Friday, March 11, 2011

Japan March 11, 2011, Earthquake: More Facts, Some Opinions

Before anything else, repeating from an earlier post:

Google has launched a 'people finder' for Japan, in Japanese, English, Korean, Chinese (simplified), and Chinese (traditional):

Japan's Big Earthquake: Why So Much News?

One of the bits of wisdom that appears now and again in 'how to blog' advice is - remember that you're writing for a blog, not a newspaper. That's not as off-topic as it seems, in a post about Japan's mammoth earthquake.

Today's earlier 'earthquake' post about was mostly excerpts from news about the earthquake off the coast of Japan, near Sendai. This post will be pretty much the same, except that some of the information is from U. S. government agencies.

The Lemming isn't forgetting that this is a blog. The ratio of facts to commentary in these posts about the Japanese/eastern Pacific earthquake is heavy on facts, since the Lemming's quite interested in the event. The Lemming is also not at all certain how long NOAA archives their data. Or Wired - although Wired seems to be pretty good about not making their non-current articles hard to find. And that's another topic.

Here's what NOAA and Wired had to say about the quake:

Sendai/Japan/Pacific Earthquake: Map, Data, and a Different Magnitude

"Message pacific.2011.03.11.223915"
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, NOAA's National Weather Service (March 11, 2011


That's a NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) page, with tsunami and earthquake information about the 05:46 UTC earthquake that hit Japan today. (March 11, 2011)

According to the page, the center of the quake was 24.4 kilometers, 15.2 miles, down at latitude 38.3° N, longitude 142.4° E.

The news has been reporting the magnitude of the earthquake as 8.9: which is the PTWC estimate. Looks like the USGS (United States Geological Survey) value for the earthquake's magnitude is 7.9: which is still a whacking great quake.

There's a map, showing earthquake's location. Also where a mess of other tremors were:


(from NOAA's National Weather Service, used w/o permission)

Here's a copy of the text-only version of that NOAA page:
000
WEPA40 PHEB 112239
TSUPAC
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 019
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 2239Z 11 MAR 2011
THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.
... A WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT ...
A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
 JAPAN / RUSSIA / MEXICO / FR. POLYNESIA / PITCAIRN / GUATEMALA /
 EL SALVADOR / COSTA RICA / NICARAGUA / ANTARCTICA /
 PANAMA / HONDURAS / CHILE / ECUADOR / COLOMBIA / PERU
THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES.  ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
 ORIGIN TIME -  0546Z 11 MAR 2011
 COORDINATES -  38.3 NORTH  142.4 EAST
 DEPTH       -   24 KM
 LOCATION    -  NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU  JAPAN
 MAGNITUDE   -  8.9
MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY
 GAUGE LOCATION        LAT   LON    TIME        AMPL         PER
 BITUNG ID             0.4N 125.2E  1727Z   0.26M /  0.8FT  26MIN
 ACAPULCO MX          16.8N  99.9W  2117Z   0.65M /  2.1FT  56MIN
 SANTA BARBARA CA     34.4N 119.7W  2041Z   0.76M /  2.5FT  10MIN
 MANZANILLO MX        19.1N 104.3W  2037Z   1.25M /  4.1FT  32MIN
 CABO SAN LUCAS MX    22.9N 109.9W  1906Z   0.22M /  0.7FT  10MIN
 LANGARA POINT BC     54.2N 133.1W  1539Z   0.52M /  1.7FT  26MIN
 RIKITEA PF           23.1S 135.0W  2014Z   0.21M /  0.7FT  30MIN
 RANGIROA PF          14.9S 147.7W  1822Z   0.29M /  0.9FT  08MIN
 LOTTIN PT NZ         37.6S 178.2E  1839Z   0.23M /  0.7FT  20MIN
 NORTH CAPE NZ        34.4S 173.0E  1846Z   0.23M /  0.8FT  32MIN
 PAPEETE TAHITI       17.5S 149.6W  1822Z   0.39M /  1.3FT  26MIN
 SUBIC BAY PH         14.8N 120.3E  1517Z   0.07M /  0.2FT  54MIN
 HONIARA SB            9.4S 160.0E  1436Z   0.26M /  0.8FT  50MIN
 NUKU HIVA MARQUESAS   8.9S 140.1W  1824Z   1.48M /  4.8FT  14MIN
 NUKUALOFA TO         21.1S 175.2W  1751Z   0.37M /  1.2FT  30MIN
 RAROTONGA CK         21.2S 159.8W  1813Z   0.29M /  1.0FT  08MIN
 WINTER HARBOUR BC    50.7N 128.3W  1505Z   0.47M /  1.5FT  30MIN
 FISHING ROCK RAOUL   29.3S 177.9W  1733Z   0.09M /  0.3FT  20MIN
 PORT SAN LUIS CA     35.2N 120.8W  1654Z   1.88M /  6.2FT  22MIN
 CRESCENT CITY CA     41.7N 124.2W  1657Z   2.02M /  6.6FT  20MIN
 VANUATU              17.8S 168.3E  1542Z   0.69M /  2.3FT  22MIN
 LUGANVILLE VU        15.5S 167.2E  1537Z   0.54M /  1.8FT  54MIN
 LAUTOKA FJ           17.6S 177.4E  1545Z   0.33M /  1.1FT  76MIN
 CHARLESTON OR        43.3N 124.3W  1545Z   0.49M /  1.6FT  24MIN
 NORTH SPIT HUMBOLDT  40.8N 124.2W  1553Z   0.54M /  1.8FT  26MIN
 KAUMALAPAU HAWAII    20.8N 156.9W  1531Z   0.91M /  3.0FT  06MIN
 LOMBRUM MANUS IS PG   2.0S 147.4E  1529Z   1.04M /  3.4FT  62MIN
 PAGO PAGO AS         14.3S 170.7W  1556Z   0.34M /  1.1FT  16MIN
 ARENA COVE CA        38.9N 123.7W  1540Z   0.82M /  2.7FT  22MIN
 PORT ORFORD OR       42.7N 124.5W  1534Z   0.52M /  1.7FT  16MIN
 MANUS PG              2.0S 147.4E  1425Z   0.93M /  3.1FT  34MIN
 HONOLULU OAHU        21.3N 157.9W  1410Z   0.71M /  2.3FT  32MIN
 KANTON KI             2.8S 171.7W  1425Z   0.05M /  0.2FT  10MIN
 CHRISTMAS KI          2.0N 157.5W  1447Z   0.56M /  1.9FT  52MIN
 KAWAIHAE HAWAII      20.0N 155.8W  1413Z   1.22M /  4.0FT  14MIN
 HILO HAWAII          19.7N 155.1W  1409Z   1.41M /  4.6FT  36MIN
 BETIO TARAWA KI       1.4N 172.9E  1225Z   0.21M /  0.7FT  24MIN
 NAURU                 0.5S 166.9E  1156Z   0.20M /  0.7FT  24MIN
 NAWILIWILI KAUAI     22.0N 159.4W  1343Z   0.76M /  2.5FT  12MIN
 DART 51407           19.6N 156.5W  1337Z   0.15M /  0.5FT  14MIN
 KAHULUI MAUI         20.9N 156.5W  1327Z   1.74M /  5.7FT  52MIN
 BARBERS PT HI        21.3N 158.1W  1308Z   0.70M /  2.3FT  64MIN
 TERN FR. FRIGATE US  23.9N 166.3W  1224Z   0.38M /  1.2FT  16MIN
 JOHNSTON US          16.7N 169.5W  1206Z   0.20M /  0.7FT  72MIN
 DART 52402           11.7N 154.2E  0931Z   0.29M /  0.9FT  22MIN
 DART 46403           52.7N 156.9W  1127Z   0.09M /  0.3FT  60MIN
 LEGASPI PH           13.1N 123.8E  1116Z   0.25M /  0.8FT  58MIN
 KWAJALEIN MH          8.7N 167.7E  1111Z   0.55M /  1.8FT  48MIN
 NIKOLSKI AK          52.9N 168.9W  1109Z   0.27M /  0.9FT  64MIN
 HANASAKI HOKKAIDO J  43.3N 145.6E  0656Z   1.83M /  6.0FT  24MIN
 MIDWAY               28.2N 177.4W  1048Z   1.27M /  4.2FT  12MIN
 TOSASHIMIZU SHIKOKU  32.8N 133.0E  0946Z   0.84M /  2.8FT  28MIN
 ADAK AK              51.9N 176.6W  1034Z   0.35M /  1.2FT  22MIN
 YAP FM                9.5N 138.1E  1013Z   0.15M /  0.5FT  88MIN
 DART 21415           50.2N 171.8E  0845Z   0.27M /  0.9FT  52MIN
 WAKE US              19.3N 166.6E  0928Z   0.39M /  1.3FT  14MIN
 NAHA OKINAWA JP      26.2N 127.7E  0901Z   0.25M /  0.8FT  60MIN
 SAIPAN US            15.2N 145.7E  0916Z   0.65M /  2.1FT  30MIN
 OMAEZAKI HONSHU JP   34.6N 138.2E  0818Z   1.42M /  4.6FT  56MIN
 DART 21419           44.5N 155.7E  0716Z   0.40M /  1.3FT  20MIN
 DART 21413           30.5N 152.1E  0659Z   0.76M /  2.5FT  32MIN
 DART 21401           42.6N 152.6E  0643Z   0.67M /  2.2FT  40MIN
 DART 21418           38.7N 148.7E  0619Z   1.08M /  3.5FT  06MIN
 LAT  - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
 LON  - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
 TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
 AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
        IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
        VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
 PER  - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.
 NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
        ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
         MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.
EVALUATION
 SEA LEVEL READINGS CONFIRM THAT A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED
 WHICH COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. AUTHORITIES SHOULD TAKE
 APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS THREAT. THIS CENTER WILL
 CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT AND
 SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.
 A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
 LARGEST. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND CAN VARY
 SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG A COAST DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. THE TIME FROM
 ONE TSUNAMI WAVE TO THE NEXT CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO AN HOUR, AND
 THE THREAT CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AS MULTIPLE WAVES ARRIVE.
 FOR ALL AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
 AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
 OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
 THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
 CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
 CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
 ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ALSO ISSUE TSUNAMI MESSAGES
FOR THIS EVENT TO COUNTRIES IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND SOUTH
CHINA SEA REGION.  IN CASE OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION... THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE INFORMATION SHOULD BE USED FOR SAFETY.
THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.
(from ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/text.php?id=pacific.2011.03.11.223915)

Japan's Biggest Recorded Quake: 1/100 Death Toll of Last Big One

"Earthquake Is Biggest in Japan's Recorded History"
Alexandra Witze, Science News, Wired Science, Wired (March 11, 2011)


(from NOAA, via Wired, used w/o permission)
"Image: A forecast for the tsunami caused by a magnitude-8.9 earthquake that struck off the coast of Japan on March 11, 2011. Heat-map colors show maximum tsunami height within the first 24 hours. (NOAA/PMEL/Center for Tsunami Research)"

"The magnitude 8.9 quake that struck off Japan's coast on March 11 will go down as one of the country's largest earthquakes.

"Even if its magnitude is downgraded in the coming days, as sometimes happens as more data are analyzed, the quake will remain a benchmark in a country that has seen many major quakes. It ranks fifth on the list of biggest quakes this past century. The Indonesian earthquake that spawned 2004's devastating Indian Ocean tsunami was a magnitude 9.1.

"Japan's monster earthquake struck at 2:46 p.m. local time, about 150 km off the coast of the island of Honshu. Japan is one of the world's most prepared societies when it comes to earthquakes, and a recently established early warning system broadcast alerts in many areas, including Tokyo, before the shaking began.

"Seismic activity in the region began with a magnitude 7.2 quake on March 3. Major aftershocks continue to rattle the area. The death toll is unknown...."

Japan's March 11, 2011, Earthquake: It Could have been Worse

By now, nearly midnight here in central Minnesota, the death toll is still unknown: but likely to be many hundred people - maybe a thousand. That's what the Lemming heard in the news, toward the end of the day, anyway.

This could have been a lot worse. Back to the Wired article:

"...The deadliest quake in Japan's history came in 1923, when more than 140,000 people perished in the magnitude 7.9 Great Kanto Earthquake. That tremor was centered southwest of Tokyo Bay. The March 11 quake struck more to the north, offshore from the city of Sendai...."
(Wired)

The total death toll from today's earthquake may go higher than 1,000 - folks in Japan are still busy, looking for survivors. And non-survivors. To make the fraction come out very evenly, let's say it turns out that 1,400 people lost their lives in this disaster.

Comparing this to the 1923 quake, that's 1,400/140,000: or 1/100 the death toll this time. Maybe.

One reason the number is so low this time around may be what's being discussed in the news: Japan has been making a priority of studying earthquakes - and developing technologies and procedures for dealing with them - for the last several decades.

Looks like all that effort may have paid off.

Earthquakes aren't Tornadoes

We don't get many earthquakes here in the upper Midwest. When we do, they tend to be big, and that's another topic. (July 30, 2010)

In this part of the world, its tornadoes that keep us on our toes. Among other things, like the sort of storm that's on the other side of the window at this moment. Yet another topic.

Bear with the Lemming, please: this really does connect to Japan's remarkable advances in earthquake tech.

Back in the Lemming's 'good old days,' the tornado warning system depended heavily on folks with a bit of training and really steady nerves deploying themselves where a tornado might develop. If they spotted one, they radioed in what they'd observed, and then tried to get out of the way. They were successful most of the time, happily.

Then we got radar that could 'see' inside those thunderstorms. We still have spotters: but these days there's satellite data, Doppler radar, and increasingly sophisticated software that quite often gives us several minutes to head for a shelter.

Folks in this part of the world don't get killed by tornadoes anywhere near as often as we used to. Which is one of the reasons the Lemming doesn't miss the 'good old days' all that much.

It's not that we're luckier today, than we were a half-century or so back. There's been a whole lot of new technology developed since the mid-20th century.

Which seems to be what's happened in Japan. Folks living there don't have to worry about tornadoes so much - but the same sort of change has made it possible for them to deal with earthquakes and tsunamis without so much loss of life.

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