The headline is scary:
"H1N1 flu strain found in Canadian turkey flock"
Reuters India (October 21, 2009)
"Turkeys in the Canadian province of Ontario have become infected with the H1N1 flu virus, but no birds or eggs from the farm entered the food supply, provincial government officials said on Tuesday.
"The infection poses minimal risk to human health, Dr. Arlene King, Ontario's chief medical officer of health, said in a news conference in Toronto.
"However, she noted the discovery highlights the need for those who work with farm animals to be vaccinated for both seasonal flu and the pandemic H1N1 flu strain...."
Looks like Canadian Turkey farms work about the same way their counterparts here in central Minnesota do: with health safeguards that stop short of armed guards, razor-wire fences and killer robots - but not by much.
Of course around here, when we see a sign at the gate that says something like "disease-controlled area: no entry without authorization," we figure that we aren't supposed to go in unless we've got some well-defined reason - and the permission of the owner.
And, we don't go in.
One thing I'll say for the "oppressive" atmosphere of small town America and how it "stifles" people: folks who have grown up in places like this seem to generally have the good sense to pay attention when a neighbor makes it clear that a certain area is really, seriously, off-limits.
But, like everywhere else, there are the occasional jerks and fools.
Back to those diseased turkeys.
From what the article said, it looks like the Canadian system did what it's supposed to: caught a disease outbreak before it hit the food supply.
And, followed up on people who had contact with the birds.
About the turkeys:
"...The turkeys' owner has voluntarily agreed to quarantine the infected birds, but they aren't likely to be prematurely slaughtered, said Dr. Deb Stark, Ontario's chief veterinarian...."
List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:
Showing posts with label influenza A(H1N1). Show all posts
Showing posts with label influenza A(H1N1). Show all posts
Monday, November 30, 2009
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Swine Flu Vaccine Pulled in Canada: One Batch
"Batch of H1N1 vaccines pulled off the market in Canada despite big pharma conspiracies"
Examiner.com (November 24, 2009)
"GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) pharmaceuticals notified the Canadian Government that a batch of H1N1 vaccine had to be pulled off the market because of six (6) severe allergic reactions to the vaccine. The batch constituted 170,000 doses of the vaccine, and most of them may have already been administered.
"Several anti-vaccine groups have asserted that "big pharma" is constantly in collusion with other agencies (public and private) to cover-up vaccine adverse reactions. This recent move by GSK over only six people with reactions among thousands (perhaps millions) who have received the H1N1 vaccine seems to disprove those assertions.
"Apparently, "big pharma" is unable to cover-up six cases of adverse reactions and stands to lose millions in both stock and from H1N1 vaccine sales. Did the vaccine watchdogs triumph? Not quite. GSK, like other manufacturers, participate in collecting data on adverse reactions through different means. In Canada, the Public Health Agency of Canada is in charge of collecting information on any adverse reactions to H1N1 influenza vaccine or any other vaccine. Worse yet for some anti-vaccine groups, most vaccines in Canada do not contain thimerosal, a mercury-containing preservative (not adjuvant) that some groups continue to assert that it causes neurological damage despite continued evidence to the contrary. (Either that, or all studies are wrong.)..."
Oh, I don't know. Someone who has built a world-view around the assumption that shape-shifting, space-alien lizard people are running the world (August 23, 2009) isn't going to let a few new facts change that assumption.
"Batch of swine flu vaccines studied in Canada"
The Associated Press (November 24, 2009)
"Canadian doctors have been advised not to use a batch of 170,000 doses of swine flu vaccine while authorities investigate reports of allergic reactions among recipients, drug maker GlaxoSmithKline PLC said Tuesday.
"Authorities routinely monitor vaccines for any signals of problems, such as the allergic reactions that do occur, rarely, every year.
"Company spokeswoman Gwenan White said that GlaxoSmithKline advised medical staff in Canada last week to refrain from using one batch of the vaccine while they look into reports that that it might have caused more allergic reactions than normal.
" 'One batch has seen a slightly increased rate of anaphylaxis, she said. Anaphylaxis is life-threatening type of allergic shock...."
That is serious: but six cases among thousands - tens of thousands - hundreds of thousands or more - is not a huge percentage.
As the spokesman for Canada's health minister Tim Vail, said, "..."We're not seeing any thing wild or spooky or crazy about our vaccine at all," Vail said, arguing it may have been a statistical anomaly that the reactions occurred...."
But, of course, if Mr. Vail was one of the shape-shifting, space-alien lizard people: that's just what he would say! And, to a dedicated conspiracy theorist, that would prove that the lizard people were real. Or that the Illuminati were really behind the H1N1 pandemic, or that it was all a plot by Jesuit assassins: Or whatever.
And, let's remember that it's GlaxoSmithKline, or GSK, the pharmaceutical company that's providing the vaccine, that recommended pulling that one batch. I think it's possible that GSK remembers 1976, and don't want a repeat of that panicky response.
Do I think there's a risk? Of course. Life is risky. Crossing the street is risky. The trick is to figure out when the risk is low enough to justify the gain of, say, getting to the other side of the street.
In the case of getting vaccinated against H1N1 2009, once I looked at the information that's out there, it was a no-brainer.
Related posts:
Examiner.com (November 24, 2009)
"GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) pharmaceuticals notified the Canadian Government that a batch of H1N1 vaccine had to be pulled off the market because of six (6) severe allergic reactions to the vaccine. The batch constituted 170,000 doses of the vaccine, and most of them may have already been administered.
"Several anti-vaccine groups have asserted that "big pharma" is constantly in collusion with other agencies (public and private) to cover-up vaccine adverse reactions. This recent move by GSK over only six people with reactions among thousands (perhaps millions) who have received the H1N1 vaccine seems to disprove those assertions.
"Apparently, "big pharma" is unable to cover-up six cases of adverse reactions and stands to lose millions in both stock and from H1N1 vaccine sales. Did the vaccine watchdogs triumph? Not quite. GSK, like other manufacturers, participate in collecting data on adverse reactions through different means. In Canada, the Public Health Agency of Canada is in charge of collecting information on any adverse reactions to H1N1 influenza vaccine or any other vaccine. Worse yet for some anti-vaccine groups, most vaccines in Canada do not contain thimerosal, a mercury-containing preservative (not adjuvant) that some groups continue to assert that it causes neurological damage despite continued evidence to the contrary. (Either that, or all studies are wrong.)..."
Oh, I don't know. Someone who has built a world-view around the assumption that shape-shifting, space-alien lizard people are running the world (August 23, 2009) isn't going to let a few new facts change that assumption.
H1N1 Vaccine Withdrawn: One Batch
The Public Health Agency of Canada's and GSK's actions are in the news:"Batch of swine flu vaccines studied in Canada"
The Associated Press (November 24, 2009)
"Canadian doctors have been advised not to use a batch of 170,000 doses of swine flu vaccine while authorities investigate reports of allergic reactions among recipients, drug maker GlaxoSmithKline PLC said Tuesday.
"Authorities routinely monitor vaccines for any signals of problems, such as the allergic reactions that do occur, rarely, every year.
"Company spokeswoman Gwenan White said that GlaxoSmithKline advised medical staff in Canada last week to refrain from using one batch of the vaccine while they look into reports that that it might have caused more allergic reactions than normal.
" 'One batch has seen a slightly increased rate of anaphylaxis, she said. Anaphylaxis is life-threatening type of allergic shock...."
That is serious: but six cases among thousands - tens of thousands - hundreds of thousands or more - is not a huge percentage.
As the spokesman for Canada's health minister Tim Vail, said, "..."We're not seeing any thing wild or spooky or crazy about our vaccine at all," Vail said, arguing it may have been a statistical anomaly that the reactions occurred...."
But, of course, if Mr. Vail was one of the shape-shifting, space-alien lizard people: that's just what he would say! And, to a dedicated conspiracy theorist, that would prove that the lizard people were real. Or that the Illuminati were really behind the H1N1 pandemic, or that it was all a plot by Jesuit assassins: Or whatever.
And, let's remember that it's GlaxoSmithKline, or GSK, the pharmaceutical company that's providing the vaccine, that recommended pulling that one batch. I think it's possible that GSK remembers 1976, and don't want a repeat of that panicky response.
Would I Let My Family Get Vaccinated?
Yes. My son got an H1N1 vaccination at the local school yesterday. I'd have gotten the shot myself, except that the vaccine is being rationed. The school wouldn't have gotten the doses they did, if they hadn't signed an agreement that they'd only give it to authorized people.Do I think there's a risk? Of course. Life is risky. Crossing the street is risky. The trick is to figure out when the risk is low enough to justify the gain of, say, getting to the other side of the street.
In the case of getting vaccinated against H1N1 2009, once I looked at the information that's out there, it was a no-brainer.
Related posts:
- "Swine Flu / 2009 H1N1: Vaccines, Conspiracy Theories; and Common Sense"
(August 23, 2009)
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Swine Flu: Pandemic H1N1 2009, Common Sense and the Lizard People
"A H1N1 flu to-do (and don't do) list"
CNN (October 14, 2009)
"Swine flu vaccines are rolling out this month -- finally. Health-care workers in Indiana and Tennessee were the first to get the nose-spray version, while New Yorkers clamoring for the H1N1 vaccine finally had their chance too.
"However, the onslaught of information about H1N1 -- be it playground rumors, employer signs telling you to cover your cough, memos from your kids' school, or scary-sounding news reports -- is making it pretty hard to figure out what you should be doing right now.
"Although some people have already been vaccinated, it could be weeks -- depending on your age and risk factors -- before you even get a chance at the shot (or spray). So now what?
"Sometimes it feels like you have two choices. A: Wring your hands endlessly about something over which you have no control. Or, B: Tune out the static and pretend this is all just a horrible dream. (Call it the ignore-the-whole-sorry-mess-until-my-neighbor-is-sick approach.)..."
I wasn't surprised to read that choices A and B were both pretty much a waste of time and effort.
The article is a rather anti-climactic set of common-sense advice:
That "don't panic" bit of advice reminds me of a minor crisis at one of my jobs. I wasn't emoting as much as some of the other employees, and a supervisor asked me if I cared about the problem. I asked, "would it help if I panicked?" The answer was "no." (We solved the problem, eventually.)
Back to H1N1.
The CNN article repeats an AP poll, saying that about 1/3 of American parents haven't had their children immunized. My son got a flu shot today. (I haven't found out if it's specifically for H1N1 yet.) His arm is sore, but that he'll get over.
Very few people really enjoy getting stuck with needles: but immunizations really do make sense. I doubt that I'll be able to get an H1N1 vaccination until the pandemic's over: but I did get my annual flu shot.
I'll be back, another day, with some 'conspiracy theory' angles of the H1N1 pandemic. And, no: I don't think They (Masons, Illuminati, Rosicrucians, Shriners or the Girl Scouts) are either making the whole thing up - or engineered the H1N1 virus. (I suppose the Girl Scouts might be plotting to sell more cookies as a result of this pandemic - but I can't figure out how.)
Although I'm taking sensible precautions, it's quite possible that I'll get it myself. In which case I am going to do my level best to stay alive.
But I'm not going to go crazy with fear or anxiety. 2009 H1N1 Flu is a serious disease: it seems to be more infectious than the usual run on influenza viruses, and can hit people a lot harder. But it's no Satan Bug.
I'll take reasonable precautions to keep myself, my family and my neighbors uninfected, and leave it at that. Life is inherently risky - and 2009 H1N1 Flu is just another risk, like being hit by a car or falling down stairs.
List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:
CNN (October 14, 2009)
"Swine flu vaccines are rolling out this month -- finally. Health-care workers in Indiana and Tennessee were the first to get the nose-spray version, while New Yorkers clamoring for the H1N1 vaccine finally had their chance too.
"However, the onslaught of information about H1N1 -- be it playground rumors, employer signs telling you to cover your cough, memos from your kids' school, or scary-sounding news reports -- is making it pretty hard to figure out what you should be doing right now.
"Although some people have already been vaccinated, it could be weeks -- depending on your age and risk factors -- before you even get a chance at the shot (or spray). So now what?
"Sometimes it feels like you have two choices. A: Wring your hands endlessly about something over which you have no control. Or, B: Tune out the static and pretend this is all just a horrible dream. (Call it the ignore-the-whole-sorry-mess-until-my-neighbor-is-sick approach.)..."
I wasn't surprised to read that choices A and B were both pretty much a waste of time and effort.
The article is a rather anti-climactic set of common-sense advice:
- Look up local flu outbreaks
- Don't panic
- Stay home
- If you're sick
- Duh
- I'm as gung-ho for the work ethic as the next fellow - but seriously!
- If you're sick
- Understand the risks
- Get a pneumonia vaccine
- Wash your hands
- Don't stock up on face masks or Tamiflu
- Get a swine flu vaccine -- really
- Be prepared
That "don't panic" bit of advice reminds me of a minor crisis at one of my jobs. I wasn't emoting as much as some of the other employees, and a supervisor asked me if I cared about the problem. I asked, "would it help if I panicked?" The answer was "no." (We solved the problem, eventually.)
Back to H1N1.
The CNN article repeats an AP poll, saying that about 1/3 of American parents haven't had their children immunized. My son got a flu shot today. (I haven't found out if it's specifically for H1N1 yet.) His arm is sore, but that he'll get over.
Very few people really enjoy getting stuck with needles: but immunizations really do make sense. I doubt that I'll be able to get an H1N1 vaccination until the pandemic's over: but I did get my annual flu shot.
Conspiracies, Lizard People, and CNN
For someone looking for an expose, revealing that space-alien shape-shifting lizard people like former President Bush and the British Royal family (I'm not making that up) are behind the H1N1 pandemic - this CNN article will be an enormous disappointment. Or, proof of the lizard people's nefarious plots: they're so powerful, you see, that they're suppressing The Truth (which is, 'as is well known,' Out There).I'll be back, another day, with some 'conspiracy theory' angles of the H1N1 pandemic. And, no: I don't think They (Masons, Illuminati, Rosicrucians, Shriners or the Girl Scouts) are either making the whole thing up - or engineered the H1N1 virus. (I suppose the Girl Scouts might be plotting to sell more cookies as a result of this pandemic - but I can't figure out how.)
Pandemic (H1N1) 2009? For Me, It's Personal
H1N1 / swine flu is going the rounds here in the central Minnesota town where I live. Down in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area, a youngster was the seventh Minnesotan to die of the disease. (October 8, 2009) A friend of my son's got H1N1, but happily he's still alive.Although I'm taking sensible precautions, it's quite possible that I'll get it myself. In which case I am going to do my level best to stay alive.
But I'm not going to go crazy with fear or anxiety. 2009 H1N1 Flu is a serious disease: it seems to be more infectious than the usual run on influenza viruses, and can hit people a lot harder. But it's no Satan Bug.
I'll take reasonable precautions to keep myself, my family and my neighbors uninfected, and leave it at that. Life is inherently risky - and 2009 H1N1 Flu is just another risk, like being hit by a car or falling down stairs.
List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Swine Flu / Influenza A(H1N1) - Epidemic in Japan, New Virulent Strain, and Two Cases Down the Street: Now it's Personal
"WHO warns of severe form of swine flu"
Reuters India (August 29, 2009)
"Doctors are reporting a severe form of swine flu that goes straight to the lungs, causing severe illness in otherwise healthy young people and requiring expensive hospital treatment, the World Health Organization said Friday.
Some countries are reporting that as many as 15 percent of patients hospitalized with the new H1N1 pandemic virus need intensive care, further straining already overburdened healthcare systems, WHO said in an update on the pandemic..."
"...Earlier, WHO reported that H1N1 had reached epidemic levels in Japan, signaling an early start to what may be a long influenza season this year, and that it was also worsening in tropical regions.
" 'Perhaps most significantly, clinicians from around the world are reporting a very severe form of disease, also in young and otherwise healthy people, which is rarely seen during seasonal influenza infections,' WHO said.
" 'In these patients, the virus directly infects the lung, causing severe respiratory failure. Saving these lives depends on highly specialized and demanding care in intensive care units, usually with long and costly stays.'..."
There's quite a bit more to the Reuters article: It's not particularly hard to read, although the language gets a tad technical in spots - unavoidable in discussing a disease, its symptoms, and probable effects.
Of which there has been some. Last spring, hog farmers in Egypt were pretty agitated. The Egyptian government, reacting to no swine flu cases - at all - in the country, started slaughtering pigs. (April 30, 2009)
I'd say that was more government hysteria than public hysteria. Not Egypt's finest hour.
Pig farming is a big part of the local economy - and, so far, Washington hasn't freaked out and ordered them all killed. And, although I'm pretty sure that a few of the 4,000 or so people who live in town are agitated about swine flu, I've yet to see anything I'd call "hysteria."
On the other hand, several people at the school down the street got infected with H1N1 over the summer. Two have been hospitalized. The school district explained that the infected group was just that: a group. And, that reasonable precautions have been taken - so parents don't need to worry about sending their kids to school on September 8.
And, yes: school opening is going according to schedule.
From what's in the public accounts, it sounds reasonable.
Granted, our youngest child will be home schooled starting this year - but that's been on the agenda for over a year. Our oldest started home schooling - at the request of the school - in 7th grade, and it's worked so well that we've given each of the kids the option. So far it's 4/4 for home schooling.
Interestingly, WHO hasn't found that people with AIDS are at a higher-than-usual risk from this years swine flu / H1N1.
WHO's updating its home page for H1N1: "Pandemic (H1N1) 2009." This is one of the better online resources I've found: for relatively current, pertinent, and plausible information about the pandemic.
In Japan, make that "the epidemic." They're not having a good time there, according to Reuters.
List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:
Reuters India (August 29, 2009)
"Doctors are reporting a severe form of swine flu that goes straight to the lungs, causing severe illness in otherwise healthy young people and requiring expensive hospital treatment, the World Health Organization said Friday.
Some countries are reporting that as many as 15 percent of patients hospitalized with the new H1N1 pandemic virus need intensive care, further straining already overburdened healthcare systems, WHO said in an update on the pandemic..."
"...Earlier, WHO reported that H1N1 had reached epidemic levels in Japan, signaling an early start to what may be a long influenza season this year, and that it was also worsening in tropical regions.
" 'Perhaps most significantly, clinicians from around the world are reporting a very severe form of disease, also in young and otherwise healthy people, which is rarely seen during seasonal influenza infections,' WHO said.
" 'In these patients, the virus directly infects the lung, causing severe respiratory failure. Saving these lives depends on highly specialized and demanding care in intensive care units, usually with long and costly stays.'..."
There's quite a bit more to the Reuters article: It's not particularly hard to read, although the language gets a tad technical in spots - unavoidable in discussing a disease, its symptoms, and probable effects.
Panic in the Streets? Not Here
I suppose by Monday evening there'll be more op ed pieces about fear-mongering and public hysteria.Of which there has been some. Last spring, hog farmers in Egypt were pretty agitated. The Egyptian government, reacting to no swine flu cases - at all - in the country, started slaughtering pigs. (April 30, 2009)
I'd say that was more government hysteria than public hysteria. Not Egypt's finest hour.
Pig farming is a big part of the local economy - and, so far, Washington hasn't freaked out and ordered them all killed. And, although I'm pretty sure that a few of the 4,000 or so people who live in town are agitated about swine flu, I've yet to see anything I'd call "hysteria."
On the other hand, several people at the school down the street got infected with H1N1 over the summer. Two have been hospitalized. The school district explained that the infected group was just that: a group. And, that reasonable precautions have been taken - so parents don't need to worry about sending their kids to school on September 8.
And, yes: school opening is going according to schedule.
From what's in the public accounts, it sounds reasonable.
Granted, our youngest child will be home schooled starting this year - but that's been on the agenda for over a year. Our oldest started home schooling - at the request of the school - in 7th grade, and it's worked so well that we've given each of the kids the option. So far it's 4/4 for home schooling.
Back to that Reuters Article
People with asthma and diabetes may be at higher risk from this mutant flu - which makes it a bit personal for me. I've got diabetes, and several members of the extended family have asthma.Interestingly, WHO hasn't found that people with AIDS are at a higher-than-usual risk from this years swine flu / H1N1.
What's in a Name? WHO's settled on H1N1
I see that WHO is calling the pandemic 'H1N1' - which is good enough for me. Labels are handy things: more so when they're consistently used.WHO's updating its home page for H1N1: "Pandemic (H1N1) 2009." This is one of the better online resources I've found: for relatively current, pertinent, and plausible information about the pandemic.
In Japan, make that "the epidemic." They're not having a good time there, according to Reuters.
List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Swine Flu / 2009 H1N1: Vaccines, Conspiracy Theories; and Common Sense
"WHO official predicts H1N1 'explosion'"
CNN (August 21, 2009)
"The world will soon see an "explosion" of swine flu cases as the H1N1 virus spreads rapidly around the world, a top World Health Organization official said Friday.
"Spread of the virus is entering an 'acceleration period' and it is certain that there will be more cases and more deaths, said Dr. Shin Young-soo, the organization's regional director for the Western Pacific.
" 'Most countries may see a doubling of cases every three to four days for two months until peak transmission is reached,' he said at a symposium in Beijing, China. 'At a certain point, there will seem to be an explosion in case numbers. I believe it is very likely that all countries will see community-level transmission by the end of the year.'..."
"...'We will only be safe when we have applied these lessons in every country dealing with this virus,' [Dr.] Shin [Shin Young-soo, the organization's regional director for the Western Pacific.] said. 'We need to learn quickly since, as I believe, it appears that this pandemic will get worse before the situation gets better.'"
The article gives a pretty good look at where the H1N1/swine flu epidemic is concerned.
The WHO (World Health Organization) has a few words about 'antivirals' -
"Recommended use of antivirals / Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 briefing note 8" WHO (August 21, 2009).
And, about the safety of vaccines -
"Safety of pandemic vaccines / Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 briefing note 6"
WHO (August 6, 2009).
Okay: Maybe there is some sort of vast conspiracy going on. (May 8, 2009) Then again, maybe not.
It's possible, although in my view quite unlikely, that the CDC, WHO, and one of those secret organizations that conspiracy-theory buffs like to invoke, is involved in some vast global conspiracy. It's even possible - although wildly unlikely - that space-alien, shape-shifting lizard people are behind the whole thing. (January 14, 2009, in another blog)
But I rather doubt it.
There's a kernel of truth in the claims that the H1N1 flu vaccine may be dangerous. All vaccines are dangerous. The trick is to balance benefit and risk. (May 1, 2009)
Do I have to say it? Hysteria is not a reasonable response to the danger from the current influenza pandemic.
Common sense, yes. It's the same old boring stuff from childhood and hygiene classes: wash your hands; wash your food; don't inhale deeply when someone near you sneezes; don't lick door handles. There's more, but you get the idea.
I don't want to 'feed hysteria' - wherever it is. On the other hand, there's something new to say about swine flu / influenza A (H1N1), and it seemed like a good idea to share it.
About that flu vaccine? I'm at the age where getting a flu vaccine as autumn comes is good sense. I expect to get another one this year. If it includes an edge over this year's H1N1, fine.
Finally: Yes, I know. If it hasn't happened already, in tests, someone who got the new vaccine felt bad later, or maybe even died. That's tragic. But some people are sensitive to some substances.
The swine flu vaccine of 1976 was a case in point. About 1 in 80,0001 people who got the vaccine developed GBS, a very unpleasant condition, and died. (May 1, 2009) If there were no threat of swine flu, it wouldn't make sense to take the vaccine. If the odds of contracting, spreading, and possibly dying from swine flu were more than 1/80,000, taking the vaccine would have made sense.
My guess is that today's swine flu vaccine will be like every other: a tiny percentage of people will be sensitive to it - and there's no way of finding out, without taking the vaccine.
It's not a perfect situation; but it's not a perfect world, either.
List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:
Update (August 23, 2009)
A tip of the hat to lizditz, on Twitter, for the heads-up on this article:
"A Defense of Childhood Influenza Vaccination and Squalene-Containing Adjuvants; Joseph Mercola's 'Dirty Little Secret' "
Science-Based Medicine (August 21, 2009)
I haven't researched the specific assertions made in the article thoroughly: but I think it's worth reading as an example of how to think about benefit/risk ratios and the relative safety of vaccines.
One interesting point is that the SBM article asserts that the rate of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) appearing in people was 1 in 1,000,000. I'd been using a figure of 1 in 100,000 in several posts. (August 23, 2009, April 25, 2009, April 30, 2009, May 1, 2009) So, I had to go back and check my numbers.
And found out that I'd made a mistake - excessive rounding of the numbers.
I'd used as my source a CBS article whose writers couldn't seem to get over the horror of 1976, when a flu pandemic didn't happen - and 500 people came down with GBS. I'm not trivializing their experience: Guillain-Barré syndrome is, to say the least, unpleasant.
And 500 feels like a really big number.
CBS made the mistake of including other numbers in their article. Like 40,000,000 people getting immunized with the demon drug. And 500 coming down with GBS.
There's a certain amount of comparing apples and oranges here: the JAMA report didn't use 1976 data. Their study used data from a program that started in 1990. Part of the results:
"...The annual reporting rate decreased 4-fold from a high of 0.17 per 100 000 vaccinees in 1993-1994 to 0.04 in 2002-2003...."
Okay: a midpoint between 0.17/100,000 and 0.04/100,000 is right in the neighborhood of SBM's 1/1,000,000.
Pretty good odds, if the alternative is being open to infection from a potentially deadly disease: with the bonus of knowing you're spreading it to others.
CNN (August 21, 2009)
"The world will soon see an "explosion" of swine flu cases as the H1N1 virus spreads rapidly around the world, a top World Health Organization official said Friday.
"Spread of the virus is entering an 'acceleration period' and it is certain that there will be more cases and more deaths, said Dr. Shin Young-soo, the organization's regional director for the Western Pacific.
" 'Most countries may see a doubling of cases every three to four days for two months until peak transmission is reached,' he said at a symposium in Beijing, China. 'At a certain point, there will seem to be an explosion in case numbers. I believe it is very likely that all countries will see community-level transmission by the end of the year.'..."
"...'We will only be safe when we have applied these lessons in every country dealing with this virus,' [Dr.] Shin [Shin Young-soo, the organization's regional director for the Western Pacific.] said. 'We need to learn quickly since, as I believe, it appears that this pandemic will get worse before the situation gets better.'"
The article gives a pretty good look at where the H1N1/swine flu epidemic is concerned.
The WHO (World Health Organization) has a few words about 'antivirals' -
"Recommended use of antivirals / Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 briefing note 8" WHO (August 21, 2009).
And, about the safety of vaccines -
"Safety of pandemic vaccines / Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 briefing note 6"
WHO (August 6, 2009).
It's All Some Kinda Plot, Apparently
If you go to Google and key in these words - swine flu vaccine danger - you'll see links to news, op-ed, and dire warnings about the awful dangers presented: by the vaccine and the dark forces behind it. "Globalization" figured prominently on the samples I glanced at.Okay: Maybe there is some sort of vast conspiracy going on. (May 8, 2009) Then again, maybe not.
It's possible, although in my view quite unlikely, that the CDC, WHO, and one of those secret organizations that conspiracy-theory buffs like to invoke, is involved in some vast global conspiracy. It's even possible - although wildly unlikely - that space-alien, shape-shifting lizard people are behind the whole thing. (January 14, 2009, in another blog)
But I rather doubt it.
There's a kernel of truth in the claims that the H1N1 flu vaccine may be dangerous. All vaccines are dangerous. The trick is to balance benefit and risk. (May 1, 2009)
Hysteria, No; Common Sense, yes
There's no shortage of op-ed pieces about swine flu / influenza A(H1N1) "hysteria" - which may exist somewhere. I've read about it, but have yet to encounter an example.Do I have to say it? Hysteria is not a reasonable response to the danger from the current influenza pandemic.
Common sense, yes. It's the same old boring stuff from childhood and hygiene classes: wash your hands; wash your food; don't inhale deeply when someone near you sneezes; don't lick door handles. There's more, but you get the idea.
I don't want to 'feed hysteria' - wherever it is. On the other hand, there's something new to say about swine flu / influenza A (H1N1), and it seemed like a good idea to share it.
About that flu vaccine? I'm at the age where getting a flu vaccine as autumn comes is good sense. I expect to get another one this year. If it includes an edge over this year's H1N1, fine.
Finally: Yes, I know. If it hasn't happened already, in tests, someone who got the new vaccine felt bad later, or maybe even died. That's tragic. But some people are sensitive to some substances.
The swine flu vaccine of 1976 was a case in point. About 1 in 80,0001 people who got the vaccine developed GBS, a very unpleasant condition, and died. (May 1, 2009) If there were no threat of swine flu, it wouldn't make sense to take the vaccine. If the odds of contracting, spreading, and possibly dying from swine flu were more than 1/80,000, taking the vaccine would have made sense.
My guess is that today's swine flu vaccine will be like every other: a tiny percentage of people will be sensitive to it - and there's no way of finding out, without taking the vaccine.
It's not a perfect situation; but it's not a perfect world, either.
List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:
Update (August 23, 2009)
A tip of the hat to lizditz, on Twitter, for the heads-up on this article:
"A Defense of Childhood Influenza Vaccination and Squalene-Containing Adjuvants; Joseph Mercola's 'Dirty Little Secret' "
Science-Based Medicine (August 21, 2009)
I haven't researched the specific assertions made in the article thoroughly: but I think it's worth reading as an example of how to think about benefit/risk ratios and the relative safety of vaccines.
One interesting point is that the SBM article asserts that the rate of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) appearing in people was 1 in 1,000,000. I'd been using a figure of 1 in 100,000 in several posts. (August 23, 2009, April 25, 2009, April 30, 2009, May 1, 2009) So, I had to go back and check my numbers.
And found out that I'd made a mistake - excessive rounding of the numbers.
I'd used as my source a CBS article whose writers couldn't seem to get over the horror of 1976, when a flu pandemic didn't happen - and 500 people came down with GBS. I'm not trivializing their experience: Guillain-Barré syndrome is, to say the least, unpleasant.
And 500 feels like a really big number.
CBS made the mistake of including other numbers in their article. Like 40,000,000 people getting immunized with the demon drug. And 500 coming down with GBS.
Oops - A Correction
500 divided by 40,000,000 (or 500/40,000,000) is 0.0000125: Or 1/80,000. I rounded that - arguably too much, to 1 in 100,000. I've revised/corrected the posts, with a footnote leading to this update.One in 80,000; One in 1,000,000 - What's Going On?
It looks to me like SBM didn't take the CBS News numbers, but instead went to "Guillain-Barré Syndrome Following Influenza Vaccination," Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), Vol. 292 No. 20, November 24, 2004, by by Penina Haber, MPH; Frank DeStefano, MD, MPH; Fredrick J. Angulo, DVM, PhD; John Iskander, MD, MPH; Sean V. Shadomy, DVM, MPH; Eric Weintraub, MPH; Robert T. Chen, MD, MA.There's a certain amount of comparing apples and oranges here: the JAMA report didn't use 1976 data. Their study used data from a program that started in 1990. Part of the results:
"...The annual reporting rate decreased 4-fold from a high of 0.17 per 100 000 vaccinees in 1993-1994 to 0.04 in 2002-2003...."
Okay: a midpoint between 0.17/100,000 and 0.04/100,000 is right in the neighborhood of SBM's 1/1,000,000.
Pretty good odds, if the alternative is being open to infection from a potentially deadly disease: with the bonus of knowing you're spreading it to others.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Swine Flue: Still There, Still Spreading Fast; and a Vaccine on the Way
"Global swine flu deaths top 1,100"
CNN (August 5, 2009)
"More than 1,100 people worldwide have died from swine flu since it emerged in Mexico and the U.S. in April, according to the latest figures from the World Health Organization.
"As of July 31, the total number of victims killed by the H1N1 virus, also known as swine flu, stood at 1,154 -- an increase of 338 since WHO's previous update on July 27.
"The virus has spread around the world with unprecedented speed, spreading as widely in six weeks as common influenza viruses spread in the six months, according to WHO.
"WHO data showed the total number of laboratory confirmed cases at 162,380, but the number could be higher since individual cases no longer have to be tested or reported...."
So far, 168 countries and territories have reported one or more cases of the infection. That number is up, with new cases in
Good news: There's a vaccine that's in clinical trials now.
Bad news: In America, at least, it won't be available until about October.
"... In a background briefing with reporters on Tuesday, two senior administration officials said the vaccine, which is still in clinical trials, would require two shots. The first shot would be followed by a second shot three weeks later. Immunity to the virus would finally kick in two weeks after that.
"That means someone who is vaccinated by the time the program is expected to launch in late October won't get protection until late fall...."
(CNN)
I'm not terribly surprised that developing a new vaccine takes that long, from getting something that works in the lab, through the process of seeing how it works in most people, to producing and distributing 96,000,000 doses. That's what a company has contracted to provide for nine governments, according to CNN.
It won't be enough. Odds are that around 160,000,000 Americans, including me, will need the vaccine.
It might be fun to come up with a story involving Elvis, the Montauk Monster, and space aliens with invisible flying saucers that 'reveals the real truth' about Swine Flu / 2009 H1N1 Flu. But I wouldn't believe a word of it.
I certainly don't want to add to the "gargantuan fearmongering engaged in by western governments" that one serious thinker apparently believed would be used to prepare the gullible public for martial law.
Just the same, I think it would be silly to ignore a fast-spreading and potentially lethal disease. So, from time to time as something new comes up, I'll probably write a post on this topic.
Meanwhile, there's the usual common-sense advice: wash your hands before you eat or prepare food, and all that.
List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:
CNN (August 5, 2009)
"More than 1,100 people worldwide have died from swine flu since it emerged in Mexico and the U.S. in April, according to the latest figures from the World Health Organization.
"As of July 31, the total number of victims killed by the H1N1 virus, also known as swine flu, stood at 1,154 -- an increase of 338 since WHO's previous update on July 27.
"The virus has spread around the world with unprecedented speed, spreading as widely in six weeks as common influenza viruses spread in the six months, according to WHO.
"WHO data showed the total number of laboratory confirmed cases at 162,380, but the number could be higher since individual cases no longer have to be tested or reported...."
So far, 168 countries and territories have reported one or more cases of the infection. That number is up, with new cases in
- Azerbaijan
- Gabon
- Grenada
- Kazakhstan
- Moldova
- Monaco
- Nauru
- Swaziland
- Suriname
Swine Flu Vaccine in Development
There's a sort of good news/bad news aspect to news about a vaccine against this Swine Flu / 2009 H1N1 Flu.Good news: There's a vaccine that's in clinical trials now.
Bad news: In America, at least, it won't be available until about October.
"... In a background briefing with reporters on Tuesday, two senior administration officials said the vaccine, which is still in clinical trials, would require two shots. The first shot would be followed by a second shot three weeks later. Immunity to the virus would finally kick in two weeks after that.
"That means someone who is vaccinated by the time the program is expected to launch in late October won't get protection until late fall...."
(CNN)
I'm not terribly surprised that developing a new vaccine takes that long, from getting something that works in the lab, through the process of seeing how it works in most people, to producing and distributing 96,000,000 doses. That's what a company has contracted to provide for nine governments, according to CNN.
It won't be enough. Odds are that around 160,000,000 Americans, including me, will need the vaccine.
Sounds Like Some Kinda Plot
The lack of fit between how many people could use the new vaccine, when they would need it, and how much will be available - plus its not being available right now - will probably spawn conspiracy theories. I wrote about conspiracy theories and the current pandemic earlier this year. (May 8, 2009)It might be fun to come up with a story involving Elvis, the Montauk Monster, and space aliens with invisible flying saucers that 'reveals the real truth' about Swine Flu / 2009 H1N1 Flu. But I wouldn't believe a word of it.
I certainly don't want to add to the "gargantuan fearmongering engaged in by western governments" that one serious thinker apparently believed would be used to prepare the gullible public for martial law.
Just the same, I think it would be silly to ignore a fast-spreading and potentially lethal disease. So, from time to time as something new comes up, I'll probably write a post on this topic.
Meanwhile, there's the usual common-sense advice: wash your hands before you eat or prepare food, and all that.
List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:
Monday, June 15, 2009
Woman in Scotland Gets Swine Flu, Dies
"Scotland reports first 'swine flu' death outside Americas"
CNN (June 12, 2009)
"A person with swine flu died in Scotland on Sunday, the government announced, marking the first known death of a swine flu patient outside of the Americas, according to the latest World Health Organization information.
" Jacqueline Fleming, 38, had been "ill in hospital for a number of weeks," her family said in a statement Monday.
" 'Our whole family is absolutely devastated and we are doing everything we can to support Jacqueline's sons and her partner,' the statement said.
"She had 'underlying health conditions,' the Scottish government said, without elaborating.
" 'We are now waiting for the results of the death certificate to determine the cause of death,' the statement said.
"A total of 145 people had died from the H1N1 virus, as swine flu is officially known, as of Friday, according to the WHO...."
The article is a pretty good overview of what happened in the U.K. After the inconsistencies in reports on assistant principle Mitchell Weiner's "pre-existing medical conditions," I'm taking the Scottish Government's "underlying health conditions" statement with a grain of salt.
It's not that I think there's some vast conspiracy: but I do think that some officials are convinced that what they regard as the ignorant masses will panic if they aren't lied to. I don't think that's a good idea, but then I'm part of the ignorant masses.
Seriously: This is one death. Tragic as it is, influenza 2009 H1N1 still has a kill ratio that's about the same as any other strain of influenza. There really isn't any reason to panic. Take rational, common-sense precautions like washing your hands before eating: yes. Panic: no.
Think about it: Is it ever a good idea to panic?
More, at "SWINE FLU: NOVARTIS, VACCINE AVAILABLE BY FALL," AGI News On (June 12, 2009). List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:
CNN (June 12, 2009)
"A person with swine flu died in Scotland on Sunday, the government announced, marking the first known death of a swine flu patient outside of the Americas, according to the latest World Health Organization information.
" Jacqueline Fleming, 38, had been "ill in hospital for a number of weeks," her family said in a statement Monday.
" 'Our whole family is absolutely devastated and we are doing everything we can to support Jacqueline's sons and her partner,' the statement said.
"She had 'underlying health conditions,' the Scottish government said, without elaborating.
" 'We are now waiting for the results of the death certificate to determine the cause of death,' the statement said.
"A total of 145 people had died from the H1N1 virus, as swine flu is officially known, as of Friday, according to the WHO...."
The article is a pretty good overview of what happened in the U.K. After the inconsistencies in reports on assistant principle Mitchell Weiner's "pre-existing medical conditions," I'm taking the Scottish Government's "underlying health conditions" statement with a grain of salt.
It's not that I think there's some vast conspiracy: but I do think that some officials are convinced that what they regard as the ignorant masses will panic if they aren't lied to. I don't think that's a good idea, but then I'm part of the ignorant masses.
Seriously: This is one death. Tragic as it is, influenza 2009 H1N1 still has a kill ratio that's about the same as any other strain of influenza. There really isn't any reason to panic. Take rational, common-sense precautions like washing your hands before eating: yes. Panic: no.
Think about it: Is it ever a good idea to panic?
More, at "SWINE FLU: NOVARTIS, VACCINE AVAILABLE BY FALL," AGI News On (June 12, 2009). List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:
Friday, June 12, 2009
Swine Flu / 2009 H1N1 Flu: Vaccine Ready for Testing
"Novartis says produces first batch of H1N1 vaccine"
The Associated Press (April 12, 2009)
"Swiss pharmaceuticals company Novartis AG said Friday it has successfully produced a first batch of swine flu vaccine weeks ahead of expectations.
"The vaccine was made in cells, rather than grown in eggs as is usually the case with vaccines, the company said...."
The article also says that this first batch is earmarked for "...for pre-clinical evaluation and testing. It is also being considered for clinical trials,..." so it won't be available right now. The company says its vaccine will be available in September.
Assuming that there aren't any hitches in testing, Novartis says that the plant in Marburg, Germany, where this batch was produced could (potentially) produce millions of doses a week. And, there's a plant being built in North Carolina.
Good news. I'm curious about the detail that this vaccine is grown in cells, rather than eggs. Maybe we'll be reading more, later, as Novartis releases more information.
More, at "SWINE FLU: NOVARTIS, VACCINE AVAILABLE BY FALL," AGI News On (June 12, 2009). List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:
The Associated Press (April 12, 2009)
"Swiss pharmaceuticals company Novartis AG said Friday it has successfully produced a first batch of swine flu vaccine weeks ahead of expectations.
"The vaccine was made in cells, rather than grown in eggs as is usually the case with vaccines, the company said...."
The article also says that this first batch is earmarked for "...for pre-clinical evaluation and testing. It is also being considered for clinical trials,..." so it won't be available right now. The company says its vaccine will be available in September.
Assuming that there aren't any hitches in testing, Novartis says that the plant in Marburg, Germany, where this batch was produced could (potentially) produce millions of doses a week. And, there's a plant being built in North Carolina.
Good news. I'm curious about the detail that this vaccine is grown in cells, rather than eggs. Maybe we'll be reading more, later, as Novartis releases more information.
More, at "SWINE FLU: NOVARTIS, VACCINE AVAILABLE BY FALL," AGI News On (June 12, 2009). List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Swine Flu / 2009 H1N1 flu Now a Phase 6 Pandemic: First in 40 Years
"World 'must be watchful' of A/H1N1 flu, says UN chief"
Xinhua via philstar.com (June 12, 2009) (about the date: I know - it's that International Dateline thing)
"UN Secretary-general Ban Ki- moon said here yesterday that the world 'must be watchful' of A/ H1N1 flu, but 'it is not in itself a cause for alarm.'
"The UN chief made the statement at his monthly press conference after the World Health Organization (WHO) yesterday declared the first influenza pandemic in four decades. The pandemic is caused by the new A/H1N1 flu virus...."
That A/H1N1 flu virus is better known as "swine flu." WHO and other agencies have been trying to get the message across that it's now spread from human to human. And, is more of a human/avian/swine flu mutant hybrid.
There's good news, still: so far, the A/H1N1 virus hasn't repeated the one-in-14 kill ratio it had at first.
"Swine flu 'not stoppable,' World Health Organization says"
CNN (June 11, 2009)
"The World Health Organization raised the swine flu alert Thursday to its highest level, saying the H1N1 virus has spread to enough countries to be considered a global pandemic.
"Increasing the alert to Phase 6 does not mean that the disease is deadlier or more dangerous than before, just that it has spread to more countries, the WHO said.
" 'This is an important and challenging day for all of us,' WHO Director General Margaret Chan said in a briefing with reporters. 'We are moving into the early days of the first flu pandemic of the 21st century.'
"The last previous pandemic occurred in 1968.
"As of Thursday, the virus had spread to 74 countries, the health agency said. There were 28,774 confirmed cases and 144 deaths...."
Kudos to CNN for reporting: "...Increasing the alert to Phase 6 does not mean that the disease is deadlier or more dangerous than before, just that it has spread to more countries, the WHO said...." (CNN) [emphasis mine]
On the other hand, that "Swine flu 'not stoppable,' World Health Organization says" headline reminded me of the "bullets won't stop them!" sort of line from cheap monster movies of the fifties
The headline's accurate, though: "...'Further spread is considered inevitable,' Chan said at a news conference at WHO headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland. 'The scientific criteria for an influenza pandemic have been met.'..." (CNN)
"Flu pandemic alert raised to phase 6"
World Health Organization (WHO) (June 11, 2009)
"On the basis of available evidence and expert assessments of the evidence, the scientific criteria for an influenza pandemic have been met. The Director-General of WHO has therefore decided to raise the level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 5 to phase 6."
In the news and reports:
Xinhua via philstar.com (June 12, 2009) (about the date: I know - it's that International Dateline thing)
"UN Secretary-general Ban Ki- moon said here yesterday that the world 'must be watchful' of A/ H1N1 flu, but 'it is not in itself a cause for alarm.'
"The UN chief made the statement at his monthly press conference after the World Health Organization (WHO) yesterday declared the first influenza pandemic in four decades. The pandemic is caused by the new A/H1N1 flu virus...."
That A/H1N1 flu virus is better known as "swine flu." WHO and other agencies have been trying to get the message across that it's now spread from human to human. And, is more of a human/avian/swine flu mutant hybrid.
There's good news, still: so far, the A/H1N1 virus hasn't repeated the one-in-14 kill ratio it had at first.
"Swine flu 'not stoppable,' World Health Organization says"
CNN (June 11, 2009)
"The World Health Organization raised the swine flu alert Thursday to its highest level, saying the H1N1 virus has spread to enough countries to be considered a global pandemic.
"Increasing the alert to Phase 6 does not mean that the disease is deadlier or more dangerous than before, just that it has spread to more countries, the WHO said.
" 'This is an important and challenging day for all of us,' WHO Director General Margaret Chan said in a briefing with reporters. 'We are moving into the early days of the first flu pandemic of the 21st century.'
"The last previous pandemic occurred in 1968.
"As of Thursday, the virus had spread to 74 countries, the health agency said. There were 28,774 confirmed cases and 144 deaths...."
Kudos to CNN for reporting: "...Increasing the alert to Phase 6 does not mean that the disease is deadlier or more dangerous than before, just that it has spread to more countries, the WHO said...." (CNN) [emphasis mine]
On the other hand, that "Swine flu 'not stoppable,' World Health Organization says" headline reminded me of the "bullets won't stop them!" sort of line from cheap monster movies of the fifties
The headline's accurate, though: "...'Further spread is considered inevitable,' Chan said at a news conference at WHO headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland. 'The scientific criteria for an influenza pandemic have been met.'..." (CNN)
"Flu pandemic alert raised to phase 6"
World Health Organization (WHO) (June 11, 2009)
"On the basis of available evidence and expert assessments of the evidence, the scientific criteria for an influenza pandemic have been met. The Director-General of WHO has therefore decided to raise the level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 5 to phase 6."
Influenza A H1/N1 a Phase 6 Pandemic - What to Do?
Bottom Line seems to be: don't be stupid, and don't panic. Simple enough. Influenza of any sort is not something a person would reasonably want to have, and there are common-sense ways to reduce the risk of catching it. There's a pretty good resource list in this blog's "Swine Flu 2009."In the news and reports:
- "World 'must be watchful' of A/H1N1 flu, says UN chief"
Xinhua via philstar.com (June 12, 2009) - "Swine flu 'not stoppable,' World Health Organization says"
CNN (June 11, 2009) - "Flu pandemic alert raised to phase 6"
World Health Organization (WHO) (June 11, 2009)
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Swine Flue in New York City: Assistant Principal Wiener's Dead
"New York principal's death linked to flu virus, hospital says"
CNN (May 17, 2009)
"An New York middle school assistant principal who was hospitalized with the H1N1 virus, commonly known as swine flu, died Sunday apparently from flu complications, a hospital spokesman said.
"Mitchell Weiner, 55, assistant principal at Intermediate School 238 in Queens, died at 6:17 p.m. Sunday, Flushing Hospital spokesman Andrew Rubin said.
" 'We believe he had complications of the swine flu,' Rubin told CNN Radio, adding that once Weiner was admitted to the hospital, he was listed in critical condition. However, he wouldn't say whether Rubin had any pre-existing medical conditions...."
Things can happen fast, where influenza A(H1N1) is involved. The same article started this way, about an hour ago:
"Assistant principal dies after being hospitalized with H1N1 virus"
CNN (May 17, 2009)
"A New York middle school assistant principal who was hospitalized with the H1N1 virus died Sunday, a hospital spokesman said, though he stopped short of saying whether the flu strain contributed to the man's death...."
My guess is that Flushing Hospital wants to get the facts straight, before talking to reporters. Which, I think, makes good sense. I have respect for someone who doesn't have information, realizes it, and acknowledges the fact. People who mistake assumptions or rumor for facts, not so much.
Meanwhile, Mayor Bloomberg has talked to reporters again: " 'It seems to be spreading faster, this strain,' Mayor Bloomberg told reporters Sunday night as the city's Health Department urged New Yorkers to remain vigilant." (New York Daily News)
What Mayor Bloomberg said about influenza A(H1N1) spreading more rapidly than a normal flu was backed up by a health official. The official had a few more things to say, too:
" 'It is entirely possible that in the coming days there will be people with severe illness from flu, particularly among people who have underlying health problems,' Health Commissioner Thomas Frieden said.
" 'If you have underlying health conditions such as diabetes, emphysema and asthma and have been exposed to someone with flu, see your doctor,' he said.
" 'The H1N1 virus appears to be spreading more rapidly at this time. Only time will tell how far, wide and long it will spread.'..." (New York Daily News)
Mentioning "underlying health conditions" was a sensible thing to do. Other Americans who have died from influenza A(H1N1) have had medical conditions that left them more vulnerable to influenza of any sort.
"Only time will tell..." is also good sense. Influenza A(H1N1) is a new disease. From what little I know about the study of novel diseases, it hasn't been around long enough for a clear, solid, understanding of it to be established.
Even before New York City's mayor talked about pre-existing conditions that Mr. Wiener may not have had, there was talk about a conspiracy concerning influenza A(H1N1). I got the impression that They were whipping up hysteria in order to declare martial law.
Like most conspiracy theories, it makes a good story.
Mayor Bloomberg's citing medical conditions that Mr. Wiener may not have had doesn't, I think, help keep conspiracy theories on the sidelines.
The CDC and WHO have, to date, done what I regard as a good, professional, job of making fairly regular, matter-of-fact, public reports on what they know. The Minnesota Department of Health gave a quite plausible reason for cutting off the flow of information they were releasing. I'm not entirely happy about being kept in the dark, but the official explanation isn't contrary to reason or known facts.
An official who, like Mayor Bloomberg, makes a statement which the victim's family quickly denies and which has not yet been confirmed by medical professionals, runs the risk of undermining public confidence.
If Mr Wiener turns out to have had nothing more that gout before coming down with influenza A(H1N1) and dying, we'll have an awkward situation. On the one hand, the mayor of a major American city will have said that influenza A(H1N1) wasn't what killed him: it was diabetes, or something like that. On the other hand, there will be a dead body that didn't have 'something like that' before it stopped breathing.
That lack of fit between reality and pronouncements by officials leaves room for the more imaginative and suspicious among us to weave tales of conspiracy and intrigue.
And, in my opinion, if enough people become convinced that what officials say can't be trusted - while a new, fast-spreading, lethal, virus is on the loose - we'll have serious trouble.
In the news:
CNN (May 17, 2009)
"An New York middle school assistant principal who was hospitalized with the H1N1 virus, commonly known as swine flu, died Sunday apparently from flu complications, a hospital spokesman said.
"Mitchell Weiner, 55, assistant principal at Intermediate School 238 in Queens, died at 6:17 p.m. Sunday, Flushing Hospital spokesman Andrew Rubin said.
" 'We believe he had complications of the swine flu,' Rubin told CNN Radio, adding that once Weiner was admitted to the hospital, he was listed in critical condition. However, he wouldn't say whether Rubin had any pre-existing medical conditions...."
Things can happen fast, where influenza A(H1N1) is involved. The same article started this way, about an hour ago:
"Assistant principal dies after being hospitalized with H1N1 virus"
CNN (May 17, 2009)
"A New York middle school assistant principal who was hospitalized with the H1N1 virus died Sunday, a hospital spokesman said, though he stopped short of saying whether the flu strain contributed to the man's death...."
Don't Know the Facts? That's Okay
Kudos to Flushing Hospital's Andrew Rubin, for not commenting on assistant Principal Weiner's purported pre-existing medical conditions. New York City's mayor Bloomberg's claim that Mitchell Wiener had diabetes was disputed by Wiener's family - and may not be true.My guess is that Flushing Hospital wants to get the facts straight, before talking to reporters. Which, I think, makes good sense. I have respect for someone who doesn't have information, realizes it, and acknowledges the fact. People who mistake assumptions or rumor for facts, not so much.
Meanwhile, Mayor Bloomberg has talked to reporters again: " 'It seems to be spreading faster, this strain,' Mayor Bloomberg told reporters Sunday night as the city's Health Department urged New Yorkers to remain vigilant." (New York Daily News)
What Mayor Bloomberg said about influenza A(H1N1) spreading more rapidly than a normal flu was backed up by a health official. The official had a few more things to say, too:
" 'It is entirely possible that in the coming days there will be people with severe illness from flu, particularly among people who have underlying health problems,' Health Commissioner Thomas Frieden said.
" 'If you have underlying health conditions such as diabetes, emphysema and asthma and have been exposed to someone with flu, see your doctor,' he said.
" 'The H1N1 virus appears to be spreading more rapidly at this time. Only time will tell how far, wide and long it will spread.'..." (New York Daily News)
Mentioning "underlying health conditions" was a sensible thing to do. Other Americans who have died from influenza A(H1N1) have had medical conditions that left them more vulnerable to influenza of any sort.
"Only time will tell..." is also good sense. Influenza A(H1N1) is a new disease. From what little I know about the study of novel diseases, it hasn't been around long enough for a clear, solid, understanding of it to be established.
Good Sense, Hasty Statements, and Conspiracy Theories
Influenza A(H1N1), this year's new human / avian / swine flu, is bad enough by itself. It may not be any worse than ordinary influenza - it killed one out of every 14 infected people in Mexico. But, even now it seems to be spreading faster than ordinary influenza.Even before New York City's mayor talked about pre-existing conditions that Mr. Wiener may not have had, there was talk about a conspiracy concerning influenza A(H1N1). I got the impression that They were whipping up hysteria in order to declare martial law.
Like most conspiracy theories, it makes a good story.
Mayor Bloomberg's citing medical conditions that Mr. Wiener may not have had doesn't, I think, help keep conspiracy theories on the sidelines.
The CDC and WHO have, to date, done what I regard as a good, professional, job of making fairly regular, matter-of-fact, public reports on what they know. The Minnesota Department of Health gave a quite plausible reason for cutting off the flow of information they were releasing. I'm not entirely happy about being kept in the dark, but the official explanation isn't contrary to reason or known facts.
An official who, like Mayor Bloomberg, makes a statement which the victim's family quickly denies and which has not yet been confirmed by medical professionals, runs the risk of undermining public confidence.
If Mr Wiener turns out to have had nothing more that gout before coming down with influenza A(H1N1) and dying, we'll have an awkward situation. On the one hand, the mayor of a major American city will have said that influenza A(H1N1) wasn't what killed him: it was diabetes, or something like that. On the other hand, there will be a dead body that didn't have 'something like that' before it stopped breathing.
That lack of fit between reality and pronouncements by officials leaves room for the more imaginative and suspicious among us to weave tales of conspiracy and intrigue.
And, in my opinion, if enough people become convinced that what officials say can't be trusted - while a new, fast-spreading, lethal, virus is on the loose - we'll have serious trouble.
In the news:
- "H1N1 Virus claims first life in NY"
Capital 9 News (May 17, 2009) - "New York principal's death linked to flu virus, hospital says"
CNN (May 17, 2009) - "Assistant principal Mitchell Wiener dies from complications of swine flu"
New York Daily News (May 17, 2009) - "Swine flu claims Queens assistant principal"
newsday.com (May 17, 2009) - "Three NYC schools closing for week over H1N1 flu"
CNN (May 14, 2009)
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Swine Flu: Beware Hastily-Called Press Conferences
I don't blame the mayor of New York City for wanting to get a statement out as soon as possible. On the other hand, what happened to New York City's Mr. Bloomberg shows how it's a good idea to do a little research, then start talking.
"...At a hastily called news conference on Thursday night, Mr. Bloomberg said that Mr. Wiener appeared to have had some health problems that could have made him more susceptible to the virus, and colleagues and friends of the educator said said he had diabetes and sometimes walked with a cane.
"But on Friday morning, the younger Mr. Wiener told The A.P. that his father's only pre-existing condition was 'gout, which is unrelated to complications he’s experienced now.'..." (The New York Times)
New York City now has six closed schools, and cleanup crews washing them down. The Mr. Wiener who New York's mayor was talking about is an assistant principle, Mitch Wiener.
Wiener's son, Adam, "...said his father is now suffering from kidney failure, pneumonia, dehydration and a lung infection." Which isn't gout. Doesn't have much to do with gout, either: although all of the above are disorders that people can suffer from.
"...'I don't know where people got that,' Adam Wiener, 23, said Friday morning as he prepared to return to the hospital where his mother and one brother were holding a vigil.
"Adam Wiener said his father had been sick since at least last weekend with flu-like symptoms 'but we didn't think anything of it.' Then early Wednesday, he said, the family called 911 after his father began 'hallucinating and wasn't coherent.'..." (FOXNews (May 15, 2009))
If the elder Wiener's gout interfered with his walking enough to warrant a using a cane now and again, I think I can see where the confusion may have started. I've used a cane since the mid-seventies, something that most people don't seem to notice.
Once or twice, though, I've had an interesting look at how others perceive the world. Like the time a couple of college students assumed I was blind. Think about it: Blind people use canes; This fellow uses a cane; Therefore, this fellow must be blind. Sure: the cane used by some people to pinch-hit for eyesight is a standardized white color, and my walking prop is plain wood; but not everyone knows that.
In the case of Mr. Wiener, if he'd ever been seen using a cane, it might be "obvious" that he had diabetes - to someone for whom that was what canes were associated with.
And, I think that mayors, and even CDC and WHO officials, may not know everything there is to know about influenza A(H1N1).
Happily, the health agency officials seem to be aware of that: judging from the very cautious statements they've made.
In the news:
"...At a hastily called news conference on Thursday night, Mr. Bloomberg said that Mr. Wiener appeared to have had some health problems that could have made him more susceptible to the virus, and colleagues and friends of the educator said said he had diabetes and sometimes walked with a cane.
"But on Friday morning, the younger Mr. Wiener told The A.P. that his father's only pre-existing condition was 'gout, which is unrelated to complications he’s experienced now.'..." (The New York Times)
New York City now has six closed schools, and cleanup crews washing them down. The Mr. Wiener who New York's mayor was talking about is an assistant principle, Mitch Wiener.
Wiener's son, Adam, "...said his father is now suffering from kidney failure, pneumonia, dehydration and a lung infection." Which isn't gout. Doesn't have much to do with gout, either: although all of the above are disorders that people can suffer from.
"...'I don't know where people got that,' Adam Wiener, 23, said Friday morning as he prepared to return to the hospital where his mother and one brother were holding a vigil.
"Adam Wiener said his father had been sick since at least last weekend with flu-like symptoms 'but we didn't think anything of it.' Then early Wednesday, he said, the family called 911 after his father began 'hallucinating and wasn't coherent.'..." (FOXNews (May 15, 2009))
If the elder Wiener's gout interfered with his walking enough to warrant a using a cane now and again, I think I can see where the confusion may have started. I've used a cane since the mid-seventies, something that most people don't seem to notice.
Once or twice, though, I've had an interesting look at how others perceive the world. Like the time a couple of college students assumed I was blind. Think about it: Blind people use canes; This fellow uses a cane; Therefore, this fellow must be blind. Sure: the cane used by some people to pinch-hit for eyesight is a standardized white color, and my walking prop is plain wood; but not everyone knows that.
In the case of Mr. Wiener, if he'd ever been seen using a cane, it might be "obvious" that he had diabetes - to someone for whom that was what canes were associated with.
Any Illness I Don't Have is Minor
I think that Mr. Wiener's experience is an important reminder. Influenza A(H1N1), swine flu, or whatever this year's new disease is called, may be no more serious than influenza. But, influenza can be a serious disease.And, I think that mayors, and even CDC and WHO officials, may not know everything there is to know about influenza A(H1N1).
Happily, the health agency officials seem to be aware of that: judging from the very cautious statements they've made.
In the news:
- "2 More Die From Swine Flu, Hundreds Sent Home Sick "
FOXNews (May 15, 2009) - "Crews Scrub Queens Schools Hit by Flu"
The New York Times (May 15, 2009) - "Sons: NYC asst. principal with swine flu very ill"
The Associated Press (May 15, 2009)
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Swine Flu / Influenza A(H1N1) Might, Maybe, be a Lab Mistake
First, Adrian Gibbs isn't a crackpot. He's one of the scientists whose research led to development of Roche Holding AG's Tamiflu drug.
Second, he's not 'sounding the alarm,' like the Wise Old Scientist in some fifties flick.
What's happened is that Gibbs has studied the DNA of this year's influenza A(H1N1) virus, and thinks he's may know where it came from, in general terms.
As he put it, talking about influenza A(H1N1), " 'One of the simplest explanations is that it's a laboratory escape,' Gibbs said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today. But there are lots of others.' "
In more practical terms, finding out more about influenza A(H1N1) should help researchers come up with a workable vaccine. And, if it did happen as a result of a lab mistake, there's a chance that either more effective techniques will be developed - or researchers will learn that following protocol really does matter.
Adrian Gibbs again:
"...'The sooner we get to grips with where it's come from, the safer things might become,' Gibbs said by phone from Canberra yesterday. 'It could be a mistake' that occurred at a vaccine production facility or the virus could have jumped from a pig to another mammal or a bird before reaching humans, he said...."
The CDC got a copy, and has an opinion, too. " 'We are interested in the origins of this new influenza virus,' [director of the CDC's influenza division Nancy] Cox said. 'But contrary to what the author has found, when we do the comparisons that are most relevant, there is no evidence that this virus was derived by passage in eggs.' " Note: She didn't say that they'd found the virus hadn't come from a strain passing through eggs - but that there wasn't evidence for that conclusion.
And, if I added some dark conspiracy where 'They' were the CIA, the United Nations, Big Tobacco, or shape-shifting space alien lizard people, I'd have a potential best-seller, a cult following, or both.
I may not have what it takes to put together a Michael Crichton-style epic. And, I wouldn't want to stretch facts to fit a conspiracy theory. Michael Crichton, by the way, writes a remarkably good sort of near-future speculative fiction: not cult fodder.
So, here goes:
Big Tobacco, which is really run by space aliens who control the CIA and the United Nations, and shot down Buddy Holly's airplane, is behind this year's swine flu.
Their nefarious scheme was to infect all humanity with a virus that would make us crave tobacco from birth, and vote against regulations involving tobacco products.
They might have succeeded, if not for the heroic sacrifice of Mexican slave laborers, who broke the space alien's eggs and destroyed the secret underground laboratory. They were the first victims of swine flu, but died knowing that they had thwarted the shape-shifting lizard-people's plans.
In case I haven't made this clear: Those last three paragraphs are fiction. Totally bogus. Not true. 100% grade-A #1 hooey.
Made a pretty good story, though.
And, I hope that the 'there's no evidence' remark from the CDC is literally accurate: and made in an effort to avoid the appearance of fearmongering. I don't envy people who are in that sort of position.
(All quotes are from Bloomberg)
In the news:
Second, he's not 'sounding the alarm,' like the Wise Old Scientist in some fifties flick.
What's happened is that Gibbs has studied the DNA of this year's influenza A(H1N1) virus, and thinks he's may know where it came from, in general terms.
As he put it, talking about influenza A(H1N1), " 'One of the simplest explanations is that it's a laboratory escape,' Gibbs said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today. But there are lots of others.' "
Let's Say Influenza A(H1N1) is Artificial - So What?
Aside from spawning a mess of conspiracy theories, lawyers are going to have a field day if this year's swine flu was a laboratory mistake.In more practical terms, finding out more about influenza A(H1N1) should help researchers come up with a workable vaccine. And, if it did happen as a result of a lab mistake, there's a chance that either more effective techniques will be developed - or researchers will learn that following protocol really does matter.
Adrian Gibbs again:
"...'The sooner we get to grips with where it's come from, the safer things might become,' Gibbs said by phone from Canberra yesterday. 'It could be a mistake' that occurred at a vaccine production facility or the virus could have jumped from a pig to another mammal or a bird before reaching humans, he said...."
WHO Has Gibb's Research Paper, So Does the CDC
People with the World Health Organization are studying Gibb's paper. They got a pre-publication copy. That agency seems to be staying carefully non-committal: " 'You really want a very sober assessment' of the science behind the claim, [WHO assistant director-general of health security and environment Keiji] Fukuda said May 11 at the WHO's Geneva headquarters...."The CDC got a copy, and has an opinion, too. " 'We are interested in the origins of this new influenza virus,' [director of the CDC's influenza division Nancy] Cox said. 'But contrary to what the author has found, when we do the comparisons that are most relevant, there is no evidence that this virus was derived by passage in eggs.' " Note: She didn't say that they'd found the virus hadn't come from a strain passing through eggs - but that there wasn't evidence for that conclusion.
Swine Flu, Lizard People, and the Frustration of Sticking to Facts
This is one of those times when I'd like to be able to take off the brakes, and let my imagination run wild. What's in the news today has the makings of a really exciting story:- Senior scientist reveals that he thinks swine flu came from a laboratory experiment gone wrong (sounds dramatic, doesn't it?) CDC, WHO make carefully-worded statements
- All while a nascent pandemic looms
And, if I added some dark conspiracy where 'They' were the CIA, the United Nations, Big Tobacco, or shape-shifting space alien lizard people, I'd have a potential best-seller, a cult following, or both.
I may not have what it takes to put together a Michael Crichton-style epic. And, I wouldn't want to stretch facts to fit a conspiracy theory. Michael Crichton, by the way, writes a remarkably good sort of near-future speculative fiction: not cult fodder.
Oh, Maybe Just This Once
Last year I 'proved' that Elvis was a space alien whose tragic death prompted an attempt to implicate a USDA research facility. ("Montauk Monster: Publicity Stunt by Space Aliens, Implicating USDA's Plum Island?" (July 30, 2008)) I don't believe it, but it made a good story.So, here goes:
Big Tobacco, which is really run by space aliens who control the CIA and the United Nations, and shot down Buddy Holly's airplane, is behind this year's swine flu.
Their nefarious scheme was to infect all humanity with a virus that would make us crave tobacco from birth, and vote against regulations involving tobacco products.
They might have succeeded, if not for the heroic sacrifice of Mexican slave laborers, who broke the space alien's eggs and destroyed the secret underground laboratory. They were the first victims of swine flu, but died knowing that they had thwarted the shape-shifting lizard-people's plans.
In case I haven't made this clear: Those last three paragraphs are fiction. Totally bogus. Not true. 100% grade-A #1 hooey.
Made a pretty good story, though.
Seriously? Influenza A(H1N1) May or May Not be a Big Problem
But, people who run outfits like CDC and WHO don't seem willing to 'think positive,' and assume that this year's avian / human / swine flu has done its worst. I'm not at all upset that they're keeping an eye on the bug.And, I hope that the 'there's no evidence' remark from the CDC is literally accurate: and made in an effort to avoid the appearance of fearmongering. I don't envy people who are in that sort of position.
(All quotes are from Bloomberg)
In the news:
- "Swine Flu May Be Human Error; WHO Investigates Claim (Update1)"
Bloomberg (May 13, 2009) - "WHO Avoids Assigning Severity Scale to H1N1 Flu"
MedscapeToday (May 13, 2009)
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Influenza A(H1N1) / Swine flu: 5,251 cases; 2,600 in America; 28 in Minnesota
At least, those are the numbers available to the public.
As of May 10, 2009, two days ago, there were, officially, 28 confirmed cases of H1N1 novel influenza / influenza A(H1N1) / new swine flu in Minnesota. Above the table that showed where the confirmed cases were, the Minnesota Department of Health wrote:
"The listed regions only represent areas where people have been tested and had positive results. There are many areas that we think have novel influenza H1N1 circulating but we have not done extensive testing. MDH is now focusing testing on severe cases. Therefore we will not identify most cases of novel influenza H1N1, particularly those with mild illness." (MDH)
That's consistent with a May 8, 2009, press release that said, in part:
"Effective immediately, MDH will no longer be posting data for 'specimens already tested by MDH' and 'specimens that still need to be tested'.
"The number of lab specimens in these two categories has always been highly fluid, and subject to change at least hourly. Anything posted on our Web site therefore becomes outdated very quickly...."
"...In addition, we are now only testing specimens for patients who have been hospitalized, so the ability to track influenza cases using this information will be even more limited in the future." (MDH)
That makes sense: it takes time to prepare and post information, and the Minnesota Department of Health has other things to do. I have to assume that the information updates have been suspended because there's no need for the public to know what's going on.
I'm old enough to remember the 'good old days,' when doctors routinely lied to patients about critical information - for the good of the patient, of course. 'No sense letting the mere layman fret,' and all that.
Times have changed. Information that's available suggests that the new swine flu may be no more serious than the 1957 pandemic. I'll be getting to that.
Hog farming is a significant part of Minnesota's economy, and we're no fools. Humans can catch diseases from pigs. But, at least as importantly, pigs can catch diseases from humans. And that's something no pig farmer wants.
Sick pigs are just about worthless.
So, we're protecting our hogs. Some places, people now have to shower before seeing pigs in this state. That's hog farmers, reporters: everybody. (CNN)
It's not all that new an idea, and sensible precautions aren't limited to hogs. Turkey barns east of town have signs up, warning people to stay away.
It's not protecting us from the livestock: it's protecting the livestock from us.
Okay: Minnesota reported 28 cases, than said they wouldn't be reporting any more. The CDC, about the same time, says there are seven cases in Minnesota.
Seven simply does not equal 28. I don't know what's going on - the CDC and Minnesota might have different definitions about what they're counting, or the CDC data could be a little out of date.
Or, maybe we should multiply every number the CDC reports by four.
Probably not: I certainly hope we're not being 'protected' by being kept in the dark. I could be wrong, but I think people were able to deal with the real world back in the fifties, and that we're able to deal with reality now.
I certainly hope that the people in charge think so, too.
With the run-of-the-mill seasonal flu, if you're in contact with someone who's sick, you have a 5% to 15% chance of getting the disease yourself - roughly one-in-eight odds. With influenza A(H1N1), the chances of your getting the new disease are 22% to 33%. That's roughly one-in-four or one-in-three odds. (WHO, via Bloomberg)
That's changed, since the virus left Mexico, but the World Health organization doesn't know why. The influenza viruses mutate easily, so that could be part of the explanation: or something else could be going on.
The H5N1 avian influenza virus is "firmly established" in poultry in parts of the world. Right now it isn't much of a problem, because humans don't get infected easily. But, if many people around the infected birds got influenza A(H1N1), and the new virus got inside the birds: we don't know what would happen. (WHO)
When something like this new influenza A(H1N1) virus, all they have to go by is the data from a few thousand cases, and past pandemics.
I'm sure that the people running WHO, the CDC, and Minnesota's Department of Health, would like to be absolutely, positively, sure of exactly what's going to happen next.
They don't.
What they do know is what's happened before. WHO pointed out that the 1957 pandemic started with a mild wave, then came back in a more lethal form. Same thing happened in 1918. (WHO)
This influenza A(H1N1) may be different: Maybe it won't kill many more people, and we can forget all about it. On the other hand, maybe it won't. Around 2,000,000 people died in the 1957 pandemic: and there are more people today.
I know: people die from ordinary influenza. Around 250,000 to 500,000 each year. (WHO, via Bloomberg)
And, right now, influenza A(H1N1) doesn't seem likely to do more damage than that.
Good news, as far as it goes.
I think it's probably a good idea, though, to assume that the people running health agencies around the world are trying to keep people from dropping dead in wholesale lots. Conspiracy theories about plots to take over the world are great in the movies: but that's entertainment.
Here in the real world, people can get sick and die. If being a bit more careful about washing hands can keep you alive, it's probably worth it.
Just a thought.
In the news:
As of May 10, 2009, two days ago, there were, officially, 28 confirmed cases of H1N1 novel influenza / influenza A(H1N1) / new swine flu in Minnesota. Above the table that showed where the confirmed cases were, the Minnesota Department of Health wrote:
"The listed regions only represent areas where people have been tested and had positive results. There are many areas that we think have novel influenza H1N1 circulating but we have not done extensive testing. MDH is now focusing testing on severe cases. Therefore we will not identify most cases of novel influenza H1N1, particularly those with mild illness." (MDH)
That's consistent with a May 8, 2009, press release that said, in part:
"Effective immediately, MDH will no longer be posting data for 'specimens already tested by MDH' and 'specimens that still need to be tested'.
"The number of lab specimens in these two categories has always been highly fluid, and subject to change at least hourly. Anything posted on our Web site therefore becomes outdated very quickly...."
"...In addition, we are now only testing specimens for patients who have been hospitalized, so the ability to track influenza cases using this information will be even more limited in the future." (MDH)
That makes sense: it takes time to prepare and post information, and the Minnesota Department of Health has other things to do. I have to assume that the information updates have been suspended because there's no need for the public to know what's going on.
I'm old enough to remember the 'good old days,' when doctors routinely lied to patients about critical information - for the good of the patient, of course. 'No sense letting the mere layman fret,' and all that.
Times have changed. Information that's available suggests that the new swine flu may be no more serious than the 1957 pandemic. I'll be getting to that.
Hogs May be the Safest Minnesotans
As far as catching 'swine flue,' at any rate.Hog farming is a significant part of Minnesota's economy, and we're no fools. Humans can catch diseases from pigs. But, at least as importantly, pigs can catch diseases from humans. And that's something no pig farmer wants.
Sick pigs are just about worthless.
So, we're protecting our hogs. Some places, people now have to shower before seeing pigs in this state. That's hog farmers, reporters: everybody. (CNN)
It's not all that new an idea, and sensible precautions aren't limited to hogs. Turkey barns east of town have signs up, warning people to stay away.
It's not protecting us from the livestock: it's protecting the livestock from us.
CDC Still Updating Influenza A(H1N1) Statistics
As of yesterday, America had 2,600 confirmed cases of swine flu, and three deaths. (CDC) I'm taking that as an officially estimated approximate number. The list shows seven cases in Minnesota.Okay: Minnesota reported 28 cases, than said they wouldn't be reporting any more. The CDC, about the same time, says there are seven cases in Minnesota.
Seven simply does not equal 28. I don't know what's going on - the CDC and Minnesota might have different definitions about what they're counting, or the CDC data could be a little out of date.
Or, maybe we should multiply every number the CDC reports by four.
Probably not: I certainly hope we're not being 'protected' by being kept in the dark. I could be wrong, but I think people were able to deal with the real world back in the fifties, and that we're able to deal with reality now.
I certainly hope that the people in charge think so, too.
Influenza A(H1N1): New Swine Flu More Contagious
This year's new avian / human / swine flu, influenza A(H1N1), is nowhere near as lethal as it was in Mexico. I can't say that I'm disappointed.New Influenza A(H1N1): More Contagious
On the other hand, this year's swine flu / influenza A(H1N1) is highly contagious, compared to your everyday flu.With the run-of-the-mill seasonal flu, if you're in contact with someone who's sick, you have a 5% to 15% chance of getting the disease yourself - roughly one-in-eight odds. With influenza A(H1N1), the chances of your getting the new disease are 22% to 33%. That's roughly one-in-four or one-in-three odds. (WHO, via Bloomberg)
Influenza A(H1N1): a Killer in Mexico, Not So Much Elsewhere
The death rate for people with influenza A(H1N1) in Mexico was unusually high. And, the people killed were otherwise fairly healthy.That's changed, since the virus left Mexico, but the World Health organization doesn't know why. The influenza viruses mutate easily, so that could be part of the explanation: or something else could be going on.
Influenza A(H1N1) and Poultry: Another Unknown
One more thing: Influenza A(H1N1) is a virus that already has DNA from avian, swine, and human flu species.The H5N1 avian influenza virus is "firmly established" in poultry in parts of the world. Right now it isn't much of a problem, because humans don't get infected easily. But, if many people around the infected birds got influenza A(H1N1), and the new virus got inside the birds: we don't know what would happen. (WHO)
Let's Not be Upset With Health Agencies
People who are professionally involved with public health are in an awkward position. They're dealing with diseases that, in some cases, mutate rapidly. On top of that, people aren't all alike, and may get very sick - or not sick at all - when exposed to a new disease.When something like this new influenza A(H1N1) virus, all they have to go by is the data from a few thousand cases, and past pandemics.
I'm sure that the people running WHO, the CDC, and Minnesota's Department of Health, would like to be absolutely, positively, sure of exactly what's going to happen next.
They don't.
What they do know is what's happened before. WHO pointed out that the 1957 pandemic started with a mild wave, then came back in a more lethal form. Same thing happened in 1918. (WHO)
This influenza A(H1N1) may be different: Maybe it won't kill many more people, and we can forget all about it. On the other hand, maybe it won't. Around 2,000,000 people died in the 1957 pandemic: and there are more people today.
I know: people die from ordinary influenza. Around 250,000 to 500,000 each year. (WHO, via Bloomberg)
And, right now, influenza A(H1N1) doesn't seem likely to do more damage than that.
Good news, as far as it goes.
I think it's probably a good idea, though, to assume that the people running health agencies around the world are trying to keep people from dropping dead in wholesale lots. Conspiracy theories about plots to take over the world are great in the movies: but that's entertainment.
Here in the real world, people can get sick and die. If being a bit more careful about washing hands can keep you alive, it's probably worth it.
Just a thought.
In the news:
- "Developments on swine flu worldwide"
The Associated Press (May 12, 2009) xx-1hr - "Miami-Dade, Broward each have 10 cases of swine flu"
The Miami Herald (May 12, 2009) xxx-6hrs - "Swine Flu Is as Severe as 1957 Pandemic, Study Shows (Update1) "
Bloomberg (May 12, 2009) - "Cuba confirms its 1st swine flu case"
USA Today (May 12, 2009) - "Assessing the severity of an influenza pandemic"
WHO (May 11, 2009) - "Washington state death blamed on swine flu"
CNN (May 9, 2009) - "Tight security keeps hog population safe from disease"
CNN (May 8, 2009) - "Mexico swine flu death toll rises to 56"
Reuters (May 11, 2009) - "Other Illness May Precede Worst Cases of Swine Flu"
The New York Times (May 8, 2009)
Friday, May 8, 2009
Swine Flu / Influenza A(H1N1) - 2nd Minnesota Case Confirmed
"MDH: 2nd swine flu case confirmed in Metro"
KSTP (May 7, 2009)
"The Minnesota Department of Health has reported a second confirmed case of swine flu, this time in the Metro.
"According to the the MDH website, the department lists a second case in the Twin Cities area along with the first confirmed case from Cold Spring.
"The department has not given any further specifics about the location of the Metro confirmed case.
"Health officials earlier this week backed away from recommending that schools with swine flu cases be closed, saying the virus was acting like ordinary seasonal flu...."
I'm not terribly surprised that there's a second confirmed case in Minnesota. People here travel about as much as people in any state in the union. About reversing the 'close the schools' recommendation: that's about what we're seeing from other agencies, all the way up to WHO, where travel restrictions between countries aren't being recommended.
I quoted the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, earlier today. He said this about influenza A(H1N1): "...'We cna't [!] make any definitive projections about where this is going. It appears to be acting like a typical seasonal flu, only it's out of season. We shouldn't be seeing this much influenza and it's with a new virus and that's the cause fo [!]the concern.'..." (CNN)
In other words: there isn't that much difference between influenza A(H1N1) and a typical seasonal flu. Except that this new human / avian / swine flu hybrid is making the rounds at an unusual time of year.
KSTP provided some links, including:
So far, here in Minnesota we've got 2 confirmed cases of this swine flu / H1N1 novel influenza / influenza A(H1N1). Plus 19 probable cases.
And, the 'big one' - the 1918 pandemic - started out as a relatively innocuous disease.
So, if the people in charge try to control the spread of this disease, and make the public aware of the possible risks, they're plotting against the people.
If they don't, they might be like the fellow we hear about now and again: the leader or a town near the Indian Ocean, who was very sensible and level-headed. The locals were fussing about some far-off eruption, but he kept them from rushing to the docks and making a run for it. Probably saved a life or two, by preventing confusion around the boats.
Instead, people in that town had a ringside seat for the big Krakatoa eruption.
I don't know how much of that story is true. The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa (or Krakatau) was real enough: with an official death toll a little upwards of 36,000. I wasn't able to get a name for the fellow who prevented public panic - at the cost of his subjects' lives. (More at "Department of Geological Sciences at San Diego State University, Earlham College.)
Bottom line: health officials and elected public leaders aren't clairoyant. They don't have crystal balls, and they can't see into the future.
Some public leaders haven't done all that well: like the Egyptian government's hog slaughter, following zero cases of swine flu among Egyptians, and zero cases among Egyptian pigs. Egyptian pig farmers were none to happy about that exercise in goofiness.
On the other hand, outfits like the CDC and WHO have, to date, published statements which are, if anything, rather dull statistical reports with a familiar recommendations about washing our hands before and after handling food. That, and not sneezing on other people.
Me? I'm following the progress of influenza A(H1N1), posting about it now and again, and updating that 'anchor page, "Swine Flu 2009," as I find new resources.
List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:
KSTP (May 7, 2009)
"The Minnesota Department of Health has reported a second confirmed case of swine flu, this time in the Metro.
"According to the the MDH website, the department lists a second case in the Twin Cities area along with the first confirmed case from Cold Spring.
"The department has not given any further specifics about the location of the Metro confirmed case.
"Health officials earlier this week backed away from recommending that schools with swine flu cases be closed, saying the virus was acting like ordinary seasonal flu...."
I'm not terribly surprised that there's a second confirmed case in Minnesota. People here travel about as much as people in any state in the union. About reversing the 'close the schools' recommendation: that's about what we're seeing from other agencies, all the way up to WHO, where travel restrictions between countries aren't being recommended.
I quoted the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, earlier today. He said this about influenza A(H1N1): "...'We cna't [!] make any definitive projections about where this is going. It appears to be acting like a typical seasonal flu, only it's out of season. We shouldn't be seeing this much influenza and it's with a new virus and that's the cause fo [!]the concern.'..." (CNN)
In other words: there isn't that much difference between influenza A(H1N1) and a typical seasonal flu. Except that this new human / avian / swine flu hybrid is making the rounds at an unusual time of year.
KSTP provided some links, including:
- H1N1 Novel Influenza (formerly known as swine flu)
Minnesota Department of Health - "Swine Flu FAQ's"
Mayo Clinic
(includes a video)
So far, here in Minnesota we've got 2 confirmed cases of this swine flu / H1N1 novel influenza / influenza A(H1N1). Plus 19 probable cases.
Officials Don't Know Everything
I don't envy people who are in leadership positions - particularly when something like this mutant flu is involved. It's a new disease, and killed 1 in 14 of the first 900-plus people who caught it. The death rate now is around what a normal flu virus inflicts. Influenza A(H1N1) acts like a normal flu, but it's going around at the wrong time of year.And, the 'big one' - the 1918 pandemic - started out as a relatively innocuous disease.
So, if the people in charge try to control the spread of this disease, and make the public aware of the possible risks, they're plotting against the people.
If they don't, they might be like the fellow we hear about now and again: the leader or a town near the Indian Ocean, who was very sensible and level-headed. The locals were fussing about some far-off eruption, but he kept them from rushing to the docks and making a run for it. Probably saved a life or two, by preventing confusion around the boats.
Instead, people in that town had a ringside seat for the big Krakatoa eruption.
I don't know how much of that story is true. The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa (or Krakatau) was real enough: with an official death toll a little upwards of 36,000. I wasn't able to get a name for the fellow who prevented public panic - at the cost of his subjects' lives. (More at "Department of Geological Sciences at San Diego State University, Earlham College.)
Bottom line: health officials and elected public leaders aren't clairoyant. They don't have crystal balls, and they can't see into the future.
Some public leaders haven't done all that well: like the Egyptian government's hog slaughter, following zero cases of swine flu among Egyptians, and zero cases among Egyptian pigs. Egyptian pig farmers were none to happy about that exercise in goofiness.
On the other hand, outfits like the CDC and WHO have, to date, published statements which are, if anything, rather dull statistical reports with a familiar recommendations about washing our hands before and after handling food. That, and not sneezing on other people.
Me? I'm following the progress of influenza A(H1N1), posting about it now and again, and updating that 'anchor page, "Swine Flu 2009," as I find new resources.
List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:
Swine Flu / Influenza A(H1N1) Conspiracy Theories - No Surprises There
"2 U.S. swine flu dead had other health problems, officials say"
CNN (May 7, 2009)
"Both people who died of swine flu in the United States had pre-existing health problems, federal health authorities said Thursday in a report.
"The 22-month-old child who died April 27 of the flu, also called H1N1, had neonatal myasthenia gravis, an autoimmune disease, said the report, which was written by a virus investigation team at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and published online in the New England Journal of Medicine. The child -- who was from Mexico and who fell ill while visiting relatives in Texas -- also had a heart defect, problems swallowing and chronic hypoxia, the report said.
"The 33-year-old Texas woman who died last week was pregnant when she became ill, the article said. She had been diagnosed with asthma, rheumatoid arthritis and psoriasis...."
The new human/avian/swine flu, influenza A(H1N1), doesn't seem to be as deadly as the 1-death-for-every-14-cases kill ratio of the early cases indicated.
'Obviously,' it's some kind of a plot.
That date is exactly as given under the article's headline, by the way. It may have been written by a time traveler from the 201st century, but I think it's more likely that "May 4, 20099" is a typo.
The first three paragraphs give a pretty good idea of what the article's focus:
"The H1N1 virus itself has claimed less lives than a normal flu outbreak would be expected to kill, but the architecture of martial law in the form of draconian measures readied to combat a pandemic has been firmly locked into place.
"Health authorities are now toning down their apocalyptic predictions of a swine flu pandemic, after the virus proved to be milder than originally feared, but officials are warning that a deadlier form of the illness could return in autumn or winter.
"The gargantuan fearmongering engaged in by western governments, despite the virus killing just one 23-month-old toddler in the U.S., has set the standard for what we can expect to see when the next outbreak occurs, which officials are already proclaiming will be later this year...."
I'm old enough to remember the tail end of the period in American history when 'commie plots' were used to explain what was 'really behind' anything that a vocal and enthusiastic minority didn't like.
I remember all to well the decades when 'commies' were replaced by 'the military-industrial complex,' as another bunch of people got America's cultural microphone.
And, I've recently learned that, according to some people, space alien shape-shifting lizard people are running the world.
Me? I enjoy conspiracy theories - in fiction. I enjoyed watching "The Invaders," back in the sixties (the invaders were space alien shape-shifting mushrooms, sort of), and remember reading a science-fiction story or two with a similar premise.
But, that's entertainment.
I'm not willing to assume that "They" are behind events, unless there aren't reasonable alternatives to some vast conspiracy. Cool as that situation would be.
I've taken the trouble to read the "gargantuan fearmongering engaged in by western governments" - like the daily reports made available by the CDC. ("Swine Flu 2009" is my resource link page.)
And, honestly, what I read was rather didactic, practical, reports about a disease that was new, and therefore unknown. It had, in the earliest cases, killed one out of every 14 people infected.
This mutant swine flu was no "Satan Bug," but it was - in those first 900 or so cases - quite lethal enough to warrant attention.
As I've written before, there seems to be a deep-seated need to blame someone: the commies, the military-industrial complex, western governments, shape-shifting space alien lizard people, or whatever.
Now, the not-so-good news: the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said this about influenza A(H1N1): "...'We cna't [!] make any definitive projections about where this is going. It appears to be acting like a typical seasonal flu, only it's out of season. We shouldn't be seeing this much influenza and it's with a new virus and that's the cause fo [!]the concern.'..." (CNN)
Maybe Dr. Fauci's words are more "gargantuan fearmongering" - or maybe he's a medical professional whose job involves studying a new virus. One that had a respectable kill ratio at first, and which isn't acting the way 'the flu' should now.
Even in that first week, I didn't see reason to panic. (Think about it: does panic ever help?) But, I'm not going to assume that influenza A(H1N1) is a hoax, and that They are trying to take over the world.
Adding more fuel to the fear fires, the World Health Organization is involved. That could mean the U.N. is behind this! To a dedicated c. theorist, anyway. "WHO is the directing and coordinating authority for health within the United Nations system." (About WHO) People who are a little crazy regarding the United Nations are likely to get quite imaginative, once they make the connection.
And, while conspiracy theorists are getting hot and bothered about how They are plotting to take over the world, researchers in the CDC, WHO, and related outfits will be keeping an eye on influenza A(H1N1).
List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:
CNN (May 7, 2009)
"Both people who died of swine flu in the United States had pre-existing health problems, federal health authorities said Thursday in a report.
"The 22-month-old child who died April 27 of the flu, also called H1N1, had neonatal myasthenia gravis, an autoimmune disease, said the report, which was written by a virus investigation team at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and published online in the New England Journal of Medicine. The child -- who was from Mexico and who fell ill while visiting relatives in Texas -- also had a heart defect, problems swallowing and chronic hypoxia, the report said.
"The 33-year-old Texas woman who died last week was pregnant when she became ill, the article said. She had been diagnosed with asthma, rheumatoid arthritis and psoriasis...."
The new human/avian/swine flu, influenza A(H1N1), doesn't seem to be as deadly as the 1-death-for-every-14-cases kill ratio of the early cases indicated.
'Obviously,' it's some kind of a plot.
Here Come the Conspiracy Theories
"Swine Flu A Hoax, But Martial Law All Too Real" (Alex Jones' inforwars.com (May 4, 20099)) is an example.That date is exactly as given under the article's headline, by the way. It may have been written by a time traveler from the 201st century, but I think it's more likely that "May 4, 20099" is a typo.
The first three paragraphs give a pretty good idea of what the article's focus:
"The H1N1 virus itself has claimed less lives than a normal flu outbreak would be expected to kill, but the architecture of martial law in the form of draconian measures readied to combat a pandemic has been firmly locked into place.
"Health authorities are now toning down their apocalyptic predictions of a swine flu pandemic, after the virus proved to be milder than originally feared, but officials are warning that a deadlier form of the illness could return in autumn or winter.
"The gargantuan fearmongering engaged in by western governments, despite the virus killing just one 23-month-old toddler in the U.S., has set the standard for what we can expect to see when the next outbreak occurs, which officials are already proclaiming will be later this year...."
I'm old enough to remember the tail end of the period in American history when 'commie plots' were used to explain what was 'really behind' anything that a vocal and enthusiastic minority didn't like.
I remember all to well the decades when 'commies' were replaced by 'the military-industrial complex,' as another bunch of people got America's cultural microphone.
And, I've recently learned that, according to some people, space alien shape-shifting lizard people are running the world.
Me? I enjoy conspiracy theories - in fiction. I enjoyed watching "The Invaders," back in the sixties (the invaders were space alien shape-shifting mushrooms, sort of), and remember reading a science-fiction story or two with a similar premise.
But, that's entertainment.
I'm not willing to assume that "They" are behind events, unless there aren't reasonable alternatives to some vast conspiracy. Cool as that situation would be.
I've taken the trouble to read the "gargantuan fearmongering engaged in by western governments" - like the daily reports made available by the CDC. ("Swine Flu 2009" is my resource link page.)
And, honestly, what I read was rather didactic, practical, reports about a disease that was new, and therefore unknown. It had, in the earliest cases, killed one out of every 14 people infected.
This mutant swine flu was no "Satan Bug," but it was - in those first 900 or so cases - quite lethal enough to warrant attention.
As I've written before, there seems to be a deep-seated need to blame someone: the commies, the military-industrial complex, western governments, shape-shifting space alien lizard people, or whatever.
Good News, Not-so-Good News
First, the good news. The American who died from influenza A(H1N1) had a number of serious medical problems before getting infected. Between her case, and a number of others, there's reason to believe that the first thousand (almost) cases were a fluke. Or the result of something other than the virus itself.Now, the not-so-good news: the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said this about influenza A(H1N1): "...'We cna't [!] make any definitive projections about where this is going. It appears to be acting like a typical seasonal flu, only it's out of season. We shouldn't be seeing this much influenza and it's with a new virus and that's the cause fo [!]the concern.'..." (CNN)
Maybe Dr. Fauci's words are more "gargantuan fearmongering" - or maybe he's a medical professional whose job involves studying a new virus. One that had a respectable kill ratio at first, and which isn't acting the way 'the flu' should now.
Even in that first week, I didn't see reason to panic. (Think about it: does panic ever help?) But, I'm not going to assume that influenza A(H1N1) is a hoax, and that They are trying to take over the world.
There's Plenty of Fear Fuel for Conspiracy Theorists
I think there's a chance that some wild and wacky conspiracy theories are going to crop up in the next few months - possibly sooner. There's the scary disease (or hoax), and scary government agencies like the CDC are involved.Adding more fuel to the fear fires, the World Health Organization is involved. That could mean the U.N. is behind this! To a dedicated c. theorist, anyway. "WHO is the directing and coordinating authority for health within the United Nations system." (About WHO) People who are a little crazy regarding the United Nations are likely to get quite imaginative, once they make the connection.
And, while conspiracy theorists are getting hot and bothered about how They are plotting to take over the world, researchers in the CDC, WHO, and related outfits will be keeping an eye on influenza A(H1N1).
List of posts relating to Swine flu 2009; and list of background resources:
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Swine Flu / Influenza 2009 H1N1 - Edging off the Front Page, but Not a Dead Issue
"Swine flu kills 2nd person in U.S."
Reuters (May 5, 2009)
"A Texas woman with the new H1N1 swine flu died earlier this week, state health officials said on Tuesday, the second death outside of Mexico, where the epidemic appeared to be waning.
"The death of the woman, who was in her 30s and had health problems, followed that of a Mexican toddler visiting Texas. U.S. health officials have predicted that the virus would spread and inevitably kill some people, just as seasonal flu does.
"The World Health Organisation was monitoring the spread of the virus and said 21 countries have officially reported 1,490 cases...."
'It could be worse,' as we say in Minnesota. America has over 400 cases of swine flu / influenza A(H1N1) now - and this is the second death in this country. The toddler who was brought to a Texas hospital for treatment before dying was not a resident of the United States, so America has a roughly 1 in 400 death rate from this flu.
That's much less serious than the 1 in about 14 rate, early on in influenza A(H1N1)'s progress. The death rate in Mexico now is 29 deaths out of 822 cases, or a bit over 1 in 28 cases: half as bad as when this began, but still bad.
So far, there are 1,490 confirmed cases around the world: with no reported deaths outside Mexico or the United States. (More at "Influenza A(H1N1) - update 16" and "Influenza A(H1N1) - update 15" WHO (May 5, 2009).)
Any sort of influenza is at best unpleasant - and potentially lethal. But, there are common-sense ways to increase your chances of staying healthy. The CDC has a pretty good list on its "H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu)" page, where they post updates. Look for the "What You Can Do to Stay Healthy" heading.
I'm following their advice: I'm not in a panic over swine flu, but I'm not stupid, either.
That makes something called a cytokine storm, a cool name for hypercytokinemia, possible in people who get infected. It seems to boil down to the immune system over-reacting, once it 'notices' that there's an infection. Think of a city's police force using tactical nukes to handle a riot. I wrote a little more about it, with links, on May 2, 2009.
What's interesting about the cytokine storm situation is that it hits healthy people with good, working, immune systems harder than the young, the elderly, and people with compromised immune systems.
"Swine flu," or influenza A(H1N1), is edging out of the top headlines. Which is good sense, I think. I doubt that there are many people now, who
It's 'no visitors, period' at the local nursing home.
The Alexandria, Minnesota, Technical College hosted a community picnic & Cinco de Mayo celebration today: and they picked a great day for it. It's not so festive down in Mexico, though, I read.
In the news:
Reuters (May 5, 2009)
"A Texas woman with the new H1N1 swine flu died earlier this week, state health officials said on Tuesday, the second death outside of Mexico, where the epidemic appeared to be waning.
"The death of the woman, who was in her 30s and had health problems, followed that of a Mexican toddler visiting Texas. U.S. health officials have predicted that the virus would spread and inevitably kill some people, just as seasonal flu does.
"The World Health Organisation was monitoring the spread of the virus and said 21 countries have officially reported 1,490 cases...."
'It could be worse,' as we say in Minnesota. America has over 400 cases of swine flu / influenza A(H1N1) now - and this is the second death in this country. The toddler who was brought to a Texas hospital for treatment before dying was not a resident of the United States, so America has a roughly 1 in 400 death rate from this flu.
That's much less serious than the 1 in about 14 rate, early on in influenza A(H1N1)'s progress. The death rate in Mexico now is 29 deaths out of 822 cases, or a bit over 1 in 28 cases: half as bad as when this began, but still bad.
So far, there are 1,490 confirmed cases around the world: with no reported deaths outside Mexico or the United States. (More at "Influenza A(H1N1) - update 16" and "Influenza A(H1N1) - update 15" WHO (May 5, 2009).)
Any sort of influenza is at best unpleasant - and potentially lethal. But, there are common-sense ways to increase your chances of staying healthy. The CDC has a pretty good list on its "H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu)" page, where they post updates. Look for the "What You Can Do to Stay Healthy" heading.
I'm following their advice: I'm not in a panic over swine flu, but I'm not stupid, either.
Cytokine Storm Review
I've been over this before, but it bears repeating. This year's influenza A(H1N1), or swine flu (really a sort of hybrid avian/swine/human flu) is new. Aside from the 1,400 or so people who caught it and live, we don't have an immunity to it.That makes something called a cytokine storm, a cool name for hypercytokinemia, possible in people who get infected. It seems to boil down to the immune system over-reacting, once it 'notices' that there's an infection. Think of a city's police force using tactical nukes to handle a riot. I wrote a little more about it, with links, on May 2, 2009.
What's interesting about the cytokine storm situation is that it hits healthy people with good, working, immune systems harder than the young, the elderly, and people with compromised immune systems.
Only a Few People Died, in Only Two Countries: Problem Over, Right?
I hope so, but WHO and national outfits like CDC would be irresponsible if they acted on that assumption."Swine flu," or influenza A(H1N1), is edging out of the top headlines. Which is good sense, I think. I doubt that there are many people now, who
- Pay attention to the news and
- Don't know about the new and improved 2009 "swine flu"
Meanwhile, Here in Central Minnesota - - -
Around here, Catholic churches have made the sign of peace a 'no contact' part of Mass, per the bishop's directions: an 'abundance of caution' thing, I think. And, Catholics have been told that if you're sick: stay home. The Sunday obligation is off if you've got health issues. Nothing new there, actually.It's 'no visitors, period' at the local nursing home.
The Alexandria, Minnesota, Technical College hosted a community picnic & Cinco de Mayo celebration today: and they picked a great day for it. It's not so festive down in Mexico, though, I read.
In the news:
- " Texas officials report second U.S. swine flu death "
CNN (May 5, 2009) - "Bay Area schools reconsider swine flu closures"
SFGATE / San Franciso Chronicle (May 5, 2009) - "Mexico Returning to Normal After Flu Shutdown"
FOXNews (May 5, 2009) - " Swine flu casts a cloud over Cinco de Mayo"
CNN (May 5, 2009) - " Mexican citizens to return from China"
CNN (May 5, 2009) - "1 swine flu case leads to 340 quarantines in Hong Kong"
CNN (May 4, 2009)
Monday, May 4, 2009
Swine Flu / Influenza A(H1N1) - Mexico Re-opening, WHO Cautious - I Doubt This is Over
Swine flu, influenza A(H1N1), is still showing up in more people in more places around the world - but not killing people. And, 'swine flu' is apparently waning in Mexico. As far as it goes, that's good news.
Kudos to the Mexican government, for having the good sense to shut down Mexico city - shops, soccer fans, Masses, and all - until they
I think that, ideally, the Mexican government would have noticed the first few cases a little earlier. That didn't happen - and once the existence of the disease was known, the Mexico's government seems to have skipped the step of denying that there's a problem, and jumped straight to setting up barriers to influenza A(H1N1)'s spread.
By that time, it was already in several other countries: but that's almost inevitable in a world with fast transportation and people who can afford to use it.
Meanwhile, it looks like Mexico City and the rest of Mexico are re-opening - and dealing with a massive international public relations problem. People in most countries seem to be aware that influenza A(H1N1) started (apparently) in Mexico - and are extraordinarily cautious about anybody with a Mexican passport. (Reuters, Independent Online)
That's good news.
And, although influenza A(H1N1) is spreading around the world, it doesn't seem to be as lethal as the first cases in Mexico were.
That's more good news.
But, swine flu / influenza A(H1N1) is an influenza virus. They mutate readily and quickly: That's how we got influenza A(H1N1) in the first place.
Which is why the World Health Organization (WHO) is keeping the global alert level ("phase," actually) at 5: "Evidence of significant human-to-human transmission"
Gulf Daily News (May 4, 2009) ("The Voice of Bahrain")
"MEXICO CITY: The World Health Organisation (WHO) chief warned yesterday that swine flu could return with a vengeance despite Mexico's President Felipe Calderon insisting his country has contained the epidemic. WHO chief Margaret Chan said that a second wave of the virus 'would be the biggest of all outbreaks the world has faced in the 21st century', confirming the total number of cases at 1,003 from 20 countries.
"Twenty-five people have died from swine flu, according to the WHO, all but one of them in Mexico. Twenty-one countries have confirmed cases of the virus which has affected more than 900 people.
"Calderon said Mexico had managed 'to contain the epidemic' and was now 'in a position to overcome' the influenza A (H1N1) virus.
"But Chan said the end of the flu season in the northern hemisphere meant that while any initial outbreak could be milder, a second wave could be more lethal...."
My oldest daughter told me that a number of students at the post-secondary school she's attending see the swine flu / influenza A(H1N1) as a joke. I think I can understand that, to some extent: during the last two decades, there hasn't been a disease that spread and disrupted life - not here, near the center of North America, at least. The last three big ones were during the 20th century:
That Gulf Daily News article is one of the relatively few I found that seem related to a Spanish-language article posted by a Madrid news outlet today: " 'Los virus de la gripe son tramposos, no hay que confiarse' ." (EL PAÍS (May 4, 2009) )
The headline translates, more or less, as "Influenza viruses are cheaters, we should not rely" - And yes, I know: that's not the best translation. I know a little Spanish - but for this I relied on Google Language Tools.
Part of the article is a Q & A (P. and R. in Spanish). One of the answers given by WHO's director-general, Dr. Margaret Chan, included this (translated):
"...If we take the pandemic of 1918 started as a very mild illness, and had a calm period in which it appeared had been withdrawn. But again, causing millions of deaths and disease. And this is something I want to emphasize: the influenza virus is very unpredictable, very tricky. We should not trust. In recent years we have made a lot of preparation. We are miles away from where we were five years ago, but we also need a great way to go." (EL PAÍS) 1
That's 'way too long to be a good sound bite, and doesn't lend itself to catchy headlines - but I think that Dr. Chan has a good point. The odds are that this swine flu, influenza A(H1N1), isn't done with us quite yet.
The flu season is starting in the southern hemisphere, where a few cases have shown up. And it's not at all unimaginable that a few people in the northern hemisphere may catch influenza A(H1N1) - even if it's not the right season for doing it.
Dr. Chan is right: the 1918-1920 pandemic had a lull before it killed over 600,000 Americans - and maybe 40,000,000 people around the world.
This year's human/avian/swine flu variant, influenza A(H1N1), may turn out to be relatively innocuous. An American official has declared that it's more dangerous than ordinary influenza. That may continue to be true, and influenza A(H1N1) may not go on to infect large numbers of people.
That would be nice.
But I've noticed that viruses are notoriously inconsiderate of official pronouncements. I think that WHO's cautious 'keep a close eye on this' approach is prudent - and may save a great many lives.
In the news:
1 Quote from " 'Los virus de la gripe son tramposos, no hay que confiarse' " ("Influenza viruses are cheaters, we should not rely" - more or less) (EL PAÍS (May 4, 2009))
Original excerpt, one question and response:
Kudos to the Mexican government, for having the good sense to shut down Mexico city - shops, soccer fans, Masses, and all - until they
- Had some idea of what they were dealing with and
- Could see that the disease had (apparently) peaked and was on the wane
I think that, ideally, the Mexican government would have noticed the first few cases a little earlier. That didn't happen - and once the existence of the disease was known, the Mexico's government seems to have skipped the step of denying that there's a problem, and jumped straight to setting up barriers to influenza A(H1N1)'s spread.
By that time, it was already in several other countries: but that's almost inevitable in a world with fast transportation and people who can afford to use it.
Meanwhile, it looks like Mexico City and the rest of Mexico are re-opening - and dealing with a massive international public relations problem. People in most countries seem to be aware that influenza A(H1N1) started (apparently) in Mexico - and are extraordinarily cautious about anybody with a Mexican passport. (Reuters, Independent Online)
Flue Alert Level Lowered: in Mexico
Mexico's lowered its national alert level. The Mexican epidemic is waning where it began: and the universities, cafes, museums and libraries that were closed will be opened again this week. (AP)That's good news.
And, although influenza A(H1N1) is spreading around the world, it doesn't seem to be as lethal as the first cases in Mexico were.
That's more good news.
But, swine flu / influenza A(H1N1) is an influenza virus. They mutate readily and quickly: That's how we got influenza A(H1N1) in the first place.
Which is why the World Health Organization (WHO) is keeping the global alert level ("phase," actually) at 5: "Evidence of significant human-to-human transmission"
The 1918 Spanish Influenza Wasn't Much of a Problem - At First
" WHO alert over second attack"Gulf Daily News (May 4, 2009) ("The Voice of Bahrain")
"MEXICO CITY: The World Health Organisation (WHO) chief warned yesterday that swine flu could return with a vengeance despite Mexico's President Felipe Calderon insisting his country has contained the epidemic. WHO chief Margaret Chan said that a second wave of the virus 'would be the biggest of all outbreaks the world has faced in the 21st century', confirming the total number of cases at 1,003 from 20 countries.
"Twenty-five people have died from swine flu, according to the WHO, all but one of them in Mexico. Twenty-one countries have confirmed cases of the virus which has affected more than 900 people.
"Calderon said Mexico had managed 'to contain the epidemic' and was now 'in a position to overcome' the influenza A (H1N1) virus.
"But Chan said the end of the flu season in the northern hemisphere meant that while any initial outbreak could be milder, a second wave could be more lethal...."
My oldest daughter told me that a number of students at the post-secondary school she's attending see the swine flu / influenza A(H1N1) as a joke. I think I can understand that, to some extent: during the last two decades, there hasn't been a disease that spread and disrupted life - not here, near the center of North America, at least. The last three big ones were during the 20th century:
- "Spanish flu"
- 1918-1920
- An H1N1 virus
- "Asian flu"
- 1957-1958
- An H2N2 virus
- "Hong Kong flu"
- 1968-1969
- An H3N2 virus
That Gulf Daily News article is one of the relatively few I found that seem related to a Spanish-language article posted by a Madrid news outlet today: " 'Los virus de la gripe son tramposos, no hay que confiarse' ." (EL PAÍS (May 4, 2009) )
The headline translates, more or less, as "Influenza viruses are cheaters, we should not rely" - And yes, I know: that's not the best translation. I know a little Spanish - but for this I relied on Google Language Tools.
Part of the article is a Q & A (P. and R. in Spanish). One of the answers given by WHO's director-general, Dr. Margaret Chan, included this (translated):
"...If we take the pandemic of 1918 started as a very mild illness, and had a calm period in which it appeared had been withdrawn. But again, causing millions of deaths and disease. And this is something I want to emphasize: the influenza virus is very unpredictable, very tricky. We should not trust. In recent years we have made a lot of preparation. We are miles away from where we were five years ago, but we also need a great way to go." (EL PAÍS) 1
That's 'way too long to be a good sound bite, and doesn't lend itself to catchy headlines - but I think that Dr. Chan has a good point. The odds are that this swine flu, influenza A(H1N1), isn't done with us quite yet.
The flu season is starting in the southern hemisphere, where a few cases have shown up. And it's not at all unimaginable that a few people in the northern hemisphere may catch influenza A(H1N1) - even if it's not the right season for doing it.
Dr. Chan is right: the 1918-1920 pandemic had a lull before it killed over 600,000 Americans - and maybe 40,000,000 people around the world.
This year's human/avian/swine flu variant, influenza A(H1N1), may turn out to be relatively innocuous. An American official has declared that it's more dangerous than ordinary influenza. That may continue to be true, and influenza A(H1N1) may not go on to infect large numbers of people.
That would be nice.
But I've noticed that viruses are notoriously inconsiderate of official pronouncements. I think that WHO's cautious 'keep a close eye on this' approach is prudent - and may save a great many lives.
In the news:
- "Flu-hit Mexico to resume business"
Reuters (May 4, 2009) - "When a pandemic isn't a pandemic"
CNN (May 4, 2009) - " WHO alert over second attack"
Gulf Daily News (May 4, 2009) ("The Voice of Bahrain") - "Mexico says flu ebbing, lowers alert level"
The Associated Press (May 5, 2009) - "China defends quarantine"
Independent Online (May 4, 2009) - "Swine flu confirmed in Orange, Riverside counties"
Los Angeles Times (May 4, 2009) - "Swine flu no worse than regular flu, Napolitano says"
CNN (May 4, 2009) - "Confirmed cases of H1N1 virus approach 1,000"
CNN (May 4, 2009) - "Influenza A(H1N1) - update 14"
World Health Organization (WHO) (May 4, 2009) - "Influenza A(H1N1) - update 13"
World Health Organization (WHO) (May 4, 2009) - " 'Los virus de la gripe son tramposos, no hay que confiarse' "
("Influenza viruses are cheaters, we should not rely" - more or less)
EL PAÍS (May 4, 2009)
- "WHO ad hoc scientific teleconference on the current influenza A(H1N1) situation"
World Health Organization (WHO) (April 29, 2009) (pdf)
1 Quote from " 'Los virus de la gripe son tramposos, no hay que confiarse' " ("Influenza viruses are cheaters, we should not rely" - more or less) (EL PAÍS (May 4, 2009))
Original excerpt, one question and response:
"P. ¿Ni aventurarse a predecirlo?Translation, using Google Language Tools:
"R. Ahora que ya estamos viendo un número de casos en México y en Estados Unidos, estamos enfrentándonos a muchos leves, algunos graves e incluso a unas cuantas muertes. Estamos en una fase muy temprana de esta nueva enfermedad, y por eso lo que digo es que nuestra obligación es mantener la atención, no perderle ojo y no dejar que se nos escape nada. Si tomamos la pandemia de 1918, empezó también como una enfermedad muy leve, y tuvo un periodo de calma en el que parecía que se había retirado. Pero volvió y causó millones de muertos y enfermos. Y esto es algo que quiero destacar: los virus de la gripe son muy impredecibles, muy tramposos. No debemos confiarnos. En los últimos años hemos hecho mucha preparación. Estamos a kilómetros a distancia de los que estábamos hace cinco años, pero también nos falta un gran trecho por recorrer."
"P. Not daring to predict it?
"R. Now that we are seeing a number of cases in Mexico and United States are facing many minor, some serious and even a few deaths. We are at a very early stage of this new disease, which is why I am saying is that our obligation is to keep the attention, not losing an eye and not let anything slip away. If we take the pandemic of 1918 started as a very mild illness, and had a calm period in which it appeared had been withdrawn. But again, causing millions of deaths and disease. And this is something I want to emphasize: the influenza virus is very unpredictable, very tricky. We should not trust. In recent years we have made a lot of preparation. We are miles away from where we were five years ago, but we also need a great way to go."
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