash hands thoroughly with soap and water on a regular basis and should seek medical attention if they develop any symptoms of influenza-like illness...."

I'm glad WHO is trying to make that clear. I'm concerned that more countries will follow Egypt's lead, killing pigs with no perceivable reason.

List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:

• "Swine Flu 2009"
  • "Swine flu 2009 posts"
  • "Background and more information"
  • "WHO Alert Phases"
  • " 'Public Health Emergency' - What's That Mean? "

In the news:

• " Confirmed number of flu cases jumps to 331"
  CNN (May 1, 2009)

Swine Flu : Good News, Bad News from WHO, About Influenza 2009 H1N1

"Confirmed swine flu cases leap"
CNN (April 30, 2009)

"Confirmed cases of swine flu worldwide increased to 257 on Thursday, up significantly from the previous day's total of 147, the World Health Organization reported.

"In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it has confirmed 109 cases of swine flu, or 2009 H1N1, in 11 states, an increase of 18 from its previous total.

"The death toll climbed again Thursday, with Mexican officials announcing that the number of confirmed deaths from the virus in that country had increased to 12. There has been one death in the United States.

"More than 150 deaths in Mexico are suspected to have been caused by swine flu and are being investigated, officials there said. ..."

Mexico: Catching up on Backlog of Test Samples

What seems to be happening in Mexico is not so much new cases, as laboratories working through a backlog of samples.

"... The latest tally was announced one day after WHO raised the pandemic threat level to 5 on a six-step scale. WHO did not change the threat level Thursday.

Good News: No Reason to Move Toward Phase 6

" 'There is nothing epidemiologically that points to us today that we should be moving toward Phase 6,' [assistant director-general of WHO, Dr. Keiji] Fukuda said.

" 'It really is all of humanity that is under threat during a pandemic," said Dr. Margaret Chan, the WHO's director-general. 'We do not have all the answers right now, but we will get them.'..."

Influenza 2009 H1N1: Good News, Bad News

Today's situation is a little like the old good news/bad news jokes. The bad news is pretty obvious: a new, potentially lethal, disease is loose and has already spread around the world. There is no vaccine for it - partly because it's a new mix of avian, human, and swine influenza.

More Good News: Relatively Few Deaths From Swine Flu / Influenza H1N1

The good news is that there have been remarkably few (my opinion) deaths from influenza 2009 H1N1. Over 250 confirmed cases, and probably upwards of 100 deaths is not at all good: but it's still a very small percentage of the population.

And, now that the disease is identified, there's a very good chance that it will be contained before many more people are killed.

Bad News: Governments Acting Badly

On the other hand, some governments have already demonstrated a remarkable lack of good judgment. Egypt, with no cases of swine flu reported in the country, started slaughtering pigs. Which led to Egyptian pig farmers rioting. (CBS News) Ecuador, Cuba and Argentina have banned travel to or from Mexico (CNN), and France wants all Europeans to shun Mexico: never mind what WHO says (CBS News).

Swine Flu Vaccine: The Horror! The Horror! - Rehashing 1976

CBS News made quite a point of how awful it was that swine flu vaccine was used in 1976. And, according to CBS News: "The vaccination program turned out to be a deadly mistake." About 1 out of every 80,000¹ people who got the vaccine developed Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). That's a serious neuromuscular disorder. That's about 6 times the number of people who would get GBS anyway.

CBS goes on to say that the vaccination program was useless because: "No swine flu epidemic ever erupted. The outbreak was limited to Fort Dix, and about 500 Americans likely died as a result of the vaccine...."

500 people died. That's bad. On the other hand, if the Ford administration had followed CBS-like wisdom and not vaccinated Americans, we might have had 40,000,000 dead people to deal with - like the 'Spanish influenza' of 1918. We'll never know, of course, whether or not the vaccination stopped a replay of 1918.

That's one of the great things about Monday-morning quarterbacking. The game's over, and the M-m quarterback is free to speculate on what would have happened if he had been in charge.

Times Change, People Don't

We've already seen dead pigs in Egypt, the start of a boycott of Mexico, and a rehashing of an incident from the Ford administration.

My guess is that more silliness will be displayed before this is over.

List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:

• "Swine Flu 2009"
  • "Swine flu 2009 posts"
  • "Background and more information"
  • "WHO Alert Phases"
  • " 'Public Health Emergency' - What's That Mean? "

Swine Flu / 2009 H1N1 flu, Politics, and Common Sense: Why Closing the Border Doesn't Make Sense

I'm not all that interested in politics, beyond what's required of a conscientious American citizen: so I don't know whether the politicos who have been trying to close the U.S. - Mexican border are of the 'keep them furriners out' variety, or are taking another tack.

It doesn't matter in a way: with swine flu approaching pandemic status, some of America's leaders want to close the border. It feels right: but doesn't make all that much sense.

"Mexico Shuts Government; Pandemic Imminent"
FOX News (April 30, 2009)

"Mexico's president told citizens on Wednesday to stay home for a five-day partial shutdown of the economy, after the World Health Organization raised its alert level and said a swine flu pandemic was imminent...."

"...'There is no safer place than your own home to avoid being infected with the flu virus,' [Mexican President] Calderon said.

Mexico is taking the drastic step after another 17 deaths were potentially linked to swine flu, bringing the total to as many as 176...."

Mexico's government is now taking very serious steps to contain the disease in Mexico. I've read that some people there think there should have been something else done sooner - but that's par for the course in crisis situations. I think it's reasonable to point out that something's being done now.

Meanwhile, closing the border now won't stop the spread of swine flu / influenza A (H1N1). It's spread to America and other Pacific Rim counties, the Middle East: Israel, specifically, and probably beyond.

Closing the Border is Pointless

That's not the 'all hope is lost' statement it may seem. I think there's a very good chance that there won't be as many deaths in this year's influenza A (H1N1) situation as in previous pandemics. We've learned a lot.

Remembering the Black Death

I think that Western cultures learned something from the Black Death: Contagious disease can be a serious problem. This is just speculation, but I think it's possible that the plague that killed about a third of Europe, back in the 14th century, made it easier for European cultures, and those derived from Europe, to recognize rapidly-spreading diseases as serious threats. And, created an enhanced willingness to deal with disease.

I'm not ignoring effects that the plague had on other cultures. I simply don't know enough about cultures in the east end of Eurasia, to have an opinion about how the plague affected them.

Closing the Border: Feels So Good, Doesn't Make Sense

The CDC now is advising no non-essential travel to Mexico (CDC, via CNN, more at "Travel Health Warning / Travel Warning: Swine Influenza and Severe Cases of Respiratory Illness in Mexico — Avoid Nonessential Travel to Mexico" (CDC (April 30, 2009) ) - but I think that's a matter of protecting individuals. Influenza 2009 N1H1 is a horse that's definitely out of the barn - closing the door is pointless.

"At a prime-time news conference, Obama said health officials weren't recommending closing the border with Mexico.

" That, he said, 'would be akin to closing the barn door after the horses are out, because we already have cases here in the United States.'

"In an interview with Dr. Manny Alvarez on Wednesday, managing editor of health at FOXNews.com, Dr. Dalilah Restrpo, an infectious disease specialist at St. Luke's-Roosevelt in New York City drove home the same point.

" 'It's always an tempting strategy to close the door, back off and not let anybody else in, but it doesn't work,' she told Alvarez.

" 'It doesn't work because this type of disease is something where the period of infectiousness is behind you,' she continued. 'By the time the symptoms arrive — it's already too late. At this point, closing the border would make no sense. There are cases all over the world and the virus is already here.'..." (FOX News)

The bottom line seems to be that influenza 2009 H1N1 has spread around the globe, so closing the Mexican-American border would be pointless as far as containing the disease is concerned. On the other hand, it's not exactly smart to travel into an infected area, unless you've got a really good reason. After that, I'd think one would want to think long and hard about going back home - taking the risk of bringing the disease with you.

List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:

• "Swine Flu 2009"
  • "Swine flu 2009 posts"
  • "Background and more information"
  • "WHO Alert Phases"
  • " 'Public Health Emergency' - What's That Mean? "

Swine Flu 2009: First Time WHO Raised Disease Alert Level; and a News Video

The 2009 swine flu outbreak in spreading from human to human: which prompted public health people in Indiana to recommend no shaking hands in the state.

A video from WISH TV had quite a bit of evidence of common sense in the state: including a plea to employers to be smart, and make it possible for employees to stay home, instead of coming to work and infecting the entire staff.

"One confirmed case of swine flu in Ind."

wish, YouTube (April 28, 2009)
video 5:14

And two men, age 33 and 45, died in the Los Angeles area. It's possible that swine flu was involved, but the tests for that particular virus aren't back yet.

[UPDATE April 28, 2009: "...Los Angeles County public health officer Dr. Jonathan Fielding said Tuesday during a news briefing that news reports of two possible deaths there were initially 'misreported.'

"The Los Angeles County coroner's office ruled out swine flu as the cause of one those deaths. Coroner's Assistant Chief Ed Winter said Tuesday that swine flu was not found in a La Mirada man. Winter says lab testing is pending in the case of a 33-year-old Long Beach man but swine flu is now not suspected...." (FOX News)

What's odd about this disease is that it seems to hit people with healthy immune systems particularly hard.

I still think there's a chance this can be stopped before it turns into a pandemic.

• "In US, there's anxiety over swine flu but no panic"
  Reuters (April 28, 2009)
• "ATLANTA, April 28 (Reuters) - Americans are expressing anxiety about swine flu but there are few signs of panic, although sales of flu medication and items like protective face masks are up in some places where cases have been confirmed...."
• "Two L.A. County deaths possibly related to swine flu, coroner says [Updated]"
  Los Angeles Times (April 28, 2009)
• "The Los Angeles County coroner's office is investigating two recent deaths that officials say could be related to the recent global swine flu outbreak. However, no tests have come back positive for the swine flu, and medical examiners have not officially determined what caused the deaths.
• "[Updated at 9:30 a.m.: Coroner's spokesman Craig Harvey said his office would collect specimens from the deceased and send them to the county public health department, which would determine whether either person died from the swine flu. If so, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would be notified, Harvey said.]..."
• "World keeps wary eye on swine flu"
  Los Angeles Times (April 28, 2009)
• "As more details emerged Monday on the origins of the swine flu outbreak, the World Health Organization raised its infectious disease alert level for the first time ever, and U.S. authorities warned against unnecessary travel to Mexico.
• "In that country, authorities ordered all schools closed nationwide, and officials disclosed that the outbreak began much earlier than thought, near a pig farm in the Veracruz municipality of Perote.
• "And, it was revealed, the first confirmed fatality worked as a door-to-door census-taker in one of Mexico's poorest states...."
• " 'Hundreds' in NYC sick at school hit by swine flu"
  The Associated Press
• "NEW YORK (AP) — A New York City official says "many hundreds" of students are sick at school hit by a swine flu outbreak.
• "Health Commissioner Thomas Frieden said Tuesday that the cases are not confirmed as swine flu. But the students have the same symptoms as the confirmed cases...."
• "World battles swine flu as death toll rises"
  CNN (April 28, 2009)
• "Governments and health officials around the world continued to take steps Tuesday against the outbreak of swine flu that has killed scores of people in Mexico and spread to the U.S., Europe and possibly Asia.
• "By early Tuesday, the swine flu outbreak in Mexico was suspected in 152 deaths and more than 1,600 illnesses, its health minister told reporters...."
• "...The symptoms are similar to common flu. They include fever, lethargy, lack of appetite, coughing, runny nose, sore throat, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea...."
• "...'When you think about the flu, the seasonal flu, the flu that we're accustomed to, it typically tends to have the worse ramifications in people that don't have developed immune systems -- the elderly and the very young. They can't fight it off,' said Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN's chief medical correspondent.
• " 'What's counterintuitive with this particular virus, it's in the people who have robust immune systems. As their body starts to respond, to try and fight off that virus, they produce tons of inflammatory cells. Those inflammatory cells can sort of flood the lungs....' "

List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:

• "Swine Flu 2009"
  • "Swine flu 2009 posts"
  • "Background and more information"
  • "WHO Alert Phases"
  • " 'Public Health Emergency' - What's That Mean? "

Swine Flu 2009 on World Tour

"Swine flu's ground zero? Residents say nearby farm"
The Associated Press (April 28, 2009)

"LA GLORIA, Mexico (AP) — Residents in this community of 3,000 believe their town is ground zero for the swine flu epidemic, even if health officials aren't saying so.

"More than 450 residents say they're suffering from respiratory problems from contamination spread by pig waste at nearby breeding farms co-owned by a U.S. company. Officials with the company say they've found no sign of swine flu on its farms, and Mexican authorities haven't determined the outbreak's origin...."

The Associated Press says the farms are owned by Granjas Carroll de Mexico, 50 percent owned by Virginia-based Smithfield Foods, Inc. - which says that it "...found no clinical signs or symptoms of the presence of swine influenza in its swine herd or its employees working at its joint ventures anywhere in Mexico...." (AP) Which may be true.

Meanwhile, people are starting to say that swine flu is the fault of [something they don't like]:

• "Swine Flu and Factory Farming"
  Fresh Greens, U.S. News & (April 27, 2009)
• "U.S. Lawmakers Point Fingers on Flu Funding"
  The Wall Street Journal (April 27, 2009)

The objection to factory farms seems to be that they raise more pigs than farms did back in the good old days. True enough. There are also more people around now than back when kerosene lamps were cutting edge technology.

I'll admit to a bias: I live in an area where quite a few of us raise pigs and cattle. And, we live in the 21st century: so yes, we've got [gasp of horror] "factory farms." They smell about as bad as the old-fashioned ones.

A more realistic approach than complaining about pork production keeping up with population might be to discuss the need for better quality control. But that's another topic.

WHO Raises Alert Level to Phase 4

The World Health Organization raised the alert level to 4: "Evidence of increased human-to-human transmission." (WHO alert levels, with links, at "Swine Flu 2009) There are cases in Spain (one), Israel (two) and Scotland (two). On the other hand, the number of new cases in Mexico is dropping. (Deadly Swine Flu Spreads to Mideast, AsiaFOX News) People in New Zealand and South Korea have swine flu, too. (LAT)

There's a chance, I think, that this swine flu outbreak will be stopped before too many more people die. We've been through this sort of thing before.

"...Governments in Asia — with memories of previous flu outbreaks — were especially cautious. Singapore, Thailand, Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines dusted off thermal scanners used in the 2003 SARS crisis and were checking for signs of fever among passengers from North America. South Korea, India and Indonesia also announced screening...." (FOX News)

Meanwhile, I've read that there's a newly-diagnosed case in Indiana. As I wrote before, I think it's just a matter of time before there are swine flu cases in my area, central Minnesota.

News and views:

• "New swine flu cases reported around the globe"
  Los Angeles Times (April 28, 2009)
• :Swine flu's ground zero? Residents say nearby farm"
  The Associated Press (April 28, 2009)
• "Deadly Swine Flu Spreads to Mideast, Asia"
  FOX News (April 28, 2009)
• "Swine Flu and Factory Farming"
  Fresh Greens, U.S. News & (April 27, 2009)
• "U.S. Lawmakers Point Fingers on Flu Funding"
  The Wall Street Journal (April 27, 2009)

List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:

• "Swine Flu 2009"

Mexico's Swine Flu Epidemic: They're Taking it Seriously

"Mexico’s Calderon Declares Emergency Amid Swine Flu Outbreak"
Bloomberg (April 25, 2009)

"Mexican President Felipe Calderon declared an emergency in his country’s swine flu outbreak, giving him powers to order quarantines and suspend public events.

"Authorities have canceled school at all levels in Mexico City and the state of Mexico until further notice, and the government has shut most public and government activities in the area. The emergency decree, published today in the state gazette, gives the president authority to take more action.

" 'The federal government under my charge will not hesitate a moment to take all, all the measures necessary to respond with efficiency and opportunity to this respiratory epidemic,' Calderon said today during a speech to inaugurate a hospital in the southern state of Oaxaca...."

I can see why Mexico's government is taking this seriously. They saw the first case April 13. Then, the day after America's President Obabma met archeologist Felipe Solis at a Mexico City museum, Solis dropped dead. Whatever killed him acted like swine flu, according to the Reforma news paper (Bloomberg)

Soccer Games in an Empty Stadium? That IS Serious!

Two professional soccer games scheduled for tomorrow will go on as planned - but there won't be any fans in the stadium. (Bloomberg, CNN) I've gotten the impression that Mexican soccer fans are enthusiastic about their games - so a government ban of live spectators is something I don't think would be done for trivial reasons.

List of posts relating to swine flu:

• "Swine Flu 2009"

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Update (April 29, 2009)

"Mexico City locks itself in amid swine flu fears"
The Associated Press (April 27, 2009)

"MEXICO CITY (AP) — The cardinal said Mass in a shuttered cathedral. Soccer teams played to empty stadiums. A televised variety show filled its seats with cardboard cutouts...."

"...Mexico City residents - chilangos, they're called - are accustomed to living in public view...."

"...But on Sunday even the enormous Zocalo plaza,...was all but empty. A handful of women wearing surgical masks knelt on the plaza's stones and prayed, their arms reaching upward in a lonely vigil.

"Soldiers in surgical masks shooed away the faithful at the cathedral, pointing to a board with pieces of paper.

" 'There are no baptisms,' one read.

" 'No confirmations,' read another.

" 'No Masses,' said a third.

" 'Inside, Cardinal Norberto Rivera delivered a sermon to nearly empty pews, his pleas for divine intervention relayed over television and radio.

" ' 'Grant us the prudence and serenity to act with responsibility and to avoid being infected or to infect others,' he appealed to the Virgin of Guadalupe, Mexico's patron saint. 'Give help to health workers, keep vigil for the recovery of the sick and console those in mourning.'

" 'For the first time in 300 years, the cathedral also removed from storage an icon of the Lord of Health, which was placed on the principal altar by a procession of worshippers, Mexico's government news agency Notimex reported...."

Mutant Swine Flu Pandemic Possible - But Don't Panic

"World Health Organization: Swine flu could spread globally"
CNN (April 25, 2009)

"The presence of swine flu in Mexico and the United States is "a serious situation" that could develop into a pandemic, the World Health Organization's director-general said Saturday.

" 'This is an animal strain of the H1N1 virus and it has pandemic potential because it is infecting people,' Dr. Margaret Chan said Saturday speaking to reporters by phone.

"In Mexico, 68 people have died from swine flu, according to a statement from the U.S. Embassy in Mexico...."

I get curious when a news article mentions half of an important set of data, but not the other half. That many people dying is serious: but we can't know how serious unless we know how many people got the bug in the first place. The total number of cases in Mexico seems to be "around 943 nationwide." (FOX News)

Now we have a little more data. The articles were published two days apart, using different sources, and this is a very rapidly developing situation: so I take the 68 deaths / 943 cases ratio as very approximate. Still, it looks like very roughly 1 in 14 people who got this version of swine flu - and were diagnosed - died.

That's bad.

Particularly since this type of swine flu can apparently be passed from person to person (WSJ blog). Swine flue normally infects people who are in contact with pigs. (Which makes this up close and personal for me: raising pigs is a major part of the local economy.)

There used to be "swine flu vaccines." Then, in 1976, roughly 1 out of every 80,000^corrected people who got the vaccine develped Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). That's six times the usual rate. ¹ Nobody could show that it was the swine flu virus in the vaccine that caused GBS, but we stopped using it anyway. And the association of GBS with flu vaccinations stopped.

I could write something about today's America being risk-averse, but I've done too many overly-long posts this week.

If You're Concerned: Wear a Face Mask in Crowds, Wash Your Hands, and Stay Away from Pigs

Seriously: That's pretty good advice, if you live in an urban area where the new swine flu is making the rounds.

In Mexico City, "Authorities advised capital residents not to go to work if they felt ill, and to wear surgical masks if they had to move through crowds. A wider shutdown - perhaps including shutting down government offices - was being considered." (FOXNews)

Staying away from pigs probably won't do much good with this new swine flu, though.

Attack of the Mutant Virus - No, Really

Pigs can catch avian, human, and swine influenza viruses. (Just like us.) When different types of flu virus infect a pig at the same time, they can swap genes. That's happened this time.

The new strain's DNA comes from North American swine influenza, avian influenza, human influenza and a sort of swine influenza that's usually found in Asia and Europe. And, just to make things more interesting, this viral champion of diversity seems to be resistant to antivirus drugs.² (CDC, CNN)

Health Tip for the Day: Stay Inside and Watch Television or Surf the Web

I'm going out for a walk right after I finish this post and chat it up: but I'm slightly serious about that advice.

One reason that this mix of avian, swine, and human virus is such a problem is that people travel. A lot.

Information Technology is at a point now where quite a bit of business can be done over the Internet: everything from sending a proposal to videoconferencing. (If that sounds unlikely, consider this: my spellchecker accepted "videoconferencing" as a word. We're living in 'the future' now.)

I don't find it too hard to imagine a world where people live the old-fashioned way, never (physically) traveling more than a few miles from where they were born: but routinely communicating with people around the globe. I suppose there will be people who insist on seeing the Matterhorn and Singapore with their own eyes - but I'm getting off-topic.

WHO Alert Phases: Say What?

News articles mentioned health alert levels, sometimes indicating that they had something to do with WHO (World Health Organization). I did a little digging, and found this:

WHO Alert Phases:

1. Low risk of human cases
2. Higher risk of human cases
3. No or very limited human-to-human transmission
4. Evidence of increased human-to-human transmission
5. Evidence of significant human-to-human transmission
6. Efficient and sustained human-to-human transmission

Right now, globally, were at "3." (pandemicflu.gov)

Background and more information:

• CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
  • "Human Swine Influenza Investigation"
    (April 24, 2009)
  • "Key Facts about Swine Influenza (Swine Flu)"
  • "Swine Influenza (Flu)"
  • "Swine Influenza in Pigs and People " bochure (pdf)
  • "Influenza (Flu)"
    
• "Mexico Links Sickness, Deaths to Swine Flu"
  FOXNews (April 24, 2009)
• "Swine Flu: Look Hard Enough, and You’ll See Strange Things"
  Health Blog, Wall Street Journal
• "Influenza Virus Vaccine (Subvirion) (Intramuscular Route)"
  Mayo Clinic Staff
  • (Somewhat technical, but informative.)
• "What are pandemic alert phases and what phase are we in?"
  pandemicflu.gov
  • With link to relevant WHO page

List of posts relating to swine flu:

• "Swine Flu 2009"

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¹No: That doesn't mean that vaccinations (swine flu or not) cause GBS.

"Six times the usual rate" refers to the fact that, if something else doesn't kill them first, a tiny fraction of people get GBS - vaccination or no vaccination.

---

²UPDATE (April 25, 2009)

Thanks to bnsullivan, for this post:

• "Swine Flu: Looming menace or a blip on the epidemiological radar screen?
  Virtual Scratchpad (April 24, 2009)

This post seems to be well-researched and common-sense. Also has link to WHO report which clarifies the 'antiviral drug resistant' nature of the new swine flu.

Sample paragraph:

"...Here is another worrisome point: The World Health Organization (WHO), which also issued a brief report on human Swine Flu infections on its website today, notes, 'The Swine Influenza A/H1N1 viruses characterized in this outbreak have not been previously detected in pigs or humans.' In other words, these outbreaks appear to be caused by a novel pathogen...."

The quote is from "Influenza-like illness in the United States and Mexico" (WHO (April 24, 2009)). The WHO report paragraph is a sort of good news/bad news situation:

"...The Swine Influenza A/H1N1 viruses characterized in this outbreak have not been previously detected in pigs or humans. The viruses so far characterized have been sensitive to oseltamivir, but resistant to both amantadine and rimantadine...." (WHO)

So: This is a not-seen-before virus. It's resistant to two antiviral drugs. On the other hand, it isn't resistant to another.