DIY Fireworks - Kids, Don't Try This at Home

"DIY Fireworks Blow Away Factory-Made Displays"
Danielle Venton, Wired Science, Wired (July 3, 2011)

"On the Fourth of July, the sky above towns across the nation will glow in a blitz of factory-made colors.

"But some of the biggest, best and most innovative fireworks won't be on display during the holiday. Instead, they'll be tucked away in the garages and home workshops of hobbyists like Tom Niesen.

" 'I'm an old-school firework artist,' said Niesen, a 43-year-old electrical technician in Duluth, Minnesota. 'I build some of the largest fireworks in the nation. It's something very few people can do.'...

"...Innovations have traditionally come slow to the field: Basic firework chemistry hasn't changed much in the past 200 years. One thing that could really use some help from ambitious hobbyists is the lackluster blue we're forced to put up with, Conkling said. The copper compounds that give fireworks a blue color break down under the high heat needed for bright colors.

" 'So we can get a really bright red, a really bright white, but we're stuck with a sort of mediocre blue for our national colors,' Conkling said. 'There are a lot of amateur pyrotechnicians pursuing this. They'll spend their winter nights in the basement trying to make a better blue.'..."

There's more to the article¹ - including a set of pretty good photos of fireworks displays.

Now, the Lemming's going to rant. Just a little.

Being Crazy, Being Careful, and Being Crazy-Careful

There's a huge difference between some dude propelled by energy drinks, something he read on the Internet, and over-confidence, blowing himself up: and somebody with experience and sense trying to improve a process.

For the last half-century, at least, America's best and brightest (just ask them) have been assuming that The Masses have the reasoning power of a four-year-old, and the self-control of a cat in heat. At least it seems that way. Particularly when yet one more regulation comes along.

Or another insanely-obvious warning label. Like the one on a transparent jar of peanuts: Labeled "PEANUTS...INGREDIENTS: PEANUTS...ALLERGY WARNING: CONTAINS PEANUTS". Good grief, what part of "PEANUTS" did some bureaucrat think we wouldn't understand?!

Should a toddler play with sparklers - unattended? The Lemming thinks not. Should sparklers be forever banned because someone, somewhere, might let a toddler play with sparklers? The Lemming thinks that's overkill.

Is it safe to experiment with new fireworks formulas? Of course not.

It's also not 'safe' to use LP gas to grill hamburgers. Not in the 'nothing could possibly go wrong, no matter how many daft, stupid, self-destructive lapses in judgment are committed' sense. And yet, the Lemming routinely grills burgers on an LP gas grill. And hasn't blown up the neighborhood.

Not yet, anyway.

It's not likely to happen, either - because the Lemming observes common-sense safety precautions. Like shutting off the gas flow if the grill doesn't light.

America has tried being crazy-careful for decades. And ingenious nitwits still manage to hurt themselves now and then.

Maybe it's time to try being just plain careful - and let someone else be crazy for a change.

Somewhat-related posts:

• "Fireworks, Common Sense, and the Incredible Exploding House"
  (July 2, 2011)
• "Aerators in Minnesota Lakes: Good for Fish; For People, Not So Much"
  (January 6, 2011)
• "Our Benevolent Rulers Protecting Us From Big Paperclip?!"
  (October 2, 2010)
• "Salmonella in Eggs: It's Enough to Make You Sick"
  (August 20, 2010)
• "A Fireworks Glossary"
  (July 4, 2009)

Background:

• Northern Lighter Pyrotechnic, Inc.
  "a non-profit corporation formed for the purposes of promoting the safety, skill and artistry in pyrotechnics...."

---

¹ More from the Wired article:

"...Essentially all public shows will use mass-produced factory fireworks, mostly from China; competition and regulation have largely snuffed out U.S. makers. These fireworks are cheap and abundant, great for post-barbecue reverie but unsatisfying to discerning eyes.

" 'In municipal displays you'll see quantity over quality,' said Niesen, a member of Northern Lighter Pyrotechnics. 'For something really spectacular, the public should come to the conventions of fireworks clubs.'

"Amateur clubs are the source of many of the improvements in firework technology, said John Conkling, a chemist at Washington College in Maryland and author of The Chemistry of Pyrotechnics. Clubs like the Northern Lighters attract licensed hobbyists with the diligence and dedication to innovate....
(Danielle Venton, Wired Science)

Fireworks, Common Sense, and the Incredible Exploding House

Nothing quite says 'Independence Day' like firing up a sparkler, and setting fire to another few square miles of the American south.

NOT.

Which is why there won't be fireworks this year in some parts of the country. Not if local authorities have anything to say about it.

"Wildfires, Drought Halt July 4 Fireworks Across South"
The Wall Street Journal, via MyFox Washington, D.C. (July 2, 2011)

"This Fourth of July holiday could be dimmer than usual across the South after officials imposed bans on the sale and use of fireworks amid persistent drought and some of the worst wildfires in recorded history, The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday.

"Officials from Florida to Arizona have prohibited the use of fireworks to reduce the risk of more wildfires. They are also asking counties and residents where bans are not in place to give up holiday displays.

"New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez on Wednesday ordered state police officers to help enforce bans and restrictions put in place across parts of the state. 'The conditions in New Mexico are simply too dangerous for anyone to buy, sell or use fireworks this summer,' she said in a statement.

"The Texas Department of Public Safety Tuesday pleaded with counties, cities and citizens to forgo fireworks. So far, 179 of Texas's 254 counties have banned fireworks, according to Gov. Rick Perry's office...."

The Lemming isn't, generally, of the 'outlaw everything' school of thought. Yes, folks have burned their fingers on sparklers - and worse. Yes, each year some folks die because of medical conditions that started with a steady diet of burgers and fries and shakes and more burgers and fries.

But that doesn't mean that we need to 'save the children - ban hamburgers now!'

This year, though - there's a real drought, and a real danger that fireworks could start off more conflagrations. The key word there is "more." Folks in the Arizona-Florida swath of America already have quite enough fires to deal with.

Under these circumstances, a 'no fireworks' rule makes sense.

Here in central Minnesota, we got drenched a few days back, and then a heat advisory made for a memorable ramp-up to the Fourth of July weekend. And not-quite-legal fireworks have been going snap-crackle-whoosh-boom without striking dread into the Lemming's heart.

"Don't Set Fire to Yourself" - Good Advice, Actually

"Please don't set yourself on fire this weekend"
Jane Friedmann: On Your Side Consumer Alerts, Star Tribune (July 2, 2011)

"Fireworks are dangerous. (Who knew?) That's the latest word from the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission.

"The commissioners have a point. To borrow from 'A Christmas Story,' you can SHOOT YOUR EYE OUT with those things.

"Seemingly benign sparklers burn at 2,000 degrees, as the CPSC has indicated in boldface. That's hot enough to melt copper. That's as hot as a blowtorch.

"Bottle rockets, while illegal in Minnesota, may nonetheless fly here and there this weekend. They travel at 7 to 10 feet per second and can deviate from their flight plan without prior authorization. Don't point them at anybody, folks. Well, and don't use them at all. They're illegal, remember?

"Additional tips from the commission:

"•Supervise the wee ones during sparkler activities, especially those under 5.

"•Don't try to relight a dud. This is also considered good relationship advice.

"•Douse used fireworks before putting them in the trash and keep a hose handy for those unexpected fires or 'mishaps.'

"•Don't shoot fireworks off in a glass or metal container.

"•Like alcohol, avoid fireworks that come in a plain brown wrapper; they aren't meant for amateurs.

"•Don't throw lit fireworks at people.

"•Don't carry them around in your pocket.

"•And lastly, my personal favorite, don't hold your body over a firework as you light it.

"I will add one piece of advice of my own.

"•Don't drive around town with a bag of M-80s under the driver's seat."

That last is really good advice for anyone living in America. Citizens aren't allowed to own M-80s. And haven't, since the mid-'60s. Same goes for cherry bombs.

Although the Lemming's convinced that the M-80 ban was at least partly connected with the virulent anti-military-anything craze sweeping the country - there's some sense to it. An M-80 holds a few grams of flash powder, and really is a military explosive - it was designed, so the Lemming understands, as a simulation of artillery fire and other explosives. That "M" really does stand for "military."

They're also something you shouldn't have under your car seat. As Jane Friedmann explained:

"...As the story goes, a person I once knew bought a bunch of M-80s many years ago. That July 4th, he and his girlfriend drove around town with the M-80s in a bag under the driver's seat...."

Doctors can do remarkable things these days, provided someone gets all the pieces to them in time - the dude and dudette lived.

The car became a cone-shaped bit of civic sculpture, set as a sort of "cautionary tale" near the Dairy Building at the Minnesota State Fair. Apparently it's not there any more. The kaput car, that is, not the Dairy Building.

By the way, the Lemming's providing a copy of the "2010 Fireworks Annual Report," (U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission staff - but without official review or approval (June, 2011)). Plausible deniability, anyone?

'60s-Plus-50: Mellowed With Age?

The Lemming found the tone of the Star-Tribune article on fireworks safety refreshingly relaxed: a far cry from the strident battle-cries of peace activists back in the 'Good Old Days' - which the Lemming hopes never come back. The '50s weren't all Happy Days either, and that's another topic.

BAN FIREWORKS NOW OR YOUR HOUSE WILL EXPLODE!!!

The Lemming found the "2010 Fireworks Annual Report" about as scintillating as most government reports, but your experience may vary. Here's a sample:

"...CPSC staff received reports of three fireworks-related deaths during 2010. In the first incident, a 22-year-old male died after he fell from a cliff when he detonated unspecified fireworks. In the second incident, a 49-year-old male perished when the fireworks he made illegally in his garage exploded. In the third incident, a 55-year-old male died in a house explosion caused by teenagers' mischievous use of Roman candles. CPSC staff has reports of two fireworks-related deaths in 2009. Reporting is not complete for either year, and the actual number of deaths may be higher...."

Married men, the Lemming's heard, live ten years longer, on average, than their bachelor counterparts. And that's not quite another topic.

That "house explosion caused by teenagers' mischievous use of Roman candles" is - intriguing. Apparently the Roman candles ignited curtains, the fire somehow caused an explosion, and the explosion made it impossible for the man to escape.

Now, about the "ban fireworks now or your house will explode" thing?

Between an impending presidential election and endemic fears of cataclysm, catastrophe, and collapse: the Lemming's anticipating some world-class craziness in the near future.

So, for the benefit of the assorted conspiracy buffs, wannabe end-times prophets, and angsty advocates: the Lemming's micro-review of "Tips for Not Appearing Crazy on the Internet:"

"How to Not Sound Crazy - or - THE PARANOIDS ARE AFTER ME!!!"
(June 12, 2011)

"...And yet he's still treated by many as a serious pundit because he has the discipline to make it so it's not blatantly obvious to a casual reader that he's Kleenex-boxes-for-shoes, the-squirrels-are-spying-on-me, kung-fu-fighting-invisible-ninjas crazy...."

Yes! You, too, can cloak your craziness under a convincing cover of conventional composition. And that's - you guessed it - another topic.

Somewhat-related posts:

• "Lemming Tracks: Fourth of July Weekend, 2011"
  (July 1, 2011)
• " 'It was Only a Small Fire' - The Lemming Gets Personal"
  (April 2, 2011)
  • Fireworks, no
  • Exploding engine component, yes
  • Or, logging chains are your friends
• "A Fireworks Glossary"
  (July 4, 2009)
• "July Fourth, American Independence Day: Fireworks, Barbecue and a Freedom Swim"
  (July 3, 2009)
• "Minnesota Fireworks: Fear, Fun, and the Fourth"
  (July 1, 2008)

Asteroid Misses Earth, Good News; It's Not Unique, Not-So-Good News

"Close Shave: Asteroid to Just Miss Earth Today"
Space.com (June 27, 2011)

"An asteroid the size of a tour bus will fly past Earth today (June 27) so closely it will be beneath some of the planet's satellites.

"The rock, named asteroid 2011 MD will zoom by just 7,500 miles (12,000 km) above the planet, making a sharp turn forced by Earth's gravity before winging off into space again. The flyby will occur at about 1 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT).

"There is no risk of an impact, NASA scientists said. The space rock, estimated to be between 29 to 98 feet (9 to 30 meters) wide, is likely too small to survive a plunge through our atmosphere anyway. An asteroid this size, if it were mostly stony, would break apart and burn up before hitting the surface. Iron-heavy space rocks are better at surviving the fiery entry, however...."

There was quite a lot of science going on while 2011 MD whipped by Earth: and the odds of anything getting hit in the flyby were really, really low. It helps that the asteroid's orbit isn't in the ecliptic - the plane that planets orbit in. More or less.

The probability that it would hit something was not, however, zero. The asteroid shot by Earth about 7,500 miles out - closer than the uneven ring of geosynchronous satellites. They're 22,236 miles away, over the equator. Which isn't in the ecliptic, either - and that's another topic.

The good news is that 2011 MD wasn't going to hit Earth - and even if it had, it wouldn't have made it all the way to the surface. Probably.

The bad news is that, sooner or later, some hunk or rock, metal, or ice will hit Earth's atmosphere. And get all the way down to the surface. At which point kinetic energy in the asteroid/comet/whatever will be converted into heat. Quite a great deal of heat.

About a century back something exploded over Siberia. It wasn't a particularly big explosion, and there weren't any towns or cities nearby.

Eventually, something's going to hit Earth, near a city - or the rock will be big enough so that it won't matter where it comes down. Something big falling out of the sky probably helped kill off the dinosaurs.

City-Busting Asteroids, Budget Woes, and Congress

The American Congress has budget worries just now, so someone's almost certainly going to get the idea that they'll save money by cutting funding for science projects: like looking for asteroids. I've posted about that sort of thing before. (May 16, 2011)

Right now, that probably won't make any difference. Each year, the odds of some bit of debris from space falling on our heads is quite low. Same goes for each decade.

When it comes to centuries and millennia, though - that's different.

The Case of the Missing Witnesses

So, why don't we have historical records of a massive explosion that wiped out a civilization? These days, information about that sort of thing would be covered by Reuters and other global news agencies, data gathered and stored in archives all over the world - and probably retained for quite a while.

But what if the only witnesses didn't survive? The Siberian explosion didn't leave a crater - we might never know why some collection of ruins was abandoned.

Anyway, written records only go back a few thousand years - and that's another topic.

Related posts:

• "Mineral X From Outer Space!"
  (May 9, 2011)
• "Asteroid Apophis: Probably Won't Hit Earth in 2036 or 2068"
  (March 10, 2011)
• "Dinosaurs, Three Major Asteroid Impacts, and Massive Volcanic Eruptions"
  (August 29, 2010)
• "Asteroid 1999 RQ36 Won't Hit Earth in 2182: Probably"
  (July 30, 2010)
• "Proposed Commission for Planetary Defense: H.R. 5587 Makes Sense"
  (July 20, 2010)

Air France 447: How Not to Handle a Stall

Air France flight 447 was supposed to take 228 folks from Rio de Janeiro to Paris. Instead, it crashed into the Atlantic. Nobody survived.

That was in June, 2009.

Searchers found wreckage of AF 447 this year: on the floor of the Atlantic, more than a mile under water. They also recovered the flight's data recorders. Pieces of the 'black boxes,' anyway.

A French agency, the BEA, has been looking into why the Airbus fell out of the sky.

Part of the BEA report hit the news today.

Before getting into that, here's what the airline had to say about the accident, in part:

"...Air France praised the three pilots, who 'demonstrated a totally professional attitude and were committed to carrying out their task to the very end,' the airline said in a statement...."
(Wall Street Journal, via FoxNews.com)

That statement may be accurate.

The French BEA's early report shows that the Airbus engines were working normally when the airliner went into a stall: and during the three-plus minutes it took for the airliner to fall into the Atlantic.

The Airbus A330's pitot tubes, a sort of air speed sensor, are known to have trouble with icing. The pilots knew about that, or should have. The pilots also should have known what to do if the things iced up. And what to do if the airliner stalled.

Instead, they did the opposite.

Nose Down During a Stall: Not Up

"Black Box Shows Air France Captain Was Absent When Descent Began"
The Wall Street Journal, via FoxNews.com (May 27, 2011)

"The flight recorders from an Air France plane that crashed nearly two years ago show that the captain only arrived in the cockpit after the plane had begun its fateful 3 1/2-minute descent, officials said Friday.

"The initial findings of the French air accident investigation agency, the BEA, based on a reading of the black boxes recovered from the ocean depths, found that the captain had been resting when the emergency began....

"... 'At the time of the event, the two co-pilots were seated in the cockpit and the captain was resting,' a BEA statement says. The captain returned to the cockpit about 1 1/2 minutes after the autopilot disengaged at 2:10 a.m. and 5 seconds, Coordinated Universal Time....

"...Reacting to wildly fluctuating airspeed indications ... pilots of an Air France jetliner in 2009 continued to pull the nose up sharply - contrary to standard procedure - even as the Airbus A330 plummeted toward the Atlantic Ocean, according to information released Friday by French accident investigators.

"The long-awaited factual report, though it doesn't include any formal conclusions about the cause of the June 2009 crash that killed 228 people, provides details about a prolonged stall that lasted more than three and a half minutes. Throughout the descent, according to the report, 'inputs made by the [pilot flying] were mainly nose-up' and the 'angle of attack,' or the position of the longitudinal axis of the plane in relation to the airflow 'remained above 35 degrees.'

"If an airplane has entered an aerodynamic stall, which means its wings have lost necessary lift to remain airborne, from their earliest training pilots are taught to immediately push the nose down to regain speed, lift and maneuverability.

"The report also paints a somewhat unflattering picture of a seemingly confused cockpit, with the crew making extreme inputs to their flight controls and the engines spooling up to full power and later the thrust levers being pulled back to idle. At one point, according to the report, both pilots sitting in front of the controls tried to put in simultaneous commands....

"...Pilots are trained to avoid such simultaneous commands."

Oh, dear.

Figuring out what went wrong won't bring back any of the 228 people who died on Air France 447. But it might show how to keep another air crew from - apparently - making the same mistakes.

Related posts:

• "Air France 447: Part of a Black (Orange, Really) Box Found"
  Another War-on-Terror Blog (April 28, 2011)
• "Black Boxes are Fine: Glass Boxes Might be Better"
  (August 23, 2010)
• "Air France 447: Weather, Technology, and Questions"
  (June 13, 2009)
• "Air France Flight 447: What's Known, What's Not Known"
  (June 12, 2009)

More:

• "Crash Report Shows Confused Cockpit"
  Andy Pasztor & Daniel Michaels, Business, The Wall Street Journal (MAY 27, 2011)

A Dog, a Toddler, and a Long, Cold Night

"Family dog kept watch over missing 2-year-old overnight"
WIS News 10 (April 1, 2011, updated April 2, 2011)

"A missing 2-year-old boy in Elgin was found Saturday morning after Kershaw County deputies say the family dog kept him warm and safe all night.

"Sheriff Jim Matthews said 22-month-old Tyler Jacobson was reunited with his family after he was found across the street behind a neighbor's home when someone reported hearing crying in the area.

"Tyler was reported missing around 8:00pm Friday from a residence on Ashley Creek Drive. Matthews said the boy's mother, 25-year-old Jacklyn Marie Jacobson, and her boyfriend Jose Gloria told investigators Tyler went to get some juice and didn't come back.

"Kershaw County deputies used a bloodhound tracking team and a SLED helicopter with infrared capabilities, but called the search off around 12:30am Saturday. The search resumed around 7:45am, and the boy was found shortly thereafter. 'Just thinking that a dog would watch a baby over the night, it's kind of like a movie instead of real life,' said Emily DuBose, who lives in the house outside which the baby was found...."

Overnight temperatures were in the 40s, Fahrenheit: so besides a measure of security, the unnamed dog (unnamed in the article, that is) provided young Tyler with warmth.

As for the situation being "kind of like a movie instead of real life," the Lemming agrees that it's a bit like a premise for the old Lassie show.

On the other hand, dogs are proverbially loyal critters - some more than others, of course.

The Lemming's just glad Tyler had a guardian that night.

Sort-of-related posts:

• "Japan: Sort-of-Good News, the Emperor, and a Dog Story"
  (April 2, 2011)
• "Chaser and 1,022 Toys: The Dog Knows What Each One's Called"
  (December 25, 2010)
• "A Good Dog: Not Bright, But a Good Dog"
  (December 3, 2010)
• "One Cat, One Puppy, 30 Seconds of Cute"
  (June 22, 2010)
• "A Puppy, a Transmission, and a Happy Ending"
  (June 4, 2010)

Lemming Tracks: 2011: Japan's Worst Earthquake? Yes and No

Many of what the news has been calling "aftershocks" in Japan would, before the March 11, 2011, earthquake, have made international news as serious earthquakes. In the Lemming's opinion opinion, of course.

Japan's 2011 Earthquake: "Worst?"

The March 11 quake was the most powerful in Japan's recorded history, in terms of how much energy was released. Whether or not it's the "worst" depends, in the Lemming's opinion, on point of view.

Geology

From a geological/tectonic viewpoint: The earthquake was the most powerful in recorded history: Magnitude 9.0 on the Richter scale. (USGS) "Worst?" The Lemming isn't sure that "best" or "worst" are terms that apply to earthquakes - when considered as phenomena to be studied.

Economics

As far as the monetary costs are concerned, yes: this was the worst earthquake on record in Japan. Right now, it looks like it's going to cost Japan around $310,000,000,000. (FoxNews.com) Indirect effects, like folks in China, America, and elsewhere being afraid of spinach; folks from Japan cutting back on Hawaiian vacations; that sort of thing? The Lemming doesn't know, but suspects that it will be non-trivial.

Life

What about loss of life? That, in the Lemming's opinion, may be the most important measure of "how bad" the March 11 tremor and tsunami was. Folks in Japan are still finding bodies, and the final count may be upwards of 18,000 dead. That's tragic. But it could have been worse. A lot worse.

The 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake was only about 7.9 on the Richter scale. (March 11, 2011) Much less powerful than the 2011 event. But it killed about 140,000 people. If the Lemming's doing the math right, 18,000/140,000 is about 12.8%.

Assuming that the 18,000 estimated death toll is roughly accurate, and using human lives as the criteria, that makes the Great Kanto Earthquake seven or eight times "worse" than what's happening today. It's still bad - really bad - but yes, it could have been worse.

2011 isn't 1923

What happened? The Lemming thinks that what we're hearing about Japan's efforts to be ready for the next 'big one' paid off. Not perfectly: but 18,000 dead, bad as it is, isn't 140,000 dead.

Why the bigger price tag? Good question, and there isn't enough in what the Lemming's read to answer that. Inflation, maybe. Or maybe the cost is a reflection of Japan's prosperity: Japan had more expensive stuff to be broken.

Japan: Prepared, But Not Enough

This is not, in the Lemming's opinion, a good time to be working for Tokyo Electric. Not for anyone in the company who's connected with the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

Folks working at the plant have been risking their health and lives. The company's brass hats may not be in physical peril - but they've got a whole lot of explaining to do.

Even allowing for Monday morning quarterbacking, it looks like executives decided to deal with unpleasant realities by ignoring them:

"...An AP investigation found that Tokyo Electric Power Co. officials had dismissed scientific evidence and geological history that indicated that a massive earthquake - and subsequent tsunami - was far more likely than they believed...."
(FoxNews.com)

That, and missed inspections, may have made the quarterly spreadsheets look better: but when brass hats and bean counters go up against realty, reality wins.

Fukushima: It Could Be Worse

Even with at least one of the Fukushima reactors starting to melt, the situation could be worse. Journalists use Chernobyl and THREE MILE ISLAND!!! as reference points. The Lemming's discussed that before. (March 16, 2011)

Fukushima may edge out Chernobyl as the world's worst disaster involving a nuclear power plant, but the Lemming thinks the Soviet Union's record will stand. For a while, at least. Why? Two reasons, in the Lemming's opinion:

• 2011 isn't 1986
• Japan isn't the Soviet Union

Possibly-inadequate design and backup cooling systems that didn't last long enough notwithstanding - Japan's mildly-melting reactors have containment vessels, which are still (somewhat) functional.

A bad situation? Yes: but folks have learned quite a bit since 1986. Including what not to do with nuclear reactors.

Dangerous Technology? There's No Other Kind

The Lemming's made the point before: There's no such thing as a 'safe' technology. Flint knappers can get crushed or cut fingers, horse-drawn vehicles leave manure that's at least as hard to deal with a smog, and nuclear power plants melt on rare occasions.

The Lemming will grant that the scale of technological problems has increased over the last million or so years: but we've always lived with some level of risk.

There's an old cartoon, with a grouchy old (cave) man commenting on a crazy new technology: fire. "Just wait," he said, "some day it'll get out of control, and burn the entire village."

He was right: but instead of giving up on fire, the rest of us learned how to control it - and how to put out fires.

From today's news:

---

"Workers scramble to contain radioactive water at nuclear plant"
CNN World (March 29, 2011)

"Workers at Japan's crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant faced a difficult balancing act Tuesday as they struggled to keep reactors cool and prevent radioactive water from leaking into the ocean.

"Water has been a key weapon in the battle to stave off a meltdown at the facility since a March 11 earthquake and tsunami knocked out cooling systems. But tons of water have been pumped and sprayed to keep the plant's radioactive fuel from overheating, and the plant is running out of room to store the now-contaminated liquid.

" 'Now the focus is how to ... remove the water and contain it safely,' Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano, the government's point man for the crisis, told reporters Tuesday.

"The discovery of contaminated water in a maintenance tunnel that leads to the No. 2 reactor's turbine plant has sparked fresh concerns about the possibility of additional radiation leaking from the plant. Japan's nuclear safety agency said workers were using sandbags and concrete panels to keep the water inside the tunnel, which is located about 55 meters (180 feet) from the Pacific shore.

"Workers are also trying to pump water out of the turbine houses of the No. 1 and No. 3 reactors, according to the Tokyo Electric Power Company, the plant's owner. Lights were restored in the main control room of the No. 4 reactor, the utility said...."

"...'TEPCO is in an awful dilemma right now,' said Jim Walsh, an international security expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 'One the one hand, they want to cool the reactor and keep the reactor cool, so they have to pour water in. If there is a leak in one of the containment vessels, that water keeps leaking out. So they have a problem where the more they try to cool it down, the greater the radiation hazard as that water leaks out from the plant.'

"Japanese officials and international experts have said they believe there's been a partial meltdown at three of the plant's six reactors, and Edano reported Monday that the No. 2 reactor's containment vessel may be leaking...."

---

"Workers at Japan Nuke Plant 'Lost the Race' to Save Reactor, Expert Says"
FoxNews.com (March 29, 2011)

"Workers at the crippled Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant appeared to have 'lost the race' to save one of the reactors, a U.S. expert told the Guardian.

"Richard Lahey, who was head of safety research for boiling water reactors at General Electric when the company installed the units at the Japan plant, says the radioactive core in the Unit 2 reactor appears to have melted through the bottom of its containment vessel and on a concrete floor.

" 'The indications we have, from the reactor to radiation readings and the materials they are seeing, suggest that the core has melted through the bottom of the pressure vessel in unit two, and at least some of it is down on the floor of the drywell,' Lahey told the paper.

"Lahey did add there was no danger of a Chernobyl-style catastrophe...."

"...The struggle to contain radiation at the complex has unfolded with near-constant missteps — including two workers drenched Tuesday with radioactive water despite wearing supposedly waterproof suits. The unfolding drama has drawn increasing criticism of the utility that owns the plant as well as scrutiny of Japan's preparedness for nuclear crises.

" 'Our preparedness was not sufficient,' Edano told reporters. 'When the current crisis is over, we must examine the accident closely and thoroughly review' safety standards.

"An AP investigation found that Tokyo Electric Power Co. officials had dismissed scientific evidence and geological history that indicated that a massive earthquake - and subsequent tsunami - was far more likely than they believed.

"That left the complex with nowhere near enough protection against the March 11 tsunami.

"A massive offshore earthquake triggered the tsunami that slammed into Japan's northeast, wiping out towns, killing thousands of people and knocking out power and backup systems at the coastal nuclear power plant.

"More than 11,000 bodies have been recovered, but officials say the final death toll is expected to exceed 18,000. Hundreds of thousands of people remain homeless, their homes and livelihoods destroyed. Damage could amount to $310 billion — the most expensive natural disaster on record...."

---

Related posts:

• "Tuesday in Japan: Good News; Bad News; and Radiation Jitters"
  (March 14, 2011)
• "Part of Japan Jumped Eight Feet"
  (March 13, 2011)
• "Japan March 11, 2011, Earthquake: More Facts, Some Opinions"
  (March 11, 2011)

More:

• "Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of March 11, 2011: Posts"

Lemming Tracks: East Coast Air Travel; or, 'Oops'

First, the good news: Nobody got hurt.

Now, the sort-of-good-news: It's really quiet, that time of night, at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport.

Which may explain why the air traffic controller fell asleep.

Looks like the FAA may be re-evaluating having just one air traffic controller on duty on the late-night shift. About a year ago, the one (1) air traffic controller locked himself out of the control room.

Meanwhile, the fire is out at Miami International Airport.

It's been a big day for east coast air travel.

---

"Air Traffic Controller Is Suspended"
Timothy Williams, Jad Mouawad, with Anahad O,Connor, Julie Creswell contributing, The New York Times (March 24, 2011)

"The Federal Aviation Administration on Thursday suspended the air traffic controller who was on duty just after midnight Wednesday, when two passenger jets landed at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport without clearance or guidance from the control tower. The controller may have been asleep, officials said.

"No one was injured in the incident, which involved two airplanes carrying a total of about 165 people.

" 'The F.A.A. is thoroughly investigating Wednesday's early morning incidents at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport's control tower,' said Randy Babbitt, the agency's administrator. 'While that is taking place, we have suspended the air traffic controller from all operational duties. I am determined to get to the bottom of this situation for the safety of the traveling public.'..."

There's more: mostly about the F.A.A. fellow being outraged; and something's going to be done; and he when he was a pilot he wouldn't have landed that plane, no way, no how.

Also, this isn't the first oopsie at R. R. W. N. A.:

"...According to transcripts of the radio communication between the pilot and a controller at the Potomac center on Wednesday morning, a third aircraft also approached the airport during the incident on Wednesday. 'So you're aware, the tower is apparently not manned,' the controller told the pilot of the third plane, an American Airlines flight. 'We've made a few phone calls; nobody's answering. So, two airplanes went in in the past 10 to 15 minutes, so you can expect to go in to an uncontrolled airport.'

" 'Is there a reason it's not manned?' the American pilot is heard asking.

" 'Well, I'm going to take a guess and say that the controller got locked out,” the Potomac controller responded. 'I've heard of it happening before.'

" 'That's the first time I've heard it,' the pilot said.

" 'Fortunately, it's not very often,” the controller said. 'It happened about a year ago. But I'm not sure that's what happened now, but anyway, there's nobody in the tower.'

" 'Interesting,' said the pilot, apparently exasperated.

"After a few seconds, the Potomac controller reported, 'The tower's back in business.'

" 'That was a close call,' said the pilot, who sounded relieved.

" 'Wasn't it, though?' the Potomac controller replied."

Television news that the Lemming's heard has been careful to point out that Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport is pretty quiet after midnight, when this happened. And that it's several miles away from some of the most restricted airspace in the country. Or, looking at it another way, it's only miles away from some of the most restricted airspace in the country.

Still, like The New York Times pointed out, nobody got hurt. That's good news.

Meanwhile, near Miami, Florida:

---

"MIA fuel tank fire affecting flights into the evening"
WSVN-TV (March 24, 2011)

"Though the flames at Miami International Airport are no longer raging, the aftermath is still causing major travel troubles.

"Dozens of flights have been canceled following the fire that ignited late Wednesday night. The resulting fueling issues at MIA are expected to have a ripple effect into Thursday evening.

"Thursday morning, the aviation director spoke at the Miami-Dade Commission to explain what caused this fire. 'We think one of the 16 pumps that we have in line,' said Miami-Dade Aviation Director Jose Abreu. 'The problem is the underground infrastructure that connects these pipes was also aversely affected.'

"Abreu said the trigger was electrical in nature. 'I'm an engineer, and I go by the numbers,' he said, 'and based on what I've heard-- cause I was there up until about a few hours ago-- based on what I've heard from both the firefighters and the Miami-Dade Aviation folks, it was a short-circuit.'

"The blaze broke out at 11 p.m. at the airport's fuel farm, an area where fuel is stored for planes. Fire crews, including 110 firefighters, battled the flames into the early morning hours, at around 1 a.m., Thursday...."

More good news: nobody got hurt.

---

It's rough, getting suspended like that air traffic controller did. At this point, the Lemming hasn't a clue why the fellow dozed off. It could be anything from having to work shifts back-to-back, to carbon monoxide in the ventilation system, to putting decaf instead of regular in the thermos.

Whatever the reason - and whatever the F. A. A. decides to do about what they find out - the Lemming is glad that his traveling is of the virtual variety these days.

The Miami International Airport fire? That was one spectacular blaze: and the Lemming is very glad that nobody was hurt.

Sort-of-related posts:

• "TSA vs. Holiday Travelers: Radiation Exposure or 'Pat-Down' "
  (November 15, 2010)
• "Northwest Flight 188 Overshoots MSP - Time to Reconsider Humans on Flight Crews?"
  (October 23, 2009)
• "A Software Glitch, Vintage Computers, and FAA Air Traffic Control"
  (August 30, 2008)
• "Oops: Pilots Overshoot Runway by 359 Miles"
  (June 26, 2008)
• "Our Tax Dollars On Lunch Break?"
  (February 8, 2008)

Space Junk, Lasers, and Diplomacy

"Earth-based Lasers Could Zap Space Junk Clear From Satellites"
Charles Q. Choi, Space.com (March 17, 2011)

"Lasers on the ground could be used to nudge debris in orbit, which could help move dangerous space junk away from satellites and spacecraft, scientists working with NASA suggest.

"Space debris might not sound like much of a threat until one realizes that in low-Earth orbit, 'these objects are typically going at about 7.5 kilometers per second, or almost 17,000 miles per hour,' said physicist James Mason, a NASA contract scientist at the Universities Space Research Association. 'To put this in perspective, a 1-ounce piece of debris traveling at this velocity has about the same kinetic energy as a 2-ton car traveling at 60 miles per hour.'

"The problem that debris poses gets worse when collisions spawn even more debris, eventually cluttering space with high-speed shrapnel, a scenario nicknamed 'Kessler syndrome' after NASA scientist Donald Kessler, who predicted it in 1978.

" 'The February 2009 collision between an active Iridium sat-phone satellite and a defunct Russian Cosmos weather satellite was the first example of an active satellite being catastrophically destroyed in an accidental collision,' Mason said. 'Collisions like this were predicted by Kessler in 1978, and he predicted that if the number of debris in certain orbits got high enough then there would be a cascading series of collisions that might eventually render whole orbits unusable.'..."

Information Age services like GPS, television, telecommunications, and weather forecasting depend at least partly on satellites orbiting Earth. The growing collection of junk in orbit is a very practical concern. In the Lemming's opinion, of course.

Using lasers to vaporize bits of space junk, producing thrust/recoil that would nudge them toward Earth - where they'd burn out like meteors - is one way of disposing of the debris. Another would be to rendezvous with each individual piece and do about the same thing. Since there are "Hundreds of thousands of pieces of space junk," (Space.com (December 23, 2011)) it'd probably be cheaper and quicker to use lasers.

The good news is that we've got technology that could - with a bit of development and testing - start nudging orbiting debris out of the sky.

The bad news is that the technology would be seen as a weapon by some folks. And that opens at least one can of legal and diplomatic worms.

Somewhat-related posts:

• "Last Flights of the First Space Freighters, New Construction at Spaceports"
  (September 23, 2010)
• "European Space Agency Inheriting Huge Satellite, and Trouble to Match"
  (July 27, 2010)
• "Space Tourism and Virgin Galactic: Another Step"
  (July 17, 2010)
• "Bigelow Aerospace: Space to Rent or Lease, in Orbit"
  (January 20, 2010)
• "Over Four Dozen Space Agencies (and Growing?)"
  (February 28, 2010)

More:

• "Humanity in Space: The Next Few Decades"

Fukushima, Japan: (Somewhat) Good News, Bad News

First, the good news:

"Tokyo Electric Power Laid 1 Kilometer of New Power Line"
Natalie Obiko Pearson, Jim Polson, Bloomberg (March 19, 2011)

"Tokyo Electric Power Co. engineers have laid a new power line to the stricken No. 2 reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, the International Atomic Energy Agency said.

"The new line, measuring about one kilometer (0.6 miles), aims to restore power to the plant's cooling systems, which were knocked out by the earthquake and tsunami March 11, a company official earlier told a press conference on NHK...."

Someone described the emergency power line that Tokyo Electric strung to the Fukushima plant as "the world's longest extension cord." Which, in a way, it is.

More detail about what's been happening at the Fukushima power plant:

"Latest Reactor Status at Japan's Stricken Fukushima Nuclear Plant: Table"
Naoko Fujimura, Bloomberg (March 19, 2011)

"The following is the latest status of each nuclear reactor at Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi power plant.

"No. 1: Workers are ready to restore power to the No. 1 and No. 2 reactors, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Tetsuro Fukuyama said on NHK Television today. The reactor was damaged on March 12 by a hydrogen explosion that destroyed the building walls. The reactor is rated level five in terms of threat on an international scale of 1-7.

"No. 2: Engineers hope to use the power cable attached to the No. 2 reactor as a hub to restore electricity to the other five reactors, Tokyo Electric said. A March 15 explosion may have damaged the containment chamber. The reactor is rated a level five threat.

"No. 3: Firefighters sprayed to control the reactor between 2 p.m. yesterday and 3:40 a.m. today, NHK reported. Similar actions March 18 managed to replenish water in the spent-fuel pool...."

That, considering what's been happening in the Fukushima area lately, actually is good news. In the Lemming's opinion.

A slightly more chatty take on the same news:

"Electric power partially restored at Japan nuclear plant"
Thomas H. Maugh II, Los Angeles Times (March 19, 2011)

"Engineers restore power to cooling pumps at two of the buildings at the Fukushima Daiichi plant, but not to the most troublesome reactors yet. Meanwhile, manual spraying of seawater seems to be reducing radiation levels.

"Working overnight into Sunday, engineers have successfully restored power to cooling pumps in two reactors at the disabled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the first genuinely hopeful sign in the week-long battle to prevent a full-scale meltdown at any of the six reactors at the site.

"Although power has so far been restored only at reactor buildings 5 and 6, which were not considered a particular threat, that success suggests that workers are finally beginning to make some headway in their effort to prevent more radiation from escaping the plant...."

So, that's the good news: there's a better chance now, that there won't be more catastrophic failures at the Fukushima facility. Getting the place running again - or at least cleaned up so that folks can move back into the area - - - well, that's another story.

Now, the bad news:

"Radiation found in food as workers scramble to curb nuclear crisis"
CNN (March 19, 2011)

"As workers scrambled to curb a nuclear crisis Sunday, the Japanese government considered halting the sale of food from farms near the Fukushima plant after abnormally high levels of radiation were found in milk and spinach.

"Very small amounts -- far below the level of concern -- of radioactive iodine were also detected in tap water in Tokyo and most prefectures near the Fukushima Daiichi plant damaged by last week's monster earthquake and tsunami.

"Six members of the emergency crew at the plant have been exposed to more than 100 millisieverts of radiation per hour, the equivalent of getting 10 chest X-rays per hour, plant owner Tokyo Electric Power Company said...."

"...People are naturally exposed to about 3 millisieverts of radiation a year. The International Commission on Radiological Protection recommends no more than 50 millisieverts exposure in a given year for nuclear rescue and recovery workers. It offers no restriction in a crisis when 'the benefit to others clearly outweighs the rescuer's risk.'

"Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said levels of radiation exceeding safety limits stipulated by Japanese law were found in some samples of spinach and milk from the Fukushima and Ibaraki prefectures but authorities said the radioactive iodine-contaminated food posed little risk.

"Tainted milk was found 30 kilometers (18 1/2 miles) from the plant and spinach was collected as far as 100 kilometers (65 miles) to the south, almost halfway to Tokyo.

" 'Though radioactive iodine has a short half-life of about eight days and decays naturally within a matter of weeks, there is a short-term risk to human health if radioactive iodine in food is absorbed into the human body,' warned the International Atomic Energy Agency.

"A person who consumed the tainted food continuously for a year would take in the same amount of radiation as a single CT scan, Edano said. That's about 7 millisieverts or double what an average person in an industrialized country is exposed to in a year, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration...."

The first part of that last paragraph bears repeating, in the Lemming's opinion.

"...A person who consumed the tainted food continuously for a year would take in the same amount of radiation as a single CT scan ... That's about 7 millisieverts or double what an average person in an industrialized country is exposed to in a year..." (CNN) [emphasis mine]

That detail about just how big a risk the "tainted food" was - appears rather deep in the article. Which is standard 'inverted pyramid' reporting: an old journalistic standard, and another topic.

The point is that the "Radiation found in food" is - not much more than we're exposed to, just by living on this planet. It makes sense for Japan to have stringent standards for food - and to check what's being grown around the Fukushima power plant. In the Lemming's opinion.

But the Lemming hopes that folks won't take the "Radiation found in food" part of the news, remember that, and be scared of eating anything that's grown in northern Japan. Or in Japan.

Folks who survived having their towns destroyed and lives disrupted have, in the Lemming's opinion, enough trouble as it is - without having folks elsewhere shunning their exports.

Still - focusing on the (somewhat) good news: there's now a better chance that folks working at the Fukushima power plant will be able to get the situation under control. Before the radiation kills them.

Under the circumstances, that is (somewhat) good news. In the Lemming's opinion.

Related posts:

• "Too Much Radiation is Dangerous: Numbers and Background"
  (March 18, 2011)
• "Salt as a Radiation Sickness Cure: SALT?!"
  (March 17, 2011)
• "Seven-Point International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale: and a Ranting Lemming"
  (March 16, 2011)
• "Streaming News Video: NHK World, Japan"
  (March 16, 2011)
• "Refinery Fire, Disease Threats, and Maybe-Melting Reactors in Japan"
  (March 14, 2011)

More:

• "Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of March 11, 2011: Posts"

More:

• "Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of March 11, 2011: Posts"

Fukushima Power Plant: Explosion, Yes; Reactor, No

That is not a picture of the Fukushima reactor that exploded.

First, it's not the reactor at all.

Second, the reactor didn't explode.

Third, that's a picture of a petroleum tank in Minamisoma, Fukushima Prefecture. It was destroyed on March 11, 2011, a result of the earthquake. It's a Kyodo News photo, taken March 12, 2011.

It's an impressive photo, and a good illustration of the sort of destruction that Japan's dealing with just now.

It's not, in the Lemming's opinion, a good illustration of what's going on at the Fukushima power plant. The news service whose headline referred to 'reactor' and 'explosion,' over another, larger, version of that picture: changed the article. Good for them.

The Lemming's opined about journalists, news, and emotionalism before.

Fukushima power plant: Explosion

There really was an explosion at the Fukushima power plant. But not at the Fukushima power plant's reactor.

There's a difference.

"Explosion did not occur at reactor: Japan gov't spokesman"
Kyodo News (English) (March 12, 2011)

"Japanese authorities have confirmed there was an explosion at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant Saturday afternoon but it did not occur at its troubled No. 1 reactor, top government spokesman Yukio Edano said.

"The chief Cabinet secretary also told an urgent press conference that the operator, Tokyo Electric Power Co., has confirmed there is no damage to the steel container housing the reactor.

"Edano said the 3:36 p.m. explosion caused the roof and the walls of the building housing the reactor's container to be blown off. He said there has been no serious damage to the steel container of the reactor.

"The blast occurred as vapor from the container turned into hydrogen and mixed with outside oxygen, he added.

"As a precaution, the authorities expanded from 10 kilometers to 20 km the radius of the area to be evacuated by residents living in the vicinity of the Fukushima No. 1 and No. 2. plants.

"The top government spokesman said Tokyo Electric Power has begun operations to fill the reactor with sea water and pour in boric acid to prevent an occurrence of criticality, noting it may take several hours to inject water into the reactor. In addition, it will take about 10 days to fill the container with sea water, he said...."

More articles with a reasonable amount of detail about the Fukushima power plant's problems:

• "Blast did not involve reactor: Japan spokesman"
  The Mainichi Daily News (March 12, 2011)
• "No repeat of Chernobyl disaster for Japan-experts"
  Reuters Africa (March 12, 2011)
• "Japanese official says pumping system caused nuclear plant blast"
  CNN (March 12, 2011)

Elizabeth Piper, who put that Reuters Africa article together, deserves credit for researching the topic. Also for giving the names and positions of the "experts." And letting quite a bit of the "experts' " explanations through - not just the scariest little snippets. Kudos.

Godzilla, Rodan, and New Technologies

Television news here in America is ringing the changes on 'is nuclear power safe.' In the Lemming's opinion, nuclear power isn't safe. No technology is.

Not if "safe" means "absolutely guaranteed to never cause trouble."

We don't hear much about the perils of flint knapping these days - probably because most folks stopped depending on flint tools quite a while ago. It's a dangerous technology, though: a person could get cut, or mash fingers between stones.

As for fire: we've been using that for uncounted generations, and still burn down our dwellings occasionally.

The Lemming can't recall anyone seriously proposing that we stop using fire, despite disasters like the 1871 Chicago Fire, 1666 London Fire, or 1657 Furisode/Long Sleeve Fire. That, in the Lemming's opinion, is sensible. Fire is dangerous, no question about that. It's also very useful. Here in central Minnesota, we'd have a hard time surviving in winter if we didn't use fire - directly or indirectly.

Why no 'anti-fire power' protests? In the Lemming's opinion, it's largely due to folks having grown up with fire - in cultures that didn't exist when fire was first used. 'We've always done it that way.' It's been around for so long that the Lemming suspects that artificially generated, maintained, and directed fire is often regarded as "natural," like rain or sunlight.

There's a political angle, too, in the Lemming's opinion: but this isn't a political blog. Moving on.

Nuclear power isn't, as the Lemming opined, safe. Neither is any technology. Not "safe" in the sense of "absolutely harmless and reliable."

The Lemming thinks that nuclear power plants should be designed sensibly - like the one at Fukushima. That's just common sense, like making sure that LP gas storage tanks don't leak. The Lemming also thinks that, entertaining as movies starring Godzilla and Rodan are, and for that matter Hell Comes to Frogtown, nuclear energy is just one more technology: one that can be used sensibly, and with a reasonable degree of safety.

Although it's getting the bulk of the press, the nuclear power plants affected by the March 11 quake may not be Japan's biggest concern just now. Petroleum storage and processing plants caught fire during the earthquake and disaster - and at least one is still burning today.

And that's another topic.

Related posts:

• About technology - and getting a grip
  • "Cheeseburger Bill: Minnesota's Shocking Attack on Contemporary Values"
    (February 22, 2011)
    Particularly
    • Big Cheese is Victimizing You!
  • "Gliese 581g, Alien Angst, and the Lemming"
    (October 4, 2010)Particularly
    • The Inevitable Upward March of Progress, Angst, and Getting a Grip
  • "Nuclear Weapons, Space Aliens, Conspiracy Theories, and Getting a Grip"
    (September 24, 2010)
• Japan's nuclear power plants and the news
  • "Japan Nuclear Power Plants: Behind the Breathless Headlines"
    (March 12, 2011)

More:

• "Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of March 11, 2011: Posts"

Toyota Electronics and Federal Investigators: Good News; Bad News

"Electronic Flaws Did Not Cause Toyota Problems, U.S. Says"
Matthew L. Wald, The New York Times (February 8, 2011)

"After dissecting Toyota's engine control software and bathing its microchips in every type of radiation engineers could think of, federal investigators found no evidence that the company's cars are susceptible to sudden acceleration from electronic failures, the government said Tuesday...."

Good News, Bad News, and Dead Customers

The Lemming isn't sure quite how irradiating Toyota microchips helps folks figure out whether or not the equipment or software is glitchy. Maybe the idea is to simulate years of use. Of course, heat is a sort of radiation - and there's plenty of that by the engine.

Anyway, it looks like Toyota's electronic control system isn't what (allegedly) killed a few folks - and finally had Toyota recalling a mess of cars.

That's the good news, from Toyota's point of view.

The bad news is that the folks who were killed are still dead - and it doesn't take glitchy electronics to bollix up a car:

"...The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration concluded that the sudden acceleration was caused by mechanical problems in some Toyota models — sticking accelerator pedals and floor mat interference — that it had previously identified as causes.

"The findings, reached after a 10-month investigation, neither implicated Toyota nor exonerated it any further than had been the case after the earlier investigation.

"Toyota eventually recalled more than 11 million Toyota and Lexus vehicles globally because of floor mats and sticky accelerator pedals. It also paid three fines totaling $48.8 million, because, the Transportation Department said, Toyota had not reacted appropriately to reports of problems...."

Killing Your Customers and Other Boo-Boos

Toyota had a reputation for good engineering. Then they started selling lethal vehicles. That lapse in quality control was, in the Lemming's opinion, the first mistake.

The second mistake, again in the Lemming's opinion, was (apparently) trying to ignore the fatalities away. Maybe a decision-maker in Toyota decided that nobody would notice a few dead customers here and there. Maybe someone lost a lot of memos, so that decision-makers didn't know what was going on. The Lemming doesn't know.

That was then, this is now. Toyota seems to have stopped making booby-trapped cars: which was, in the Lemming's opinion, a very good idea.

An Executive, an Engineer, and a Set of Data

Another excerpt from The New York Times. This is a marvelous example of how executives and engineers tend, in the Lemming's opinion, to approach reality:

"...'The jury is back,' said Ray LaHood, the transportation secretary. 'The verdict is in. There is no electronic-based cause for unintended high-speed acceleration in Toyotas. Period.'

"An engineer from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, brought in to help conduct the inquiry, was slightly less categorical but still emphatic.

" 'It's very difficult to prove a negative,' said Michael T. Kirsch, a principal engineer with NASA's Engineering and Safety Center. But the electronic system for throttle controls in Toyotas would require two separate sensors to fail simultaneously in such a way that neither created an 'error code' in the vehicle's onboard computer...."

The Lemming's hat is off to the transportation secretary. It's nice to see such optimism, such certainty, such decisiveness. The Lemming wishes that the data seemed to back up the secretary's optimism - just a little more.

High Tech Or Not - A Mess is Still a Mess

It looks like Toyota's problem was with the low-tech end of their production - not the information technology. Presumably, that's been a tad easier to fix. But that's an assumption.

The Lemming is sincerely glad to have been well away from the process of finding out how Toyota managed to let lethal products get onto the salesroom floor. No matter what culture folks are in - foul-ups on that scale are, the Lemming thinks, embarrassing to deal with. At best.

Related posts:

• "Good News: A (Probably) Non-Lethal Toyota Glitch"
  (January 26, 2011)
• "United States Transportation Department Lies About Canada - or - Toyota Fouled Up. Again"
  (April 7, 2010)
• "Toyota Brakes: NASA Gets Involved"
  (March 30, 2010)
• "A Toyota Prius, Assumptions, and an Imperfect Witness"
  (March 13, 2010)
• "Toyota Cars Recalled: Again"
  (February 9, 2010)

Aerators in Minnesota Lakes: Good for Fish; For People, Not So Much

"DNR: Stay clear of aerators on lakes"
StarTribune.com (January 6, 2011)

"...As frozen lakes are aerated to help keep fish alive, officials are warning people to be careful around the open water.

"While aeration isn't a new concept, early winter storms have made it more difficult than usual for aquatic plants stuck under the lakes' icy surfaces to get sunlight and produce the oxygen that fish need.

"Consequently, some aeration systems are being turned on earlier than normal, and people need to be careful when they go out on the lakes to avoid the open water and thin ice, said Marilyn Danks, an aquatic biologist for the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources...."

The Minneapolis Star Tribune article says there are only about 270 Minnesota lakes with aeration systems in use this year.

If the Lemming did the math right, that means you've got about a 1 in 37 chance that the lake you snowmobile or ice fish on this winter won't have an aeration system in it. The odds are even slimmer, counting all the ponds, puddles, and damp spots that aren't big enough to count as "lakes" in this part of the world.

Minnesota's authorities recommend that folks use their brains. Lakes with operating aeration systems have signs at public access points that say so. And if a sign says "thin ice:" That means that the ice may be thin.

We're pretty good, in this part of the world, about recovering bodies. But, in the Lemming's opinion, it's better if folks use their heads and stay alive to enjoy another Minnesota winter.

Winter Storm: Here It Comes Again!

The Lemming opined on the way New York City, New Jersey, and central Minnesota deal with winter storms, yesterday:

• "New York City Blizzard, New Jersey Common Sense, and Central Minnesota Routines"
  (December 28, 2010)

It's not that high winds, bone-chilling cold, and smothering snow don't affect us. We freeze to death as easily as someone living in lower Manhattan.

The difference, in the Lemming's opinion, is that we've learned how to deal with inclement weather. Most of us, anyway. Those who don't, get rescued, move to places like New York City, or, well: die.

Here's a sample of how folks here in Minnesota and North Dakota are handling the current storm:

Winter Storm: North Dakota, Minnesota, December 30, 2010

"Stay Home!"
Valley News Live (December 29, 2010, updated December 30, 2010)

"UPDATED - 7:00PM THURSDAY, DECEMBER 30

"Interstate 94, Highway 10 to close at 7 p.m.

"DETROIT LAKES, Minn.— (6:30 p.m.) The Minnesota Department of Transportation and the Minnesota State Patrol will close Interstate 94 from Moorhead to Alexandria and Highway 10 from Moorhead to Detroit Lakes at 7 p.m. due to hazardous road conditions. The highways will remain closed until further notice.

"Snow plows will be pulled from all area state highways and interstates in Mahnomen, Clay, Becker, Wilkin, Otter Tail, Traverse, Grant, Douglas, Big Stone, Stevens, Pope and Swift counties. Motorists are advised not to travel until conditions improve and Mn/DOT and the Minnesota State Patrol open the roads.

"Motorists should plan accordingly. When a road is closed it is illegal to travel in that area. Motorists can be fined up to $1,000 and/or sentenced to 90 days in jail. In addition, if travelers need to be rescued from a closed road, other expenses and penalties will apply.

"UPDATED - 4:00PM THURSDAY, DECEMBER 30

"I-29 closed from SD border to Grand Forks; plows being pulled in south central and eastern part of state due to areas of zero visibility

"The North Dakota Department of Transportation (NDDOT) has CLOSED I-29 both northbound and southbound roadways from the South Dakota border to Grand Forks due to high winds causing near zero visibility. Conditions are such that they are creating a life-threatening danger to motorists. The roadway is impassable and it is against the law to drive past a road closure device on a closed road.

"South Dakota Department of Transportation has also closed I-29 from the North Dakota border to Brookings. For more information on South Dakota road conditions go to www.safetravelusa.com.

"Other road closures and notices issued by NDDOT:

"DDOT snowplows will be pulled from the roads at dark due to areas of zero visibility in Bismarck, Jamestown, Valley City, Fargo, Wahpeton, Hillsboro, and Grand Forks areas. The plows will resume operation early tomorrow morning if conditions are safe to be out.

"I-94 closed on both eastbound and westbound roadways from Jamestown to Fargo due to high winds causing near zero visibility along with glare ice conditions. Conditions are such that they are creating a life-threatening danger to motorists. The roadway is impassable and it is against the law to drive past a road closure device on a closed road.

"No Travel Advisory in effect for the south central and eastern portion of the state due to high winds causing blowing snow and areas of near zero visibility. Motorists should be advised that roadways may be reduced to a single lane or become blocked by snow drifts at structures and sheltered areas..

"Cities affected by the No Travel Advisory include: East of Bismarck, Flasher, Selfridge, Fort Yates, Linton, Napoleon, Steele, Jamestown, Valley City, Edgeley, Ellendale, Devils Lake, Carrington, Rugby, Rolla, Langdon, Casselton, Fargo, Wahpeton, Hillsboro, Grand Forks, Drayton, Cavalier, and surrounding areas.

"A Travel Alert is in effect for central North Dakota through Saturday morning. Conditions are such that motorists can still travel, but may experience hazardous winter driving conditions due to high winds causing blowing and drifting snow and reduced visibility. Motorists should be advised that snow drifts may be encountered at structures and sheltered areas and are encouraged to reduce speeds.

Cities affected by the Travel Alert include: Minot, Devils Lake, west of Bismarck and surrounding areas...."

Carnival Splendor? Good News: They Didn't Get Sick; Bad News: There Was This Fire - - -

The Lemming has never had one of those cruise ship experiences: visiting colorful, exotic places while staying in the luxurious comfort of a floating hotel. Can't say I'm sorry about that, either.

Some of my kinsfolk have both the resources and preferences it takes to enjoy something like that: and it sounds fun. For them. The Lemming has been quite content to leave the 'cruise ship experience' in that voluminous list of 'maybe someday' things.

This week's news hasn't exactly been an incentive to change my policy:

"Passengers disembark stricken cruise ship"
Cruise/Travel on msnbc.com (November 11, 2010)

"The first of nearly 4,500 passengers and crew aboard a powerless cruise ship have disembarked in San Diego.

"A line of about 20 passengers of the Carnival Splendor wheeled suitcases down a ramp Thursday morning as a crowd waited at the dock.

"The ship's elevators are not working, and port officials estimated it would take about four hours to get everyone off the ship.

"The nearly 1,000-foot liner was hauled back by six tugs after an engine room fire Monday left it without power off the Mexican coast.

"Passengers have been waiting in line to eat sandwiches and other cold food since the fire. Navy helicopters flew in tons of food and supplies from an aircraft carrier that was diverted from maneuvers.

"Escorted by Coast Guard cutters, the 952-foot Carnival Splendor reached the dock at about 8:30 a.m. PST Thursday. About 100 people onshore cheered loudly as the ship reached shore, while all along the harbor tourists, joggers and fishermen stopped to snap photos.

" 'We're so happy to be getting off. Everybody's been cheering and clapping,' passenger Sahizah Alim, 26, of Sacramento, said by cell phone.

" 'It's been like a nightmare,' she said. 'There's been no food, no power, no electricity, no flushing toilets. I spent the night tossing and turning in my cabin in the dark.'..."

"...'We're eating spoiled turkey sandwiches and warm milk and warm yogurt,' passenger Joey Noriega told ABC's 'Good Morning America' on Thursday. 'Everything smells like it's spoiled. ... Nothing's cooked. It's all sandwich meat. It's disgusting. You're afraid to eat it 'cause it's been left out and touched by everybody else on the ship.'..."

Sour Grapes and Tainted Food

As far as the Lemming knows, there weren't literally sour grapes on the Carnival Splendor. It's a reference to "The Fox and the Grapes," and that's another topic. Sort of.

Considering what's happening in Haiti, complaining about plumbing problems and warm milk may seem trivial, even 'insensitive.' That business about not liking food that was "touched by everybody else on the ship?" With a running start, the Lemming could probably make that sound like a prissy objection by some spoiled rich person.

That's not gonna happen.

The Lemming remembers the sixties, and thought some of the groovy ideas actually made sense. Like poor people being as important as rich people. What made me something of a misfit is that I took that sort of thing seriously - and think rich people are as important as poor people. Which is another topic, for another blog. (A Catholic Citizen in America (November 9, 2010))

Not that everybody on a cruise ship is rich. Folks who are on the crew are there to make a living - and some of the 'rich' passengers can afford their tickets because they've saved money over the last few decades for one-shot luxuries like this.

While the Lemming's ranting about money, folks helping the folks in Haiti could use some. List of charities. I've written about this before. "Haiti: About the Earthquake, Relief, and Related Topics."

Where was I? Cruise ship. Fire. Evolving turkey sandwiches. Right.

The Carnival Splendor folks didn't, apparently, get sick. Or haven't started showing symptoms yet. Let's keep a positive outlook. They didn't, apparently, get sick: and the fire only stopped the ship. It didn't kill anybody.

It's quite possible that the folks running these ocean cruises smelled the bacon, so to speak, and cleaned up their act. Or, more to the point, their food service and sanitary procedures.

Remember "cruise ship disease?"

"Cruise Ship Gastroenteritis Outbreaks Show Sharp Increase Since 2001"
Medical News Today (March 4, 2006)

"Cases of diarrheal disease in passengers on cruise ships increased during 2001 through 2004, despite good results from environmental health sanitation inspection of the ships, a new study has found.

"Researchers led by Elaine H. Cramer, M.D., analyzed cases of gastroenteritis reported on cruise ships calling on U.S. ports for a four-year period, in a study in the March issue of American Journal of Preventive Medicine.

"The study showed that gastroenteritis outbreaks per 1,000 cruises increased overall from 0.65 in 2001 to 5.46 in 2004. However, ship environmental inspection scores were high during this period, with an average of 95 on a 100-point scale.

"Noroviruses are the likely suspects, according to Cramer, medical epidemiologist with the Vessel Sanitation Program at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 'Since the introduction of more advanced laboratory techniques that can positively identify noroviruses, these viruses have increasingly been identified as associated with cruise ship outbreaks,' Cramer said...."

Bottom line? The Lemming's glad that nobody got killed: and hopes that there isn't too much fallout - medical or financial - from this SNAFU.

Sun Storms, "Solar Shield," and Getting Better Forecasts

"NASA's Solar Shield to Protect Power Grids From Sun Storms"
Nola Redd, Space.com (November 8, 2010)

"NASA has devised a new tool in the battle against massive eruptions from the sun: an early warning system to protect electrical grids on Earth from extremely powerful solar storms.

"The new project, called Solar Shield, is designed to predict the severity of powerful sun storms at specific locations on Earth to help power companies plan responses and limit the potential damage to their equipment.

" 'It amounts to knowing "something is coming and it may be big," ' said project leader Antti Pulkkinen, a research associate at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., told SPACE.com. But Solar Shield should provide 'much more specificity.'

"Massive sun eruptions

"The chief target for NASA's Solar Shield are huge sun eruptions called coronal mass ejections, or CMEs, which can shoot off billions of tons of plasma and charged particles...."

The Lemming thinks that "Solar Shield" sounds cool - and is stretching metaphors rather much, considering that it'll be a sort of enhanced weather forecasting system for solar activity.

Still, "Solar Shield" sounds better, and is easier to remember than "enhanced weather forecasting system for solar activity." The acronym for my version would be "EWFSSA." Which sounds sort of like what someone might say, after biting into a bad burrito.

"Solar Shield" sounds like a good name, after all.

This is a good time to get better - more detailed/specific - predictions for CMAs headed our way. The sun is going into a more active part of its cycle, so more of those storms will be heading our way.

The 'so what' is that just about everything Americans do involves electricity: and when those charged particles hit our planet, they can play hob with the power grid.

It's not just blackouts we can expect: equipment can get damaged. According to the article, it could take months to get everyone back online.

Here in Minnesota, that wouldn't be good. Particularly if the months without power started around this time of year. It gets cold around here: Pretty soon, water in lakes and rivers around here will become a mineral.

Driverless Van: Nifty Concept; Apparently Works

"Driverless van crosses from Europe to Asia"
Jo Ling Kent, CNN Tech (October 28, 2010)

"A driverless van has completed the longest-ever trip by an unmanned vehicle, beginning in Italy and arriving in China, covering 13,000 kilometers (8,077 miles), researchers said.

"The van arrived at the Shanghai World Expo on Thursday, after leaving Italy on July 20.

"The three-month trip took the van through Eastern Europe, Russia and Kazakhstan; across China through the Gobi Desert; and finally along the Great Wall, before arriving for a celebration at the expo. The driverless van relied solely on electricity...."

Quite impressive - and apparently legit. There's a sort of slide show that goes with the article.

Electric cars have come a long way: from golf carts with pretensions of practicality, to vehicles that somebody might actually pay good money for.

Apparently it's very important that this robotic car also is all-electric.

What impressed the Lemming is that - apparently - a robotic vehicle made it so far, without needing help. Again, technology has come a long way. Information technology in this case.

Then there's this odd ending for the article:

"...The European Research Council primarily funded the expedition, to develop technology to increase road safety and fuel efficiency by supplementing driver decisions at the wheel. The project used low-cost technologies that could be integrated in most current vehicles' chassis, researchers said.

"More than 1.2 million people die annually in auto crashes, according to the World Health Organization."

The implication, apparently, is that robotic cars will be really, really safe. After all, they'll use software in computers: and everybody who uses computers knows how absolutely reliable the are.

If self-driven cars include a dashboard screen display, they could give the "blue screen of death" a whole new meaning.

What Next: Robot Lifeguards?

"A robot lifeguard patrols Malibu"
Cindy Waxer, Innovation Nation, CNNMoney.com (October 25, 2010)

"Emily may not be the prettiest thing with plastic parts on bikini-riddled Zuma Beach in Malibu, Calif., but 'she' still turns heads.

"That's because Emily -- whose name is an acronym for Emergency Integrated Lifesaving Lanyard -- is a four-foot-long robotic buoy capable of racing through rough surf at 24 miles per hour. Emily's creators estimate that the robot can rescue distressed swimmers twelve times as fast as human lifeguards. Take that, David Hasselhoff!..."

"...The final result is a remote-controlled contraption powered by a tiny electric pump called an impeller, which squirts a forceful stream of water, much like the propulsion system on a Jet Ski. Manufactured by Mulligan's startup, a seven-employee company called Hydronalix in Sahuarita, Ariz., Emily can run up to 80 miles on a single battery charge. The device's foam core is buoyant enough to support up to five people, who cling to Emily's ropes until human aid arrives...."

It looks like a sawed-off red pontoon with a flag - and relies on the drowning victim being alert, and able to grab and hold on to the lines along its side. Also realize that the red torpedo is there to help.

"...'This is a classic example of an inventor's idea of how to solve a problem that doesn't necessarily coincide with reality,' says B. Chris Brewster, president of the United States Lifesaving Association. He notes that a robotic floatation device -- no matter how nifty -- can't save an unconscious swimmer...."

That's a reasonable point.

Still, that 24-knot 'swimming' speed is impressive. And well outside the envelope of what human beings can do.

The Lemming thinks that something like EMILY could be a lifesaver - literally - in situations where getting there fast is important.

Add a camera, arms, and artificial intelligence - and the 'uncooperative victim' issue is dealt with. That'd be a huge upgrade, of course.

Chile, Miners, Decisions, and a Long Shaft

"Evacuation of Chile miners 'likely to start Wednesday' "
BBC (October 9, 2010)

"Laurence Golborne: 'We are planning the process of rescue to start around this Wednesday... and should last for two days'

"The evacuation of 33 miners trapped underground in Chile is likely to start on Wednesday, the country's mining minister has said.

"Laurence Golborne was speaking after engineers had drilled through to the underground chamber where the miners are sheltering.

"He said the top part of the shaft needed a steel casing that would take about a day and a half to assemble.

"The miners have been trapped 700m (2,300ft) underground since 5 August.

"The drilling breakthrough came shortly after 0800 local time (1200 GMT) on Saturday, sparking celebrations across Chile...."

The BBC says that, at 66 days so far, this experience is "the longest suffered by a group of miners caught underground." Or, at least, the longest when the miners are likely to get rescued.

Getting them out will be a fairly complicated process - that will start with somebody else going down to join them:

"...The miners will then be brought up one by one in three groups: the fitter ones first, then the weaker ones, and finally the strongest of the group.

"But the evacuation will begin only after a doctor - who will be lowered to the chamber - has examined the miners...."

It sounds like the folks who are running this rescue effort are trying to be sensible about it. For example, the hole that's been bored down to the miners runs through exposed rock for most of its length - which doesn't seem very controversial, at first:

---

"Minister: Trapped Chilean Miners Expected to Be Pulled Out Wednesday"
Associated Press, via FOXNews (October 9, 2010)

"Chile's mining minister said Saturday night that the 33 miners trapped for more than two months will probably be pulled out starting Wednesday.

"That's because the rescue team has decided to reinforce less than 315 feet of the rescue shaft in steel pipe.

"The rest of the escape shaft is exposed rock, and the rescue team has decided it's strong enough to provide for a smooth ride for the miners' escape capsule.

"Mining Minister Laurence Golborne set the date after the shaft was inspected with a video camera Saturday following the completion of the hole earlier in the day -- a success that set off celebrations by the miners underground and by their families and rescue workers on the surface.

"Golborne and other government officials have insisted the decision on whether to reinforce the whole shaft would be purely technical, based on the evidence and the expertise of a team of eight geologists and mining engineers.

"The hole 'is in very good condition, and doesn't need to be cased completely,' Golborne said.

"He said 16 pipes, each six meters (nearly 20 feet) long, would be welded together and inserted into the top of the hole, which curves like a waterfall at first before becoming nearly vertical for most of its depth. The work would begin immediately, he said...."

Encasing the top 315 feet will keep the hole open, where it goes through fractured rock. The rest of the 2,000-odd foot shaft goes through solid rock. Given time, engineers and workers might be able to put a metal casing on the whole thing. Maybe.

"...While some miners' families wanted the entire shaft encased, some engineers involved in the rescue said the risk of the capsule getting jammed in the unreinforced hole was less than the risk of the pipes getting jammed and ruining their hard-won exit route...."

For the sake of everybody concerned, I hope that the rescue goes well. I think I can see how family members might feel like getting the entire hole sheathed in metal - it might seem more enclosed, sheltering, that way. On the other hand, it's probably best that the folks who are making decisions continue to do so based on "technical" considerations.

Related posts:

• "Chile, Miners, Rescue Capsule, Time: 'There's No Use Speculating' "
  (September 26, 2010)
• "Food, Water, Playing Cards, a Crucifix, and Statues of Saints"
  A Catholic Citizen in America (August 25, 2010)